Micro to Macro: Bizarro World Fantasy Baseball, More Pitching and SS Woes

So I haven’t talked about my fantasy baseball team in awhile. Last time I discussed the topic, I was struggling to find a SS when Troy Tulowitzki went down with quad injury? Well the last two weeks, I’ve been working on the 1st Quarter Report Cards and I’m happy to announce that Chase Utley and Carlos Quentin made the first team, while Josh Hamilton made the second team (AND he’s on the cover of SI this week. Go read his remarkable story!). On the pitching side, Brandon Webb and George Sherrill made the cut.

Before I get to my club, I will like to talk about a Sports Illustrated magazine article I read last week and it reads like the last two articles that I wrote for this website. The article mentions that the MLB season is in this state of “Bizarroism” where up-is-down-and-down-is-up—or at least that’s my understanding of how Bizzaro World works in the Superman comics. I hate Superman though so.... but the point of the article was to sum this wacky season of MLB, which includes more parity, an emphasis on giving younger players a chance, and a style of baseball not seen since the 1980s. It’s an entertaining and must read for any baseball fan, both fantasy and non-fantasy leaguers alike.

In that same article, entitled The Bizarro Supermen (the article mainly talks about the Tampa Rays), they have the All-Bizarro Team written by Nate Silver from the highly respected baseball juggernaut that is BASEBALL PROSPECTUS. They categorize players who are having surprising starts to this season as either “Real” or “Fluke.” A quick rundown of the players are as follows:

LF, Carlos Quentin—We both AGREE that his season is for REAL, but for different reasons. Mr. Silver’s explanation of Quentin’s great start was because he finally has a full time spot in the big leagues. My reasoning behind his success was because of pedigree (he’s always been a highly touted prospect), a well-noted high on-base%, and because of a shoulder injury that he didn’t recuperate from—until now. Although playing time has something to do with it, Mr. Silver made it seem that that was the only reason why Quentin is doing great so far this season.

CF, Nate McLouth—WE BOTH AGREE THAT HE’S A FLUKE.

RF, Ryan Ludwick—Though I haven’t given Ludwick an evaluation on this website, I also agree with Mr. Silver’s final assessment that he too is a FLUKE.

3B, Blake DeWitt—DeWitt was available in my league and was putting numbers to replace Justin Upton from my DH slot. But just like Silver, I looked at his minor league numbers and came to the same conclusion that his hot start can be considered a FLUKE.

SS, Ryan Theriot—Mr. Silver slots “The Riot” on the FLUKE list. I will reluctantly agree with Silver, but on a fantasy team, Theriot will find ways to make it on a fantasy roster. Remember, I spoke highly of Theriot a couple of weeks ago and would’ve picked him up if he were available (instead of Felipe Lopez). His true position on a baseball team is that of a utility infielder, but hitting #2 on a potent Cubs’ offense and his approach at the plate won’t hurt you. For you Roto-leaguers, I think he can hit over .285-.290, score 80+ runs, and will steal 25+ stolen bases.

2B, Dan Uggla—I mentioned in my Hitters’ First Quarter Report that Uggla has the ability to be the second best 2B in fantasy baseball, but just like Silver, his strikeout rate is alarming. Silver sums it best by saying that Uggla “has too many holes in his swings.” Nevertheless, based on his power numbers, we both feel Uggla is the REAL deal.

1B, Connor Jackson—We both agree that he’s for REAL.

C, Mike Napoli—Silver believes that Napoli’s power numbers are for REAL, but I think the low batting average (and based on his history, it will be difficult for him to get it higher than .250), his KO rate (strikes out roughly every 3 at-bats), and the fact that backup Angels’ catcher, Jeff Mathis already has 77 at-bats (to Napoli’s 103) and that leads me to conclude that he may not necessarily be a fluke, but he is not the best option at catcher for your fantasy team.

RP, Brian Wilson—Silver has him as a FLUKE because Wilson was saving 71% of the Giants’ victories. I believe, however, that the reason that Wilson is a major FLUKE is because his WHIP is at 1.64. No other RP with 10+ saves has a WHIP that high, except for Jason Isringhausen (1.78) and Eric Gagne (2.02) and they both eventually lost their jobs as closers (almost at the same time, by the way. Both are now on the DL). The 10+ K/9 rate is great, but only Frankie Rodriguez has a higher walk rate than Wilson and the H/9 rate is embarrassing with only the aforementioned Izzie and Gagne having rates higher than Wilson. At this rate, Wilson might end up losing the closer’s role soon (except that the Giants don’t have anybody else that can take the spot away from Wilson).

SP, Edinson Volquez—Silver thinks he’s for REAL. It seems that everybody in this world thinks Volquez is having the greatest breakout party since the i-Phone first became readily available. I’m not questioning the kid’s talent. He certainly has the goods and the right numbers to prove it. However, as I mentioned last week, until the walks go down, I’d be more cautious on Volquez’s hot start. Already, the BB/9 rate has slightly increased, but his H/9 has gone up slightly as well. I think he’s off to a FLUKY start and we’ve been burned by former Texas Rangers’ pitching prospects before (Volquez being an ex-Rangers’ prospect). Look for him to finish with a 1.30+ WHIP. The strikeouts will definitely be there, but the walks are insane for a pitcher who’s supposed to be part of the elite in terms of fantasy pitchers.

Ok, now on to my team. Felipe Lopez was not the SS I was hoping for. So far in the month of May, Lopez hit .226 with a pathetic .599 OPS. Meanwhile, teammate Cristian Guzman, who was available for me in early May, has been the second best hitting SS in our league for the month of May. Doh! Clint Barmes, a guy who I refused to pickup, ended up hitting .391 with a 1.077 OPS. Double Doh!!! All the warning signs were there, but I was blinded by Lopez’s hot streak in April. In my defense, the list of SS available was pretty thin after that first week in May. You guys saw the list in early May, it was very demoralizing. However, since Lopez is deciding to give every Felipe in this world a bad name, I had no choice but to succumb to the fact that I will be playing musical chairs at SS, either until Tulowitzki proves he’s back to his 2007 form or for the rest of the season (which defeats the purpose of keeping Tulowitzki for the 2008 campaign, geez!). There’s plenty of underachieving SS available in my free agent pool and for the next scoring period, Orlando Cabrera gets the first crack to see if he can be a formidable replacement on my roster at short (hey, a guy who is concern about his stats as much as I am is always a good sign! Think Rickey Davis when he was trying to achieve his first triple-double), which is proving to be a curse-filled position for me.

So we turn from my season-long SS saga to the fall of Nick Swisher who was my first pick in this year’s draft (a second rounder as I traded away my 2008 first round pick. Long story). Swisher was a great pick at that time because he qualified at multiple positions. It was a luxury to have a guy who had you covered in 2 OF positions and at 1B as I can concentrate on literally picking the best player available, regardless of position in subsequent rounds. Unfortunately, Swisher was nothing more than dead weight on my club. Final numbers for Swish went like this: .206 BA, .648 OPS, on pace to barely hit over 10+ homers for this season (when he was projected to hit 33), and was having career lows in Iso Power, and in the SECA categories. Worst of all, his Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) (look all the way to the bottom of this article for explanation of this stat) was at 28%. Combine that with a 3.24 RC/27 and you can’t even conclude that Swisher is just plain unlucky this early in this season, but that he might really be this bad! This is Felipe Lopez bad here! Swisher was replaced by Shane Victorino, who won’t hit for power, but at least he’s more consistent than Swisher at this point and is a threat for stolen bases, already on pace to steal 30. The on-base% is low for my taste, but Juan Pierre who is notoriously known for his low on-base% has proven to be a solid option in the OF for both H2H and ROTO leagues alike as his speed has been his meal ticket to fantasy rosters for years now. Also, you can’t ignore the fact that Victorino, over the last 21 days of play has been the second best CF in our league, with only Josh Hamilton in his way for first. Victorino was also a player that I coveted before the draft and now I finally have room for him in my roster. Here’s hoping he’s a better selection than Felipe Lopez.

I finally had to rid myself of Fausto Carmona. The inconsistency, the low K/9 rate, the walks and finally the hip injury was just too much to overcome for me. His replacement came down to Bronson Arroyo, Glen Perkins, and Brandon Backe—at the beginning of the 9th week in play. I chose Backe, but a new wildcard has entered the mix in Kevin Slowey who is only owned in 33% of Sportsline’s fantasy leagues and only a meager 1.2% at ESPN. He will more than likely be a two-start pitcher in fantasy week #10 and is worth the flier in all fantasy leagues right now. As far as the former three pitchers mentioned, keep a close eye on all of them. Arroyo might still be available in a lot of leagues and has a history of moderate success and has pitched better in his past three starts. Perkins, along with Slowey, and former Twin Matt Garza, has been a top prospect in the organization and was pitching well before he got a heavy dose of Yankee bats this week. And Backe was hyped in the off season as a pitcher with medium risk, medium reward late round selection. Since his World Series debut, he has started only 13 games in the past two seasons and when he does start, he has an extreme home-road splits that might be worth a spot start in daily leagues when he does indeed have a home game to pitch on a given week. The following table shows what these four pitchers have done in their last three starts (GdAO is Groundouts to Air Outs ratio):


INN Kd9 BBd9 Hd9 GdAO ERA WHIP BAA
Backe, Brandon SP HOU 18.7/7.2/1.0 /8.2/ 0.8 /4.34/1.02/0.239
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN 17.3/9.4/4.2/9.9 /0.9/ 3.12/1.56/0.271
Perkins, Glen RP MIN 18.0/3.5/2.0/11.5/0.6/4.00/1.50/0.315
Slowey, Kevin SP MIN 20.7/5.7/1.7/7.4 /1/1.74/1.02/0.227

Arroyo’s old K/9 rate was back to familiar territory but the walks are unbearable and he is prone to getting lit up based on his H/9. However, his three-year average is a lot lower than the average shown for his last three starts. If you have the roster spot, pick him up now. Continue to monitor Perkins and roll the dice with Slowey for the upcoming week.

The following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of baseball leagues at Sportsline or ESPN:
Dan Wheeler—With Troy Percival shelved on the DL for the Tampa Rays, Wheeler is the leading candidate to close games on an interim basis.
Jake Westbrook—As Carmona goes on the DL, Westbrook becomes Cleveland’s #3 starting pitcher. A possible 2-start pitcher in Week 10.
Pedro Martinez—Is expected to make his first start since coming off the DL June 3 against San Francisco.
Jason Bergmann—A fantasy dark horse in the off season (and being drafted by yours truly), Bergmann was sent down to the minors after struggling in his first three starts (I, in turn, dropped him from my roster), and after finding himself in the minors, has been lights out for the Washington Nationals (I picked him up in fantasy week 8, but have yet to start him though). He is more than likely available in your league. Forget the fact that he pitches for a horrible team, a good pitcher, is a good pitcher and this guy is a good pitcher.
Justin Masterson—As far as MLB transactions go, when a team calls up one of their top pitching prospects, fans and fantasy leaguers alike are highly excited and filled with anticipation to see if they can live up to the hype. Dice-K is on the DL and Masterson is rumored to take his turn in the rotation. In the off season, Sportsline mentioned that he doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters, but he induces a lot of ground outs. Well, in 2007, his K/9 rate was at a respectable 6.7. This minor league season, it’s at a whopping 8.9! Not bad for a groundball pitcher, huh? One big concern is that he also gives up a lot of walks. The BB/9 rate is almost at 3.5 in ’08 and in his two starts for the BoSox this season, his rate is at 5 already. He is a possible two-start pitcher for week 10. If you believe in the hype, go and grab him while he’s still available because odds are, he’s going by fast.

As written by,

Felipe Melecio
Currently Listening To: Against Me! “As the Eternal Cowboy”
Currently Playing: TimeSplitters: Future Perfect
Currently Digging: Metalocalypse: Season 1

Fantasy Baseball: First Quarter Report Card Part I

By Felipe Melecio

There are approximately 24 weeks in a fantasy baseball season. Approximate because not all leagues use up all 26 weeks of the season to come to a conclusion as to who they’re league champion is by the time October comes. Using simple arithmetic (4 weeks in a month; multiply by 6 months (6X4=24 weeks!), we can clearly see that a quarter of the season (six weeks already!) are up. I thought I’d take the liberty to give you a 1st quarter report of who the best ballplayers are as of May 12, 2008. The top two ballplayers at each hitting position were determined based on the point values that are used in this league, which if you have read last week’s article, you would know that it is a head-2-head, keeper league that I participate in. So let’s look at the players who passed the 1st quarter of the season with flying colors.

(For a statistics glossary, click here).

CATCHERS

First Team: BRIAN MCCAN-- .928 OPS; 7.24 RC/27; .366 SECA
Second Team: GEOVANY SOTO-- 1.003 OPS; 9.24 RC/27; .455 SECA
Analysis: Soto has the better numbers, but what gives the slight edge to McCann is that Soto has already struck out 32 TIMES! Mind you, Soto is still a rookie catcher and is still getting used to MLB pitching. Other than that, Soto has been everything a Cub fan (including yours truly) could ever want at that position. Soto batting avg will probably dip down to .275 and expect an on-base% of .350. Other than that, he’s shaping up to be a top 5 catcher and possibly a valuable commodity in keeper leagues. McCann, unlike Soto, is a 24 year-old veteran catcher and you should already know what type of player he is. He is also a top 5 catcher (along with Joe Mauer, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez), and should post up relatively similar numbers as Soto, with McCann’s batting avg hovering around .285-.290. All in all, great start by both these players.

FIRST BASE
1st: LANCE BERKMAN—1.235 OPS; 12HRs, 36RBIs; 13.09 RC/27
2nd: ALBERT PUJOLS—1.003 OPS; 2.92 BB/K; 11.26 RC/27
Analysis: Berkman leads all qualified hitters in OPS right now and is having another MVP-type year, ‘nuff said. Pujols leads all qualified hitters with a walk/strikeout ratio of almost 3! No other MLB hitter comes close to that number. Looks like that pesky elbow isn’t affecting Fat Albert’s ability to get on base, huh? Once again, ‘nuff said!

SECOND BASE
1st: CHASE UTLEY—1.089 OPS; 10.09 RC/27; 13HRs, 28RBIs
2nd: DAN UGGLA-- .977 OPS; .463 SECA; 11 HRs, 27RBIs
Analysis: The home run and RBI totals are pretty similar, but don’t let that fact deceive you from figuring out who the best 2B in the league is. It’s all about Utley, it is his world and he reigns supreme. Unlike Uggla, Utley finds ways to get on base and is not necessarily looking to hack the ball. He has more singles than Uggla (which leads to a higher batting avg. Take note you roto leaguers.), has scored 5 more runs than Uggla, and most importantly, is not wasting swings. Uggla has struck out an astonishing 39 TIMES already. He is on pace to KO about 170 times this year. Yikes! Despite the good stats for Uggla and he could arguably be the 2nd best 2B for the rest of the year, he is susceptible to long slumps just based on his alarming strikeout rate alone.

THIRD BASE
1st: CHIPPER JONES—1.161 OPS; 12.35 RC/27; .410 BA
2nd: KEVIN YOUKILIS--.996 OPS; .418 SECA; 8.73 RC/27
Analysis: I am a huge fan of Chipper Jones. Too bad for a good portion of his time he was on my keeper team; he was shelved on the DL. It’s a shame because Jones has always had the ability to terrorize opposing pitchers. Also, pay attention to the batting avg. He’s the only hitter batting over .400. However, as much as my heart believes he has the ability to hit .400 in a season, my head reminds me that he will probably hit around .300-.320, which isn’t shabby, but that also means that the OPS will dip anywhere between .970-.990, again those are great numbers but don’t expect Jones to carry your ball club all year long. He has to cool down sometimes, right? But then again, who would want him to? And everybody knows how I feel about Youkilis (and other fantasy leaguers would agree so this isn’t anything new so you BoSox fans, back off!), he’s annually the first-half MVP of any league, but by the time the second-half starts, his numbers begin to dip back to normal, which usually look like this: .285 BA; .385 on-base; .445 slugging%. Youkilis owners, enjoy it while it lasts.

SHORT STOP
1st: HANLEY RAMIREZ-- .985 OPS; 13 SB; .420 SECA
2nd:RAFAEL FURCAL—1.045 OPS; 5HRs!; 10.21 RC/27
Analysis: Ramirez is doing all he can to beat out the streaking Furcal for the title of best SS in fantasy leagues. Ramirez has the ability to steal 50 bases on any given year. Furcal’s high is 46 and has had trouble shaking off the injury bug (he already is down with a back problem). Furcal is motivated to play though as it is his contract year. Ramirez, just like his teammate Uggla, strikes out a lot already registering 28 early on in this season. Should be interesting to see if these two continue to go neck-in-neck for this title, but the smart money is on Ramirez as he is a young, elite talent, while Furcal is on the wrong side of 30.

The one common factor among the ten players mentioned is that all 10 players are in the top two in the OPS category in their respective position. Example, Furcal does actually lead all SS in OPS with a 1.045 mark. Ramirez is second in the position at .985. I hate to state the obvious, but anytime you want to fill out your roster, please, please, please always take into consideration the power of the OPS.

Next up is the OF. In my league, we split the OF position into three (LF, CF, RF). I’m aware that splitting the OF position like this is very rare in fantasy baseball, but that is the way I have listed the top OFs.

LEFT FIELD
1st: MATT HOLLIDAY--.945 OPS; 8.2 RC/27; .406 SECA
2nd:PAT BURRELL—1.042 OPS; 9HRs, 31RBIs; 9.70 RC/27
Analysis: Holliday is on a hitting holiday. We in the fantasy world have come to expect this type of production from him. He’s not even on pace to meet his 2008 projections and he’s still putting up numbers. That’s what they call talent. Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is a fantasy leaguer’s nuisance. His low batting average (career .259 hitter) and his high strikeout rate (he’ll fan anywhere between 130-160 times/year. He’s already on pace to K’out 140 times) makes him frustrating to own. He’s a slugger and you got him because of his run-producing ability. When he’s not hitting homeruns though, he’s probable to strikeout more times than not, usually prolonging his slumps. The reason he’s on a hot streak is because his OPS rate is above 1.000. Don’t, however, think that he’s undergoing a career year. The strikeouts should warn you that all his averages will dip back to normal. Expect his OPS to go back down to his 3-year average of roughly .900 (not bad, but that rate easily takes out Burrell from the elite).

CENTER FIELD
1st: NATE MCLOUTH—1.002 OPS; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.46 RC/27
2nd: JOSH HAMILTON--.903 OPS; 7HRs, 39RBIs
Analysis: McLouth has come out of nowhere to become a legit NL All-Star. He has never had a full-time role in his young MLB career with the Pirates. He is on pace to amass 600+ at bats, something he’s never done even in the minor leagues. I am not sure if he’ll be able to keep his spot as an elite OF, but his minor league numbers show that he has the ability to his .290 and his current on-base of .396 is not too far off from his average .376 on-base (based on his 4 best seasons in the minors). The homerun and slugging are bound to go down as he’s never been able to hit homeruns at his current rate before (currently, he’s hitting 1 dinger for every 16 at bats and is on pace to hit 40 this year) and McLouth has always struggled to hit for a .450 slugging% in the past. The only thing going for McLouth is that he is only 26 and might be entering his prime. But with no gradual improvement in the past, this could be a case of lightning being caught in a bottle for anybody who is involved with McLouth, including McLouth himself. Hamilton is another type of beast. He’s a former #1 overall pick (1999) who was evaluated as someone with loads of talent and huge upside. Unfortunately, a reported heroin addiction, forced him to leave the game. He’s back now and has been a great addition to any fantasy team. He showed glimpses of his untapped potential last season, before his year was cut short due to a season-ending injury. He already has 39 RBIs, but don’t expect him to continue his current 166 RBIs pace. Do consider him a better player than McLouth however. He’s always had the reputation of a hitter and should be able to record an OPS of .900+

RIGHT FIELD
1st CARLOS QUENTIN—1.001; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.42 RC/27
2nd XAVIER NADY-- .936 OPS; 5HRs, 34 RBIs; 7.94 RC/27
Analysis: Quentin was a highly touted prospect in the D’backs farm system, but lack of opportunity and a shoulder injury prevented him from reaching his full potential—until now. It seems that Quentin is finally healthy and proving all the scouts correct. Even when he was hitting around .220, his on-base was always hovering around .350. Quentin has always been an on-base machine and it looks like he’s matching it with his power. Continue to start him with confidence. Nady, throughout his pro career has always been able to slug for .450+. It’s the on-base that’s been a problem. Right now, he’s working on a career high .396 on-base rate, but odds are it won’t stay as high for the rest of the year. Nor will he continue to knock in runs at the current rate he’s going (on pace for 153RBIs). Don’t be surprised if he suddenly begins to struggle. Continue to start him if you must, but a strongly suggest you have a reliable backup in place.

DESIGNATED HITTER
1st: DERREK LEE-- .981 OPS; 10HRs, 26RBIs; 7.95 RC/27
2nd:CONOR JACKSON-- .978 OPS; 5HRs, 30RBIs; 8.57 RC/27
Analysis: Finally, we’re getting the season that we expect to get from Lee. He already has 10 homers. His career high is 46 and he’s on pace to perhaps match that number, but a conservative range of 30-35 homers is more realistic. He is setting a career high for on-base right now (.392) and his three-year OPS average (.975) shows that his 2008 .981OPS is not a fluke. Lee is finally fully healthy and is back to his old self again. CoJack is another D’back farmhand whose growth was delayed due to inconsistency and injury, but looks like he’s finally putting it together. He had a great 2nd half last season so a 2nd half meltdown in 2008 is not expect and best of all, his current numbers are comparable to what he was hitting in the minors. The knock on him is that he doesn’t hit enough homeruns, but the D’backs think that the power will come as he continues to develop. Continue to use him at 1B/DH/UTILITY with confidence.

Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitchers who have made the most noise in the 1st quarter of the season. Until then, remember that the baseball season is a marathon. Continue to keep tabs on your team, the waiver wire, and your rivals’ rosters to look for that player that will give you an advantage. PLAY BALL!!!