NFC West (Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals)
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview:
This was a team chock full of disappointment last year. Pick a fantasy football player . . . any fantasy football player, and there was disappointment to share. Alex Smith? check. Frank Gore? check. Darrell Jackson? check. Vernon Davis? check. Ashley Lelie? ouch. Odds are if you had to rely on 49ers last year, you didn't do very well. Therefore, Mike Nolan and the 49ers brass made some major changes. Adios Darrell Jackson. So long Trend Dilfer. Please welcome Mike Martz to run the new and (hopefully) improved offense (and maybe make something fantasy relevant out of Alex Smith). Enter new wide receivers Bryant Johnson (from Arizona) and Issac Bruce (from St. Louis), new (backup) running back DeShaun Foster (from Carolina), and new return man Allen Rossum (from Pittsburgh). If these guys can gel with the incumbents, and Martz can get the most out of them, then this team could be fantasy relevant again. That's a lot of ifs, though. Still, we saw what Martz did with a Detroit team that arguably had less talent to work with, especially at QB, so that at least bodes well for Alex Smith. This could also be the opportunity Bryant Johnson has needed to become fantasy relevant.
The defense was good, but not great last year (and even that is debatable). However, the really bright spot was rookie Patrick Willis, who was simply amazing at inside linebacker. The team is looking to add another player to give him some assistance on the inside, such as Takeo Spikes. The team also signed DE Justin Smith (from Cincinnati) to give them an impact pass rusher (because, he was just soooo good in Cincinnati, right? Still wondering why they gave HIM so much money since he was a colossal bust in Cinci). Avoid this defense in your draft.
The 49ers didn't draft anyone who will make a fantasy impact this year.
Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Bryant Johnson, WR
Johnson was signed away from Arizona to be the team's new #1 WR (replacing Darrell Jackson). Bryant has the size and speed to be a really good #2 WR on your fantasy team, and could really excel in Mike Martz's system. If Alex Smith can do a Jon Kitna impersonation, Bryant's fantasy value will soar in 2008.
Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: Frank Gore, RB
I'm still not sold on Gore. He's going to again be drafted in the mid to early first round, and he does have great skills. However, he's always been injury prone (even in college, which is why his draft stock fell), and he's a complainer. He could have a bounce back year, but the offense won't be built entirely around him, and I wonder if his touches will be reduced by both the addition of DeShaun Foster and the system of Mike Martz. I think he'll be good, but not worthy of his lofty draft status, which means he will again be a disappointment.
Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Vernon Davis, TE
Davis has a disappointing year last year. However, he (like Bryant Johnson) stands to benefit most from the new Mike Martz system. He could really blossom this year, as he has the skills to be a great receiving tight end in this league (like Antonio Gates and Jason Witten). I can see him being a great value pick in the mid to late rounds, and should finish as a top 5 TE.
Next Up: St. Louis Rams
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
2008 Preseason Fantasy Football Team Previews: Seattle Seahawks
For the next 32 straight days, I'll be going through the entire NFL and previewing each team from a fantasy perspective. Let's face it: what those of us who are really (and I mean REALLY) serious about our fantasy football championships want to know is who we can start keeping tabs on to make the most out of our fantasy football draft (which is right around the corner).
Many of us are ready for some FOOTBALL! (sorry . . . couldn't help myself; the NFL royalty fee is in the mail). So, here's a stroll down NFL fantasy lane to see what we can expect from each team this season.
NFC West (Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals)
Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Preview:
The biggest thing you will notice this year is the absence of Shawn Alexander. Just a few years ago, this guy was your NFL MVP. A few offensive line defections, a bad foot injury, and too many carries have led Mr. Alexander to the scrap heap today, as he was released in the offseason and replaced with (hold your breath here) Julius Jones from the Dallas Cowboys and TJ Duckett from Detroit. With a retooled offensive line and a new line coach, the Seahawks look to completely rework their running game. That could be interesting. This looks like it could be yet another running back by committee, with Maurice Morris still in the mix. Matt Hasselbeck should once again be a top 10 QB, and hopefully this will be the year that Deion Branch stays healthy for the entire year. With the loss of DJ Hackett, this could also be the opportunity Nate Burleson needs to step up and be a key fantasy contributor. Also, gone is long time fantasy mainstay kicker Josh Brown, who was replaced by Olindo Mare from New Orleans.
The defense again looks solid after returning standout linebackers Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson, and cornerback Marcus Trufant. This defense could be a value pick late in your fantasy football draft.
There were no rookies drafted that should make much of a fantasy impact this year, although John Carlson (TE, Notre Dame 6'6", 255lbs, 2nd rd pick) could be a good one down the road.
Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Julius Jones, RB
If he gets enough carries and the revamped offensive line comes together, he could have a breakout season and be a strong #2 RB. However, when he got the chance in Dallas last year to show what he could do, he was pretty underwhelming even behind a good offensive line. Still, if he is ever going to show that he has what it takes to carry a team's running game, this is the year.
Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: Olindo Mare, K
I had high hopes for Mare in the New Orleans offense last year, but not only did the offense not meet its 2006-2007 level of production, Olindo Mare just wasn't very good. Maybe a change of scenery will help this year, but I think he's on the downside of his career, and kicking conditions don't get much better than they were in New Orleans.
Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Matt Hasselbeck, QB
Matt Hasselbeck is consistently in the top 10 in production each year, but he is always a mid round draft pick or lower. You could do much worse than Hasselbeck as your #1 QB if you don't snag Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, and the draft value he carries will allow you to load up on top tier wide receivers or running backs.
Tomorrow: San Francisco 49ers
Many of us are ready for some FOOTBALL! (sorry . . . couldn't help myself; the NFL royalty fee is in the mail). So, here's a stroll down NFL fantasy lane to see what we can expect from each team this season.
NFC West (Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals)
Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Preview:
The biggest thing you will notice this year is the absence of Shawn Alexander. Just a few years ago, this guy was your NFL MVP. A few offensive line defections, a bad foot injury, and too many carries have led Mr. Alexander to the scrap heap today, as he was released in the offseason and replaced with (hold your breath here) Julius Jones from the Dallas Cowboys and TJ Duckett from Detroit. With a retooled offensive line and a new line coach, the Seahawks look to completely rework their running game. That could be interesting. This looks like it could be yet another running back by committee, with Maurice Morris still in the mix. Matt Hasselbeck should once again be a top 10 QB, and hopefully this will be the year that Deion Branch stays healthy for the entire year. With the loss of DJ Hackett, this could also be the opportunity Nate Burleson needs to step up and be a key fantasy contributor. Also, gone is long time fantasy mainstay kicker Josh Brown, who was replaced by Olindo Mare from New Orleans.
The defense again looks solid after returning standout linebackers Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson, and cornerback Marcus Trufant. This defense could be a value pick late in your fantasy football draft.
There were no rookies drafted that should make much of a fantasy impact this year, although John Carlson (TE, Notre Dame 6'6", 255lbs, 2nd rd pick) could be a good one down the road.
Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Julius Jones, RB
If he gets enough carries and the revamped offensive line comes together, he could have a breakout season and be a strong #2 RB. However, when he got the chance in Dallas last year to show what he could do, he was pretty underwhelming even behind a good offensive line. Still, if he is ever going to show that he has what it takes to carry a team's running game, this is the year.
Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: Olindo Mare, K
I had high hopes for Mare in the New Orleans offense last year, but not only did the offense not meet its 2006-2007 level of production, Olindo Mare just wasn't very good. Maybe a change of scenery will help this year, but I think he's on the downside of his career, and kicking conditions don't get much better than they were in New Orleans.
Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Matt Hasselbeck, QB
Matt Hasselbeck is consistently in the top 10 in production each year, but he is always a mid round draft pick or lower. You could do much worse than Hasselbeck as your #1 QB if you don't snag Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, and the draft value he carries will allow you to load up on top tier wide receivers or running backs.
Tomorrow: San Francisco 49ers
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Fantasy Baseball: First Quarter Report Card Part II
The following is a list of pitchers who passed the first quarter (or the first six weeks) of the MLB season with flying colors. Their performances were based on the point-value system of this league, and are based on the stats that were accumulated after all of the 05/11/08 games had ended. For a list of stats and their meanings, click here.
You will be reading about the Top 7 pitchers after six weeks of the season. I will summarize their outstanding start and will also determine what to expect in the second quarter of play.
1. Brandon Webb—WHAT TO LIKE? Webb is 8-0 with a WHIP of exactly 1 (I’m not even going to bother with decimal points!), a batting average against of .197, and an ERC of 1.85.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? A 6.59 K/9 is just a little low for my regular standards (by the way, it is my personal opinion that starting pitchers should be able to meet the following criteria: 7.5+ K9 and golf scores from the following: 3.5 BB/9, 8.5 H/9, and a WHIP of under 1.30. If these pitchers don’t meet most, if not all of the criteria, then there’s no use for them in the fantasy world). Not only does Webb not meet my K/9 standard (however, he is my fantasy ace. How’s that for a paradox?), but his rate is dragging behind his rate from last season, from his 3-year average, and even his career mark. This drop in the rate could be considered a slight concern as Webb’s strikeout totals have been somewhat inconsistent for most of his career.
ANALYSIS: Webb is having a career year in terms of ERA and WHIP. He is on pace to meet his 3-year average in Innings Pitched, strikeouts, and walks allowed. The one category in question is the hits allowed, which he’s on pace to finish at 169. He’s not going to shut down opposing batters every single game. He’s at 6.43 H/9 right now, but his 3-year average is around 8.40. Couple that with his low K/9 and you have a guy who can finish the season giving up 215 hits. He’s just not dominant enough to shut down opponents and as a sinkerball pitcher; he relies on hitters laying some wood on the ball. Sometimes, those balls put in play fall in for singles. Other than that, Webb is as consistent as you can get in the game and if you look up the word ACE in the dictionary, his picture would appear under the definition.
2. Cliff Lee—WHAT TO LIKE? Where to start is the better question. His ERC is at .54, a .60 WHIP, 7.86 K/9, and a 19.5 K/BB ratio! Wow, just wow!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? See stats above. Those numbers are so ridiculous, they’re almost alien. I’m not going to accuse the guy of steroid use, but those Kurt Warner conspiracy theorists should take a look at this guy as well (for those who don’t know, Gregg Easterbrook, one of my favorite columnists and a big influence in my writing had a running gag, nay, a conviction, that former NFL MVP QB, Kurt Warner was indeed an alien from another planet, playing football in human form. He probably wasn’t the only one with that thought, but he did have his own column). Warner—err Lee, has a BIPA of .202. Now you can take that in two ways: Lee is pitching so great, that he’s absolutely unhittable and is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Or you can be like me and believe that all pitchers eventually hit the BIPA norm of .300 sooner or later and that his numbers are going to skyrocket (in the wrong way) when hitters start figuring out what he’s doing differently this year, as opposed to years past.
ANALYSIS: See above. Lee was described to start the 2008 season as having “a trend of an increasing WHIP with a decreasing strikeout rate.” I do believe that is still true of this guy. You can look at his career numbers and judge for yourself, but his H/9 in the last three years is at 9.5 so he is not invincible. He should not be your team’s ace. He has the ability to be a good pitcher, but not someone you want carrying your fantasy pitching staff. You’re in a world of hurt if you do.
3. Ervin Santana—WHAT TO LIKE? .97 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 1.97 ERC. He has shown, heretofore, that his September performance from last season was no fluke.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Has a history of control problems and the inability to pitch on the road. His 3-year average WHIP is a concern.
ANALYSIS: It’s hard to tell with Santana because he is so young at 25 and it looks like his numbers from the first three years are not good indicators as to how he will do this season simply because he’s not the same pitcher or person from the last three years. He is very similar to Lee in the fact that both were demoted to the minors last season. The difference between him and Lee is that Lee is a veteran pitcher and we know what to expect from him. Santana still has a lot of untapped potential. The demotion from last season really did wonders for him and it has shown in his performance thus far. I’ll admit, I’m puzzled, but I do know that the .97 WHIP is a fluke, but more evidence from this year will be needed to make a complete analysis on this guy. Keep monitoring him and continue to use him as long as he’s pitching this well. He’s not an ace though and is not to be trusted with that role—yet.
4. Tim Lincecum—WHAT TO LIKE? 9.48 K/9 (Kerry Wood anyone?), 3.19 ERC, 5-1 pitching for the lowly Giants
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? That 1.25 WHIP is making me queasy and uncomfortable as his track record shows that he sometimes loses control of his stuff (Kerry Wood anyone?). His ERA is at 1.61. The ERC is still respectable, but something is just not adding up and the only conclusion I can come up is that his walks are going to drive you Lincecum owners completely crazy. Last season, his BB/9 was at exactly 4, he was projected by sportsline.com to hit the walk rate at 3.70+ and even if he finishes at 193 Innings Pitched (the average of the “on pace” and “projected” total of innings pitched), he’s still on pace to finish with a 3.5+BB/9. It is a major concern and Lincecum owners might want to trade him while his stock is still high. Keeper league owners might, MIGHT want to do the same as well, but the potential is there for Lincecum to be a dominant pitcher in the bigs.
ANALYSIS: As mentioned, Lincecum reminds me a lot Kerry Wood, except that Wood, in his best years, would be near unhittable. Lincecum’s H/9 is already at 8+ to start the season. Add to the fact that he can give up walks in bunches and fantasy baseball owners are in for a real roller coaster of a season. However, all hope is not lost for the season as the BIPA is already at .300, which means that there’s a good chance that he might finish the season with these numbers. The ERA will rise, but it won’t rise to ridiculous proportions. The WHIP should hover around 1.30 throughout the season. There’s still a good chance he might finish with a winning record just because he is so talented, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the .500 mark before the season ends. If you have the patience and immense pitching depth, Lincecum’s strikeouts alone should make him a good choice to start every week. You have been warned about the walks, nevertheless.
5. Roy Halladay—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.03 WHIP, 2.48 ERC, 4 CG!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Just like Webb, his K/9 is below 7. Halladay’s current 6.71 K/9 is actually above his 3-year average. The H/9 is also below his 3-year average, but he was projected to finish above the dreaded 8.5 based on his 8.6 H/9 from the past three years. Also has a disappointing 3-5 record pitching for the offensively anemic Toronto Blue Jays by 05/11/08.
ANALYSIS: Yes, Halladay is a very hittable pitcher! Halladay, however, pitches near perfect as he might scatter hits, but NOBODY is getting on base with a cheap walk. He has the ability to finish the season with a 1.5 BB/9! There is this thought among fantasy experts that pitchers who can’t get the K/9 between 7-7.5 are vulnerable to give up a lot of hits (as Halladay has shown already, unfortunately) because they’re not going to overpower hitters, meaning they’re going to give up a lot of earned runs and so rises the ERA. These pitchers have to be near perfect to be effective in this fantasy world of ours that we live. Even though Halladay has been categorized in that class of pitchers who can be described by that previous statement, Halladay is proving he’s not Brian Bannister. No, Halladay is a horse who will eat up a lot of innings and not give up walks at an alarming rate. He has shown he can pitch this way for years now so don’t worry about the lack of wins. They will come as they have before, and the low WHIP and ERA are good indicators that they will come in bunches like in years past.
6. Jake Peavey—WHAT TO LIKE? 8.56 K/9, 2.47 ERA; 1.08 WHIP
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? The fact that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. Oh, and that pesky sore elbow on the pitching arm. Yeah, that’s a big red flag if I ever saw one.
ANALYSIS: Peavy’s numbers were incredible as always and was off to a great start with the lowly Padres. The latest report showed no structural damage on his elbow after he had gone through an MRI. No timetable has been set for his comeback. It is a heavy blow for Peavy owners as pitchers like these don’t grow on trees. Don’t drop him just yet, but keep a very keen eye on his situation.
7. Chien-Ming Wang—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.13 WHIP, 2.39 ERC; 6-1 RECORD.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? He has the lowest strikeout rate among the top 7 at 6.23, however, he’s exceeding his projections and his K/9 from the last two seasons. Playing for a struggling Yankees team might affect his wins total, but was a healthy 6-1 by the end of the first quarter.
ANALYSIS: Wang is pitching very well thus far, but let’s not forget about his past. He usually gets a WHIP at about 1.25-1.30. Not bad, but that certainly doesn’t put you in the elite. Other pitchers who fall within this WHIP rate range are Braden Looper (ordinary 2:1 BB/K rate and the hit rate is well above 9+), Dana Eveland (.500 pitcher with a slightly higher K/9 ratio and sometimes has issues with control with a BB/9 of 3.80), and Mark Hendrickson (a ridiculously low K/9 of 3.75 and the H/9 is at 8.62). Those pitchers are top 60, but nowhere near the elite status that Wang is in, but all three have some similar weaknesses as Wang. Wang will give up hits and it’s doubtful he can keep his K/9 this high. What differentiates Wang from the Loopers of the fantasy world is that he does pitch for the Yankees, who might be struggling now, but by the end of the year, they should be one of the top teams in terms of W-L record AND he maintains the BB/9 rate at a very low rate (not as low as Halladay though). Wang must keep pitching this way in order to stay at the top with the elite.
THE NEXT 7
8. Jonathan Papelbon—THE GOOD: 11 Saves, .91 WHIP, 11.09 K/9, 1.75 ERC
THE BAD: He’s giving up a lot more hits than usual.
ANALYSIS: Let’s face it, he’s the best reliever in baseball, playing with arguably the best team in baseball. He’s simply the best.
9. Francisco Rodriguez—THE GOOD: 14 saves, a 2.64 ERC, and a H/9 of 6.14
THE BAD: A ridiculously low 6.14 (his 3-year average is at 12.07!) and a walk rate of 5.52 (3-year average of 4.02), and a high WHIP for a closer of 1.30 (1.15 is his 3-year average).
ANALYSIS: The ERA is the highest its been since 2003 and he’s on pace to not reach 90 K’s for the first time in his career, but he’s on pace to meet his projected goals in the walks, hits, and saves department and his WHIP from 2007 was at 1.25 and he’s capable of lowering the WHIP before the year is over. A solid reliever.
10. Carlos Zambrano—THE GOOD: 1.11 WHIP, 5-1 RECORD, 1.80 ERA
THE BAD: ERC is at 2.63 (still good, but almost a run higher than his actual ERA), K/9 is at 6.22 (3-year average is above 8+).
ANALYSIS: WHIP is at its lowest since 2005, but he’s on pace to not strikeout 170+ since 2003. Perhaps less strikeouts means less pitches thrown per game, which equals more durability. At any rate, pitching for the Chicago Cubs will almost guarantee he finishes with 15+ wins. A questionable ace, but definitely a stud.
11. George Sherrill—THE GOOD: 13 saves, 7.16 K/9, 3.42 ERC, 6.06 H/9 (lowest among the BIG FOUR relievers, with Joe Nathan being the other top save getter on the list).
THE BAD: 1.29 WHIP, which is a product of a 5.51 BB/9. The next RP with a similar WHIP is Jose Valverde who has a higher K/9 rate and a lower BB/9 than Sherrill gives up a lot of hits (the most hittable RP in the top 30 list based on his 8.84 H/9).
ANALYSIS: The reason Sherrill is racking up the saves is because the Orioles are winning and winning a lot of close games. The walk rate is unacceptably high even if its similar to K-Rod—Sherrill is not K-Rod! We don’t know if the O’s can keep winning at this rate, but so far it’s all good. Continue to ride the Sherrill hot streak, nay trade Sherrill while his value is this high.
12. Edinson Volquez—THE GOOD: 11.06 K/9, 1.23 WHIP, 1.06 ERA, 5-1 RECORD, 5.95 H/9
THE BAD: When I saw he only had a 2.17 K/BB ratio, I was puzzled as to why it was so low. Then I saw his BB/9 ratio and almost fainted. It’s at 5+! Worse, his ERC is at 2.53.
ANALYSIS: Volquez has become a national favorite among fantasy and non-fantasy fans of baseball. However, as you can see from the ridiculously high walk rate, he’s not as good as his ERA will indicate (that’s why ERA is no longer a viable way to measure a pitcher’s performance in fantasy—oddly enough, it is still used as THE stat to measure pitching performance in many roto leagues. And that is why I don’t like playing in roto-leagues), and unless he starts showing some control out there, I can’t buy the fact that he is a future ace for fantasy owners by 2010 (which would be the start of his third year as a full time starting pitcher). I firmly believe that as soon as hitters start figuring out this kid’s fastball, that hit rate will go up and all those guys Volquez is walking will finally come home. WHERE’S THAT PRECIOUS LOW ERA NOW? It will be up there matching his BB/9 at 5.00+.
13. Joe Nathan—THE GOOD: 12 saves, 1.14 WHIP, 9 K/9, 1.93 ERA
THE BAD: The ERC is at 2.80, 8.36 H/9 is a concern
ANALYSIS: The ERA will find its way to get over 2-2.10. As far as walks and hits go, he’s on pace to meet his 2008 projections. The K/9 rate is low, but he’s on pace to finish with his lowest K-total since becoming the Twins’ closer. Regardless, Nathan is a legit closer and a cornerstone in any fantasy pitching staff.
14. Aaron Cook—THE GOOD: 1.13 WHIP, 2.26 ERA, 6-1 RECORD
THE BAD: A 3.72 K/9 rate, .230 BIPA
ANALYSIS: It’s seems that every year, we get a really good stretch from Aaron Cook before the low K/9 rate catches up to him and drags him down the rest of the season. I have seen flashes from Cook like this before, but facts is facts, when a pitcher can’t strikeout batters, he has to be near perfect to eat up innings and be effective. Obviously, Cook is pitching as best he can as shown on the WHIP. However, the fact that the BIPA is only at .230 tells me that his great start to the season has been all luck and low skill. I don’t trust him and you should trust him either. Again, ride him out until its time for him to get dropped again or if you yourself are lucky enough, trade him at peak value and make out like a thief.
That ends Part II of this 2-part series. Last week, we talked about the top hitters who had the best first quarter of the season. This time, we talked about the pitchers. Of the 14, I say at least seven are the real deal, the other half are flukes and there’s a good chance that they might not show up on this list for the 2nd quarter. PLAY BALL!
You will be reading about the Top 7 pitchers after six weeks of the season. I will summarize their outstanding start and will also determine what to expect in the second quarter of play.
1. Brandon Webb—WHAT TO LIKE? Webb is 8-0 with a WHIP of exactly 1 (I’m not even going to bother with decimal points!), a batting average against of .197, and an ERC of 1.85.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? A 6.59 K/9 is just a little low for my regular standards (by the way, it is my personal opinion that starting pitchers should be able to meet the following criteria: 7.5+ K9 and golf scores from the following: 3.5 BB/9, 8.5 H/9, and a WHIP of under 1.30. If these pitchers don’t meet most, if not all of the criteria, then there’s no use for them in the fantasy world). Not only does Webb not meet my K/9 standard (however, he is my fantasy ace. How’s that for a paradox?), but his rate is dragging behind his rate from last season, from his 3-year average, and even his career mark. This drop in the rate could be considered a slight concern as Webb’s strikeout totals have been somewhat inconsistent for most of his career.
ANALYSIS: Webb is having a career year in terms of ERA and WHIP. He is on pace to meet his 3-year average in Innings Pitched, strikeouts, and walks allowed. The one category in question is the hits allowed, which he’s on pace to finish at 169. He’s not going to shut down opposing batters every single game. He’s at 6.43 H/9 right now, but his 3-year average is around 8.40. Couple that with his low K/9 and you have a guy who can finish the season giving up 215 hits. He’s just not dominant enough to shut down opponents and as a sinkerball pitcher; he relies on hitters laying some wood on the ball. Sometimes, those balls put in play fall in for singles. Other than that, Webb is as consistent as you can get in the game and if you look up the word ACE in the dictionary, his picture would appear under the definition.
2. Cliff Lee—WHAT TO LIKE? Where to start is the better question. His ERC is at .54, a .60 WHIP, 7.86 K/9, and a 19.5 K/BB ratio! Wow, just wow!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? See stats above. Those numbers are so ridiculous, they’re almost alien. I’m not going to accuse the guy of steroid use, but those Kurt Warner conspiracy theorists should take a look at this guy as well (for those who don’t know, Gregg Easterbrook, one of my favorite columnists and a big influence in my writing had a running gag, nay, a conviction, that former NFL MVP QB, Kurt Warner was indeed an alien from another planet, playing football in human form. He probably wasn’t the only one with that thought, but he did have his own column). Warner—err Lee, has a BIPA of .202. Now you can take that in two ways: Lee is pitching so great, that he’s absolutely unhittable and is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Or you can be like me and believe that all pitchers eventually hit the BIPA norm of .300 sooner or later and that his numbers are going to skyrocket (in the wrong way) when hitters start figuring out what he’s doing differently this year, as opposed to years past.
ANALYSIS: See above. Lee was described to start the 2008 season as having “a trend of an increasing WHIP with a decreasing strikeout rate.” I do believe that is still true of this guy. You can look at his career numbers and judge for yourself, but his H/9 in the last three years is at 9.5 so he is not invincible. He should not be your team’s ace. He has the ability to be a good pitcher, but not someone you want carrying your fantasy pitching staff. You’re in a world of hurt if you do.
3. Ervin Santana—WHAT TO LIKE? .97 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 1.97 ERC. He has shown, heretofore, that his September performance from last season was no fluke.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Has a history of control problems and the inability to pitch on the road. His 3-year average WHIP is a concern.
ANALYSIS: It’s hard to tell with Santana because he is so young at 25 and it looks like his numbers from the first three years are not good indicators as to how he will do this season simply because he’s not the same pitcher or person from the last three years. He is very similar to Lee in the fact that both were demoted to the minors last season. The difference between him and Lee is that Lee is a veteran pitcher and we know what to expect from him. Santana still has a lot of untapped potential. The demotion from last season really did wonders for him and it has shown in his performance thus far. I’ll admit, I’m puzzled, but I do know that the .97 WHIP is a fluke, but more evidence from this year will be needed to make a complete analysis on this guy. Keep monitoring him and continue to use him as long as he’s pitching this well. He’s not an ace though and is not to be trusted with that role—yet.
4. Tim Lincecum—WHAT TO LIKE? 9.48 K/9 (Kerry Wood anyone?), 3.19 ERC, 5-1 pitching for the lowly Giants
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? That 1.25 WHIP is making me queasy and uncomfortable as his track record shows that he sometimes loses control of his stuff (Kerry Wood anyone?). His ERA is at 1.61. The ERC is still respectable, but something is just not adding up and the only conclusion I can come up is that his walks are going to drive you Lincecum owners completely crazy. Last season, his BB/9 was at exactly 4, he was projected by sportsline.com to hit the walk rate at 3.70+ and even if he finishes at 193 Innings Pitched (the average of the “on pace” and “projected” total of innings pitched), he’s still on pace to finish with a 3.5+BB/9. It is a major concern and Lincecum owners might want to trade him while his stock is still high. Keeper league owners might, MIGHT want to do the same as well, but the potential is there for Lincecum to be a dominant pitcher in the bigs.
ANALYSIS: As mentioned, Lincecum reminds me a lot Kerry Wood, except that Wood, in his best years, would be near unhittable. Lincecum’s H/9 is already at 8+ to start the season. Add to the fact that he can give up walks in bunches and fantasy baseball owners are in for a real roller coaster of a season. However, all hope is not lost for the season as the BIPA is already at .300, which means that there’s a good chance that he might finish the season with these numbers. The ERA will rise, but it won’t rise to ridiculous proportions. The WHIP should hover around 1.30 throughout the season. There’s still a good chance he might finish with a winning record just because he is so talented, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the .500 mark before the season ends. If you have the patience and immense pitching depth, Lincecum’s strikeouts alone should make him a good choice to start every week. You have been warned about the walks, nevertheless.
5. Roy Halladay—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.03 WHIP, 2.48 ERC, 4 CG!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Just like Webb, his K/9 is below 7. Halladay’s current 6.71 K/9 is actually above his 3-year average. The H/9 is also below his 3-year average, but he was projected to finish above the dreaded 8.5 based on his 8.6 H/9 from the past three years. Also has a disappointing 3-5 record pitching for the offensively anemic Toronto Blue Jays by 05/11/08.
ANALYSIS: Yes, Halladay is a very hittable pitcher! Halladay, however, pitches near perfect as he might scatter hits, but NOBODY is getting on base with a cheap walk. He has the ability to finish the season with a 1.5 BB/9! There is this thought among fantasy experts that pitchers who can’t get the K/9 between 7-7.5 are vulnerable to give up a lot of hits (as Halladay has shown already, unfortunately) because they’re not going to overpower hitters, meaning they’re going to give up a lot of earned runs and so rises the ERA. These pitchers have to be near perfect to be effective in this fantasy world of ours that we live. Even though Halladay has been categorized in that class of pitchers who can be described by that previous statement, Halladay is proving he’s not Brian Bannister. No, Halladay is a horse who will eat up a lot of innings and not give up walks at an alarming rate. He has shown he can pitch this way for years now so don’t worry about the lack of wins. They will come as they have before, and the low WHIP and ERA are good indicators that they will come in bunches like in years past.
6. Jake Peavey—WHAT TO LIKE? 8.56 K/9, 2.47 ERA; 1.08 WHIP
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? The fact that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. Oh, and that pesky sore elbow on the pitching arm. Yeah, that’s a big red flag if I ever saw one.
ANALYSIS: Peavy’s numbers were incredible as always and was off to a great start with the lowly Padres. The latest report showed no structural damage on his elbow after he had gone through an MRI. No timetable has been set for his comeback. It is a heavy blow for Peavy owners as pitchers like these don’t grow on trees. Don’t drop him just yet, but keep a very keen eye on his situation.
7. Chien-Ming Wang—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.13 WHIP, 2.39 ERC; 6-1 RECORD.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? He has the lowest strikeout rate among the top 7 at 6.23, however, he’s exceeding his projections and his K/9 from the last two seasons. Playing for a struggling Yankees team might affect his wins total, but was a healthy 6-1 by the end of the first quarter.
ANALYSIS: Wang is pitching very well thus far, but let’s not forget about his past. He usually gets a WHIP at about 1.25-1.30. Not bad, but that certainly doesn’t put you in the elite. Other pitchers who fall within this WHIP rate range are Braden Looper (ordinary 2:1 BB/K rate and the hit rate is well above 9+), Dana Eveland (.500 pitcher with a slightly higher K/9 ratio and sometimes has issues with control with a BB/9 of 3.80), and Mark Hendrickson (a ridiculously low K/9 of 3.75 and the H/9 is at 8.62). Those pitchers are top 60, but nowhere near the elite status that Wang is in, but all three have some similar weaknesses as Wang. Wang will give up hits and it’s doubtful he can keep his K/9 this high. What differentiates Wang from the Loopers of the fantasy world is that he does pitch for the Yankees, who might be struggling now, but by the end of the year, they should be one of the top teams in terms of W-L record AND he maintains the BB/9 rate at a very low rate (not as low as Halladay though). Wang must keep pitching this way in order to stay at the top with the elite.
THE NEXT 7
8. Jonathan Papelbon—THE GOOD: 11 Saves, .91 WHIP, 11.09 K/9, 1.75 ERC
THE BAD: He’s giving up a lot more hits than usual.
ANALYSIS: Let’s face it, he’s the best reliever in baseball, playing with arguably the best team in baseball. He’s simply the best.
9. Francisco Rodriguez—THE GOOD: 14 saves, a 2.64 ERC, and a H/9 of 6.14
THE BAD: A ridiculously low 6.14 (his 3-year average is at 12.07!) and a walk rate of 5.52 (3-year average of 4.02), and a high WHIP for a closer of 1.30 (1.15 is his 3-year average).
ANALYSIS: The ERA is the highest its been since 2003 and he’s on pace to not reach 90 K’s for the first time in his career, but he’s on pace to meet his projected goals in the walks, hits, and saves department and his WHIP from 2007 was at 1.25 and he’s capable of lowering the WHIP before the year is over. A solid reliever.
10. Carlos Zambrano—THE GOOD: 1.11 WHIP, 5-1 RECORD, 1.80 ERA
THE BAD: ERC is at 2.63 (still good, but almost a run higher than his actual ERA), K/9 is at 6.22 (3-year average is above 8+).
ANALYSIS: WHIP is at its lowest since 2005, but he’s on pace to not strikeout 170+ since 2003. Perhaps less strikeouts means less pitches thrown per game, which equals more durability. At any rate, pitching for the Chicago Cubs will almost guarantee he finishes with 15+ wins. A questionable ace, but definitely a stud.
11. George Sherrill—THE GOOD: 13 saves, 7.16 K/9, 3.42 ERC, 6.06 H/9 (lowest among the BIG FOUR relievers, with Joe Nathan being the other top save getter on the list).
THE BAD: 1.29 WHIP, which is a product of a 5.51 BB/9. The next RP with a similar WHIP is Jose Valverde who has a higher K/9 rate and a lower BB/9 than Sherrill gives up a lot of hits (the most hittable RP in the top 30 list based on his 8.84 H/9).
ANALYSIS: The reason Sherrill is racking up the saves is because the Orioles are winning and winning a lot of close games. The walk rate is unacceptably high even if its similar to K-Rod—Sherrill is not K-Rod! We don’t know if the O’s can keep winning at this rate, but so far it’s all good. Continue to ride the Sherrill hot streak, nay trade Sherrill while his value is this high.
12. Edinson Volquez—THE GOOD: 11.06 K/9, 1.23 WHIP, 1.06 ERA, 5-1 RECORD, 5.95 H/9
THE BAD: When I saw he only had a 2.17 K/BB ratio, I was puzzled as to why it was so low. Then I saw his BB/9 ratio and almost fainted. It’s at 5+! Worse, his ERC is at 2.53.
ANALYSIS: Volquez has become a national favorite among fantasy and non-fantasy fans of baseball. However, as you can see from the ridiculously high walk rate, he’s not as good as his ERA will indicate (that’s why ERA is no longer a viable way to measure a pitcher’s performance in fantasy—oddly enough, it is still used as THE stat to measure pitching performance in many roto leagues. And that is why I don’t like playing in roto-leagues), and unless he starts showing some control out there, I can’t buy the fact that he is a future ace for fantasy owners by 2010 (which would be the start of his third year as a full time starting pitcher). I firmly believe that as soon as hitters start figuring out this kid’s fastball, that hit rate will go up and all those guys Volquez is walking will finally come home. WHERE’S THAT PRECIOUS LOW ERA NOW? It will be up there matching his BB/9 at 5.00+.
13. Joe Nathan—THE GOOD: 12 saves, 1.14 WHIP, 9 K/9, 1.93 ERA
THE BAD: The ERC is at 2.80, 8.36 H/9 is a concern
ANALYSIS: The ERA will find its way to get over 2-2.10. As far as walks and hits go, he’s on pace to meet his 2008 projections. The K/9 rate is low, but he’s on pace to finish with his lowest K-total since becoming the Twins’ closer. Regardless, Nathan is a legit closer and a cornerstone in any fantasy pitching staff.
14. Aaron Cook—THE GOOD: 1.13 WHIP, 2.26 ERA, 6-1 RECORD
THE BAD: A 3.72 K/9 rate, .230 BIPA
ANALYSIS: It’s seems that every year, we get a really good stretch from Aaron Cook before the low K/9 rate catches up to him and drags him down the rest of the season. I have seen flashes from Cook like this before, but facts is facts, when a pitcher can’t strikeout batters, he has to be near perfect to eat up innings and be effective. Obviously, Cook is pitching as best he can as shown on the WHIP. However, the fact that the BIPA is only at .230 tells me that his great start to the season has been all luck and low skill. I don’t trust him and you should trust him either. Again, ride him out until its time for him to get dropped again or if you yourself are lucky enough, trade him at peak value and make out like a thief.
That ends Part II of this 2-part series. Last week, we talked about the top hitters who had the best first quarter of the season. This time, we talked about the pitchers. Of the 14, I say at least seven are the real deal, the other half are flukes and there’s a good chance that they might not show up on this list for the 2nd quarter. PLAY BALL!
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Fantasy Baseball: First Quarter Report Card Part I
By Felipe Melecio
There are approximately 24 weeks in a fantasy baseball season. Approximate because not all leagues use up all 26 weeks of the season to come to a conclusion as to who they’re league champion is by the time October comes. Using simple arithmetic (4 weeks in a month; multiply by 6 months (6X4=24 weeks!), we can clearly see that a quarter of the season (six weeks already!) are up. I thought I’d take the liberty to give you a 1st quarter report of who the best ballplayers are as of May 12, 2008. The top two ballplayers at each hitting position were determined based on the point values that are used in this league, which if you have read last week’s article, you would know that it is a head-2-head, keeper league that I participate in. So let’s look at the players who passed the 1st quarter of the season with flying colors.
(For a statistics glossary, click here).
CATCHERS
First Team: BRIAN MCCAN-- .928 OPS; 7.24 RC/27; .366 SECA
Second Team: GEOVANY SOTO-- 1.003 OPS; 9.24 RC/27; .455 SECA
Analysis: Soto has the better numbers, but what gives the slight edge to McCann is that Soto has already struck out 32 TIMES! Mind you, Soto is still a rookie catcher and is still getting used to MLB pitching. Other than that, Soto has been everything a Cub fan (including yours truly) could ever want at that position. Soto batting avg will probably dip down to .275 and expect an on-base% of .350. Other than that, he’s shaping up to be a top 5 catcher and possibly a valuable commodity in keeper leagues. McCann, unlike Soto, is a 24 year-old veteran catcher and you should already know what type of player he is. He is also a top 5 catcher (along with Joe Mauer, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez), and should post up relatively similar numbers as Soto, with McCann’s batting avg hovering around .285-.290. All in all, great start by both these players.
FIRST BASE
1st: LANCE BERKMAN—1.235 OPS; 12HRs, 36RBIs; 13.09 RC/27
2nd: ALBERT PUJOLS—1.003 OPS; 2.92 BB/K; 11.26 RC/27
Analysis: Berkman leads all qualified hitters in OPS right now and is having another MVP-type year, ‘nuff said. Pujols leads all qualified hitters with a walk/strikeout ratio of almost 3! No other MLB hitter comes close to that number. Looks like that pesky elbow isn’t affecting Fat Albert’s ability to get on base, huh? Once again, ‘nuff said!
SECOND BASE
1st: CHASE UTLEY—1.089 OPS; 10.09 RC/27; 13HRs, 28RBIs
2nd: DAN UGGLA-- .977 OPS; .463 SECA; 11 HRs, 27RBIs
Analysis: The home run and RBI totals are pretty similar, but don’t let that fact deceive you from figuring out who the best 2B in the league is. It’s all about Utley, it is his world and he reigns supreme. Unlike Uggla, Utley finds ways to get on base and is not necessarily looking to hack the ball. He has more singles than Uggla (which leads to a higher batting avg. Take note you roto leaguers.), has scored 5 more runs than Uggla, and most importantly, is not wasting swings. Uggla has struck out an astonishing 39 TIMES already. He is on pace to KO about 170 times this year. Yikes! Despite the good stats for Uggla and he could arguably be the 2nd best 2B for the rest of the year, he is susceptible to long slumps just based on his alarming strikeout rate alone.
THIRD BASE
1st: CHIPPER JONES—1.161 OPS; 12.35 RC/27; .410 BA
2nd: KEVIN YOUKILIS--.996 OPS; .418 SECA; 8.73 RC/27
Analysis: I am a huge fan of Chipper Jones. Too bad for a good portion of his time he was on my keeper team; he was shelved on the DL. It’s a shame because Jones has always had the ability to terrorize opposing pitchers. Also, pay attention to the batting avg. He’s the only hitter batting over .400. However, as much as my heart believes he has the ability to hit .400 in a season, my head reminds me that he will probably hit around .300-.320, which isn’t shabby, but that also means that the OPS will dip anywhere between .970-.990, again those are great numbers but don’t expect Jones to carry your ball club all year long. He has to cool down sometimes, right? But then again, who would want him to? And everybody knows how I feel about Youkilis (and other fantasy leaguers would agree so this isn’t anything new so you BoSox fans, back off!), he’s annually the first-half MVP of any league, but by the time the second-half starts, his numbers begin to dip back to normal, which usually look like this: .285 BA; .385 on-base; .445 slugging%. Youkilis owners, enjoy it while it lasts.
SHORT STOP
1st: HANLEY RAMIREZ-- .985 OPS; 13 SB; .420 SECA
2nd:RAFAEL FURCAL—1.045 OPS; 5HRs!; 10.21 RC/27
Analysis: Ramirez is doing all he can to beat out the streaking Furcal for the title of best SS in fantasy leagues. Ramirez has the ability to steal 50 bases on any given year. Furcal’s high is 46 and has had trouble shaking off the injury bug (he already is down with a back problem). Furcal is motivated to play though as it is his contract year. Ramirez, just like his teammate Uggla, strikes out a lot already registering 28 early on in this season. Should be interesting to see if these two continue to go neck-in-neck for this title, but the smart money is on Ramirez as he is a young, elite talent, while Furcal is on the wrong side of 30.
The one common factor among the ten players mentioned is that all 10 players are in the top two in the OPS category in their respective position. Example, Furcal does actually lead all SS in OPS with a 1.045 mark. Ramirez is second in the position at .985. I hate to state the obvious, but anytime you want to fill out your roster, please, please, please always take into consideration the power of the OPS.
Next up is the OF. In my league, we split the OF position into three (LF, CF, RF). I’m aware that splitting the OF position like this is very rare in fantasy baseball, but that is the way I have listed the top OFs.
LEFT FIELD
1st: MATT HOLLIDAY--.945 OPS; 8.2 RC/27; .406 SECA
2nd:PAT BURRELL—1.042 OPS; 9HRs, 31RBIs; 9.70 RC/27
Analysis: Holliday is on a hitting holiday. We in the fantasy world have come to expect this type of production from him. He’s not even on pace to meet his 2008 projections and he’s still putting up numbers. That’s what they call talent. Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is a fantasy leaguer’s nuisance. His low batting average (career .259 hitter) and his high strikeout rate (he’ll fan anywhere between 130-160 times/year. He’s already on pace to K’out 140 times) makes him frustrating to own. He’s a slugger and you got him because of his run-producing ability. When he’s not hitting homeruns though, he’s probable to strikeout more times than not, usually prolonging his slumps. The reason he’s on a hot streak is because his OPS rate is above 1.000. Don’t, however, think that he’s undergoing a career year. The strikeouts should warn you that all his averages will dip back to normal. Expect his OPS to go back down to his 3-year average of roughly .900 (not bad, but that rate easily takes out Burrell from the elite).
CENTER FIELD
1st: NATE MCLOUTH—1.002 OPS; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.46 RC/27
2nd: JOSH HAMILTON--.903 OPS; 7HRs, 39RBIs
Analysis: McLouth has come out of nowhere to become a legit NL All-Star. He has never had a full-time role in his young MLB career with the Pirates. He is on pace to amass 600+ at bats, something he’s never done even in the minor leagues. I am not sure if he’ll be able to keep his spot as an elite OF, but his minor league numbers show that he has the ability to his .290 and his current on-base of .396 is not too far off from his average .376 on-base (based on his 4 best seasons in the minors). The homerun and slugging are bound to go down as he’s never been able to hit homeruns at his current rate before (currently, he’s hitting 1 dinger for every 16 at bats and is on pace to hit 40 this year) and McLouth has always struggled to hit for a .450 slugging% in the past. The only thing going for McLouth is that he is only 26 and might be entering his prime. But with no gradual improvement in the past, this could be a case of lightning being caught in a bottle for anybody who is involved with McLouth, including McLouth himself. Hamilton is another type of beast. He’s a former #1 overall pick (1999) who was evaluated as someone with loads of talent and huge upside. Unfortunately, a reported heroin addiction, forced him to leave the game. He’s back now and has been a great addition to any fantasy team. He showed glimpses of his untapped potential last season, before his year was cut short due to a season-ending injury. He already has 39 RBIs, but don’t expect him to continue his current 166 RBIs pace. Do consider him a better player than McLouth however. He’s always had the reputation of a hitter and should be able to record an OPS of .900+
RIGHT FIELD
1st CARLOS QUENTIN—1.001; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.42 RC/27
2nd XAVIER NADY-- .936 OPS; 5HRs, 34 RBIs; 7.94 RC/27
Analysis: Quentin was a highly touted prospect in the D’backs farm system, but lack of opportunity and a shoulder injury prevented him from reaching his full potential—until now. It seems that Quentin is finally healthy and proving all the scouts correct. Even when he was hitting around .220, his on-base was always hovering around .350. Quentin has always been an on-base machine and it looks like he’s matching it with his power. Continue to start him with confidence. Nady, throughout his pro career has always been able to slug for .450+. It’s the on-base that’s been a problem. Right now, he’s working on a career high .396 on-base rate, but odds are it won’t stay as high for the rest of the year. Nor will he continue to knock in runs at the current rate he’s going (on pace for 153RBIs). Don’t be surprised if he suddenly begins to struggle. Continue to start him if you must, but a strongly suggest you have a reliable backup in place.
DESIGNATED HITTER
1st: DERREK LEE-- .981 OPS; 10HRs, 26RBIs; 7.95 RC/27
2nd:CONOR JACKSON-- .978 OPS; 5HRs, 30RBIs; 8.57 RC/27
Analysis: Finally, we’re getting the season that we expect to get from Lee. He already has 10 homers. His career high is 46 and he’s on pace to perhaps match that number, but a conservative range of 30-35 homers is more realistic. He is setting a career high for on-base right now (.392) and his three-year OPS average (.975) shows that his 2008 .981OPS is not a fluke. Lee is finally fully healthy and is back to his old self again. CoJack is another D’back farmhand whose growth was delayed due to inconsistency and injury, but looks like he’s finally putting it together. He had a great 2nd half last season so a 2nd half meltdown in 2008 is not expect and best of all, his current numbers are comparable to what he was hitting in the minors. The knock on him is that he doesn’t hit enough homeruns, but the D’backs think that the power will come as he continues to develop. Continue to use him at 1B/DH/UTILITY with confidence.
Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitchers who have made the most noise in the 1st quarter of the season. Until then, remember that the baseball season is a marathon. Continue to keep tabs on your team, the waiver wire, and your rivals’ rosters to look for that player that will give you an advantage. PLAY BALL!!!
There are approximately 24 weeks in a fantasy baseball season. Approximate because not all leagues use up all 26 weeks of the season to come to a conclusion as to who they’re league champion is by the time October comes. Using simple arithmetic (4 weeks in a month; multiply by 6 months (6X4=24 weeks!), we can clearly see that a quarter of the season (six weeks already!) are up. I thought I’d take the liberty to give you a 1st quarter report of who the best ballplayers are as of May 12, 2008. The top two ballplayers at each hitting position were determined based on the point values that are used in this league, which if you have read last week’s article, you would know that it is a head-2-head, keeper league that I participate in. So let’s look at the players who passed the 1st quarter of the season with flying colors.
(For a statistics glossary, click here).
CATCHERS
First Team: BRIAN MCCAN-- .928 OPS; 7.24 RC/27; .366 SECA
Second Team: GEOVANY SOTO-- 1.003 OPS; 9.24 RC/27; .455 SECA
Analysis: Soto has the better numbers, but what gives the slight edge to McCann is that Soto has already struck out 32 TIMES! Mind you, Soto is still a rookie catcher and is still getting used to MLB pitching. Other than that, Soto has been everything a Cub fan (including yours truly) could ever want at that position. Soto batting avg will probably dip down to .275 and expect an on-base% of .350. Other than that, he’s shaping up to be a top 5 catcher and possibly a valuable commodity in keeper leagues. McCann, unlike Soto, is a 24 year-old veteran catcher and you should already know what type of player he is. He is also a top 5 catcher (along with Joe Mauer, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez), and should post up relatively similar numbers as Soto, with McCann’s batting avg hovering around .285-.290. All in all, great start by both these players.
FIRST BASE
1st: LANCE BERKMAN—1.235 OPS; 12HRs, 36RBIs; 13.09 RC/27
2nd: ALBERT PUJOLS—1.003 OPS; 2.92 BB/K; 11.26 RC/27
Analysis: Berkman leads all qualified hitters in OPS right now and is having another MVP-type year, ‘nuff said. Pujols leads all qualified hitters with a walk/strikeout ratio of almost 3! No other MLB hitter comes close to that number. Looks like that pesky elbow isn’t affecting Fat Albert’s ability to get on base, huh? Once again, ‘nuff said!
SECOND BASE
1st: CHASE UTLEY—1.089 OPS; 10.09 RC/27; 13HRs, 28RBIs
2nd: DAN UGGLA-- .977 OPS; .463 SECA; 11 HRs, 27RBIs
Analysis: The home run and RBI totals are pretty similar, but don’t let that fact deceive you from figuring out who the best 2B in the league is. It’s all about Utley, it is his world and he reigns supreme. Unlike Uggla, Utley finds ways to get on base and is not necessarily looking to hack the ball. He has more singles than Uggla (which leads to a higher batting avg. Take note you roto leaguers.), has scored 5 more runs than Uggla, and most importantly, is not wasting swings. Uggla has struck out an astonishing 39 TIMES already. He is on pace to KO about 170 times this year. Yikes! Despite the good stats for Uggla and he could arguably be the 2nd best 2B for the rest of the year, he is susceptible to long slumps just based on his alarming strikeout rate alone.
THIRD BASE
1st: CHIPPER JONES—1.161 OPS; 12.35 RC/27; .410 BA
2nd: KEVIN YOUKILIS--.996 OPS; .418 SECA; 8.73 RC/27
Analysis: I am a huge fan of Chipper Jones. Too bad for a good portion of his time he was on my keeper team; he was shelved on the DL. It’s a shame because Jones has always had the ability to terrorize opposing pitchers. Also, pay attention to the batting avg. He’s the only hitter batting over .400. However, as much as my heart believes he has the ability to hit .400 in a season, my head reminds me that he will probably hit around .300-.320, which isn’t shabby, but that also means that the OPS will dip anywhere between .970-.990, again those are great numbers but don’t expect Jones to carry your ball club all year long. He has to cool down sometimes, right? But then again, who would want him to? And everybody knows how I feel about Youkilis (and other fantasy leaguers would agree so this isn’t anything new so you BoSox fans, back off!), he’s annually the first-half MVP of any league, but by the time the second-half starts, his numbers begin to dip back to normal, which usually look like this: .285 BA; .385 on-base; .445 slugging%. Youkilis owners, enjoy it while it lasts.
SHORT STOP
1st: HANLEY RAMIREZ-- .985 OPS; 13 SB; .420 SECA
2nd:RAFAEL FURCAL—1.045 OPS; 5HRs!; 10.21 RC/27
Analysis: Ramirez is doing all he can to beat out the streaking Furcal for the title of best SS in fantasy leagues. Ramirez has the ability to steal 50 bases on any given year. Furcal’s high is 46 and has had trouble shaking off the injury bug (he already is down with a back problem). Furcal is motivated to play though as it is his contract year. Ramirez, just like his teammate Uggla, strikes out a lot already registering 28 early on in this season. Should be interesting to see if these two continue to go neck-in-neck for this title, but the smart money is on Ramirez as he is a young, elite talent, while Furcal is on the wrong side of 30.
The one common factor among the ten players mentioned is that all 10 players are in the top two in the OPS category in their respective position. Example, Furcal does actually lead all SS in OPS with a 1.045 mark. Ramirez is second in the position at .985. I hate to state the obvious, but anytime you want to fill out your roster, please, please, please always take into consideration the power of the OPS.
Next up is the OF. In my league, we split the OF position into three (LF, CF, RF). I’m aware that splitting the OF position like this is very rare in fantasy baseball, but that is the way I have listed the top OFs.
LEFT FIELD
1st: MATT HOLLIDAY--.945 OPS; 8.2 RC/27; .406 SECA
2nd:PAT BURRELL—1.042 OPS; 9HRs, 31RBIs; 9.70 RC/27
Analysis: Holliday is on a hitting holiday. We in the fantasy world have come to expect this type of production from him. He’s not even on pace to meet his 2008 projections and he’s still putting up numbers. That’s what they call talent. Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is a fantasy leaguer’s nuisance. His low batting average (career .259 hitter) and his high strikeout rate (he’ll fan anywhere between 130-160 times/year. He’s already on pace to K’out 140 times) makes him frustrating to own. He’s a slugger and you got him because of his run-producing ability. When he’s not hitting homeruns though, he’s probable to strikeout more times than not, usually prolonging his slumps. The reason he’s on a hot streak is because his OPS rate is above 1.000. Don’t, however, think that he’s undergoing a career year. The strikeouts should warn you that all his averages will dip back to normal. Expect his OPS to go back down to his 3-year average of roughly .900 (not bad, but that rate easily takes out Burrell from the elite).
CENTER FIELD
1st: NATE MCLOUTH—1.002 OPS; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.46 RC/27
2nd: JOSH HAMILTON--.903 OPS; 7HRs, 39RBIs
Analysis: McLouth has come out of nowhere to become a legit NL All-Star. He has never had a full-time role in his young MLB career with the Pirates. He is on pace to amass 600+ at bats, something he’s never done even in the minor leagues. I am not sure if he’ll be able to keep his spot as an elite OF, but his minor league numbers show that he has the ability to his .290 and his current on-base of .396 is not too far off from his average .376 on-base (based on his 4 best seasons in the minors). The homerun and slugging are bound to go down as he’s never been able to hit homeruns at his current rate before (currently, he’s hitting 1 dinger for every 16 at bats and is on pace to hit 40 this year) and McLouth has always struggled to hit for a .450 slugging% in the past. The only thing going for McLouth is that he is only 26 and might be entering his prime. But with no gradual improvement in the past, this could be a case of lightning being caught in a bottle for anybody who is involved with McLouth, including McLouth himself. Hamilton is another type of beast. He’s a former #1 overall pick (1999) who was evaluated as someone with loads of talent and huge upside. Unfortunately, a reported heroin addiction, forced him to leave the game. He’s back now and has been a great addition to any fantasy team. He showed glimpses of his untapped potential last season, before his year was cut short due to a season-ending injury. He already has 39 RBIs, but don’t expect him to continue his current 166 RBIs pace. Do consider him a better player than McLouth however. He’s always had the reputation of a hitter and should be able to record an OPS of .900+
RIGHT FIELD
1st CARLOS QUENTIN—1.001; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.42 RC/27
2nd XAVIER NADY-- .936 OPS; 5HRs, 34 RBIs; 7.94 RC/27
Analysis: Quentin was a highly touted prospect in the D’backs farm system, but lack of opportunity and a shoulder injury prevented him from reaching his full potential—until now. It seems that Quentin is finally healthy and proving all the scouts correct. Even when he was hitting around .220, his on-base was always hovering around .350. Quentin has always been an on-base machine and it looks like he’s matching it with his power. Continue to start him with confidence. Nady, throughout his pro career has always been able to slug for .450+. It’s the on-base that’s been a problem. Right now, he’s working on a career high .396 on-base rate, but odds are it won’t stay as high for the rest of the year. Nor will he continue to knock in runs at the current rate he’s going (on pace for 153RBIs). Don’t be surprised if he suddenly begins to struggle. Continue to start him if you must, but a strongly suggest you have a reliable backup in place.
DESIGNATED HITTER
1st: DERREK LEE-- .981 OPS; 10HRs, 26RBIs; 7.95 RC/27
2nd:CONOR JACKSON-- .978 OPS; 5HRs, 30RBIs; 8.57 RC/27
Analysis: Finally, we’re getting the season that we expect to get from Lee. He already has 10 homers. His career high is 46 and he’s on pace to perhaps match that number, but a conservative range of 30-35 homers is more realistic. He is setting a career high for on-base right now (.392) and his three-year OPS average (.975) shows that his 2008 .981OPS is not a fluke. Lee is finally fully healthy and is back to his old self again. CoJack is another D’back farmhand whose growth was delayed due to inconsistency and injury, but looks like he’s finally putting it together. He had a great 2nd half last season so a 2nd half meltdown in 2008 is not expect and best of all, his current numbers are comparable to what he was hitting in the minors. The knock on him is that he doesn’t hit enough homeruns, but the D’backs think that the power will come as he continues to develop. Continue to use him at 1B/DH/UTILITY with confidence.
Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitchers who have made the most noise in the 1st quarter of the season. Until then, remember that the baseball season is a marathon. Continue to keep tabs on your team, the waiver wire, and your rivals’ rosters to look for that player that will give you an advantage. PLAY BALL!!!
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Micro to Macro: The Fantasy Baseball Short Stop Famine
My name is Felipe Melecio. I’ve been playing fantasy baseball since 2001. I’ve played all sorts of fantasy baseball games from salary cap to traditional 5x5, have won league titles at Sandbox, Yahoo, and Sportsline and have finally settled to concentrate all of my attention on a keeper league, fantasy-point style, head-2-head league, playing against competitive, knowledgeable people from all over the country. I’m a big fan of the game and I’m always open to learn more and more about the nuances of the game of baseball. For the next several weeks, this weekly article will focus on my fantasy baseball team and in my quick synopsis of my team, I’m hoping that I can delve into concerning matters regarding my team that more than likely you, the reader, will definitely be able to relate. Along with bad, I will also be discussing the positives that are occurring in this MLB season as well. Look at it as a focus in the micro to make sense of the macro baseball world around us.
As mentioned, I am in a keeper league and because of that I had to keep some players from last year’s roster. First off, Brandon Webb, starting the season 7-0 with an ERA of 2.48 and the WHIP is great at 1.06. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as I wanted, but with a batting average against (BAA) of .197 and a Component ERA (ERC) of 2.01 (ERC is a pitcher's ERA based on the hits and walks he allowed, rather than actual runs), he is proving why he’s one of the elite starting pitchers in all of baseball. Next, Fausto Carmona, who has been very bi-polar in his starts this year. One week he will look amazing, while the next he will have you pulling out your hair. Proving once again that ERA is overrated (he has it at 2.60), the ERC (stands at 5.27) and the WHIP is a horrible 1.70. I’m not even going to talk about his ridiculous strikeout rate (not that there’s anything to talk about anyway). It has been an unacceptable early performance from a guy who was a Cy Young candidate last season. Carmona was a lot of people’s keeper or early to mid round selection and is too early to release him, especially based on his breakout performance from last season and he does have a win-loss record of 3-1 so his team will help him get some wins. If you have him, you should be like me and continue to ride it out until he (hopefully) finds his groove again. Continue to insert other pitchers in the meantime. And my final pitching keeper was Chad Billingsley, who was always the odd man out in the Dodger rotation as the unofficial 6th or 7th starter in the bullpen when he was first called up to the team and has turn into a bonafide starting pitcher. The ERC at 4.88 and the WHP at 1.59 should worry some owners, but you have to remember that his first start was interrupted by a rain delay, then he would twice come out of the bullpen in the first week of the season, throwing his numbers out of orbit. One should consider that in his last 4 starts, he’s pitched deeper and deeper into games. The final proof that he should be improving as the season moves along is his year-to-date (ytd) strikeout rate of 13.01 (leads the Majors in that category with pitchers who have at minimum of 20 innings pitched) and 14.5 in his last four starts. If you have him on your roster, continue to start him with confidence as I think this kid can dominate hitters soon. If you think you can trade for him, he has been getting dealt for players like Raul Ibanez, Gil Meche, Zach Duke, and Michael Bourn. And those trades were done in the last 24-48 hours! Jump on him while you can still get him cheap!
As far as hitters go, Chase Utley was recently named a HERO for the month of April on this website. No further explanation needed on this player. He is awesome! Victor Martinez gave me the scare of a lifetime when on opening day, in an attempt to stretch a single into a double, he pulls up lame and holding his hamstring. Luckily, not only did he not go into the DL because of it, but he was playing at 100% less than a week later and hasn’t missed much action since the first week. V-Mart has yet to hit a homerun this season, but at this point, it’s not a matter of how, but of when, as in “when is he going to start going on a power streak in order to reach the 25 homeruns he was projected to hit this season?” He is one of the best catchers in the game and if you have him, just ignore him and get back to me by mid-June. You shall not be disappointed when he starts putting up big numbers. Besides, who else are you going to insert at your backstop position? Popular pick ups from waivers in the last 7 days include Jeff Clement, Paul Bako (an obvious Dusty Baker favorite), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (seems to only be playing every other day as of this writing), and Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, and Jose Molina who are respectable alternatives, but nowhere near the caliber that Martinez is. Trust me, continue to show patience on this guy. If you do indeed don’t have the patience for V-Mart AND have extra roster spots to fill, then immediately pick up Ryan Doumit (who is posting better numbers than Martinez, in case you haven’t noticed). We all know Doumit’s life story: impressed in 2005, lost the catching spot to Ronny Paulino in 2006, showed he could hit in 2007 as a part time hitter, and coming into 2008, he was a man with no position for the lowly Pirates. Well, it looks like the Pirates are finally giving him a chance to get some at bats together (on pace to reach over 450 at bats for the first time in his career) and could really produce this season. Nevertheless, he is no V-Mart. Ryan Braun was in my minor league slot (we get two minor league slots) and he wound up winning NL rookie of the year. He was magnificent last season and was a no-brainer to be kept for this year. He went into a slump in mid-April and missed a few games due to a minor shoulder injury and to take a break from said slump. After that, he’s been a monster. Matter of fact, in his last 7 games, he’s had 2 homers and 9 RBIs. Don’t worry much about Braun and continue to have him on cruise control.
Which brings us to the 7th and last keeper and the subject matter for the rest of this article—Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo got off to a horrendous start this season. I’m talking about the type of start that validates such fallacies as the “sophomore jinx” but it happened to Tulo. By the end of the third week of the season, it looked like Tulowitzki was on the verge of breaking away from his early season slump, he had a mediocre 4th week, and then was forced to leave the 04/29/08 game against the Giants due to a quad injury. Before the injury, Tulowitzki was stuck in a three-game hitless streak. Tulowitzki will return by the All-Star break—by the earliest. Which brings us Tulowitzki owners to a dilemma: Who do I/we replace him with?
We first look at teammate Clint Barmes who first became a known commodity in 2005 when he was given 350 at-bats that season. He was a very popular waiver pick up that year, but aside from the decent .288 batting average, his OPS were very low, even for a shortstop and in 2006, when he had 478 at bats, his overall numbers were just putrid. Right now, his Slugging% is a good looking .480, but only a .307 On-base%. He’s a really popular pickup this week, but I say there’s other SS out there who are worth a roster spot on your team.
Erick Aybar is hitting .298 for the season and has picked up regular playing time since Howie Kendrick went down with an injury for the Angels. He doesn’t hit for much power, his RC/27 (which estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score) score is in the low 4s and doesn’t walk much. I have no idea how this guy is able to score so many points in our fantasy points league seeing how he has only 5 doubles all year long. Roto-leaguers might want to have him because he’s on pace to steal 25 bases. I’m just baffled that 99% of ESPN fantasy baseball league owners have Aybar on their roster. I’m sorry but I like my SS/MIs to put up bigger numbers than the ones that are provided by Aybar. I’ll pass, thank you much.
We now move to Ryan Theriot who might be the best option so far and is owned by 84% of http://www.sportsline.com/ fantasy baseball owners. He’ll steal more bases than Aybar and has an overall better season than him as well (.316 avg.; .800 OPS; 5.52 RC/27). Other popular SS that might still be available are Orlando Cabrera (who you might want to pick up with the hopes he picks up the hitting really soon. I wouldn’t count on it though), Cristian Guzman (who’s having a career year so far this season, but we’ve all been hurt by Guzman before. Never again!), Jhonny Peralta (aside from his 25 homerun potential, has really done nothing since his breakout 2005 season), J.J. Hardy (who is described as a streaky hitter. Right now, he’s going through the wrong kind of streak at this moment), Bobby Crosby (low batting average, low OPS, but the RBIs are coming in real handy at the moment), Yuniesky Betancourt (real ordinary player, but .290 average is his one saving grace). As you can see, Theriot would be the logical choice and a fairly good chance he might still be available in your league. Also, be sure to look out for Yunel Escobar from the Atlanta Braves who is having a very good season. You might just be lucky enough to pick him up (who is at 96% ownership at Sportsline). If you’re like me and you HAVE to choose a player between Theriot and Escobar, you can continue to ride the Guzman hot streak until it runs out of fuel....
... or you could be like me and go with personal favorite, Felipe Lopez. Lopez, who just knocked in his 300th career RBI over the weekend, is currently on a six game winning streak, was relegated to a part time player from April 10-17. Since April 18, Lopez has hit .323 and has registered an OPS of .804 (by the way, I believe that a reliable baseball player should be able to post a minimum of a .790 OPS percentage). He has struck out as much as he walked, has 11 RBIs (only Miguel Tejada has more RBIs than Lopez during that same time span among SS), plays in the supposed hitters’ park that is Nationals Park, and best of all, he’s finally getting regular playing time after losing the everyday job at SS and 2B during spring training. The last time he’s hit 20+ homers was in 2005 when he was jacking them out of Cincinnati. Perhaps the new ballpark in Washington will lead him to return to his 2005 form. He also has a recent history of reaching an on-base percentage of over .350 (unlike Barmes, Cabrera, etc). He is eligible at 2B, SS, OF (or LF for those who split the OF positions into three). You can either get a big name like Hardy or Crosby, but why not go with the hot hand who might prove to be the most consistent player as the season progresses?
As mentioned, I am in a keeper league and because of that I had to keep some players from last year’s roster. First off, Brandon Webb, starting the season 7-0 with an ERA of 2.48 and the WHIP is great at 1.06. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as I wanted, but with a batting average against (BAA) of .197 and a Component ERA (ERC) of 2.01 (ERC is a pitcher's ERA based on the hits and walks he allowed, rather than actual runs), he is proving why he’s one of the elite starting pitchers in all of baseball. Next, Fausto Carmona, who has been very bi-polar in his starts this year. One week he will look amazing, while the next he will have you pulling out your hair. Proving once again that ERA is overrated (he has it at 2.60), the ERC (stands at 5.27) and the WHIP is a horrible 1.70. I’m not even going to talk about his ridiculous strikeout rate (not that there’s anything to talk about anyway). It has been an unacceptable early performance from a guy who was a Cy Young candidate last season. Carmona was a lot of people’s keeper or early to mid round selection and is too early to release him, especially based on his breakout performance from last season and he does have a win-loss record of 3-1 so his team will help him get some wins. If you have him, you should be like me and continue to ride it out until he (hopefully) finds his groove again. Continue to insert other pitchers in the meantime. And my final pitching keeper was Chad Billingsley, who was always the odd man out in the Dodger rotation as the unofficial 6th or 7th starter in the bullpen when he was first called up to the team and has turn into a bonafide starting pitcher. The ERC at 4.88 and the WHP at 1.59 should worry some owners, but you have to remember that his first start was interrupted by a rain delay, then he would twice come out of the bullpen in the first week of the season, throwing his numbers out of orbit. One should consider that in his last 4 starts, he’s pitched deeper and deeper into games. The final proof that he should be improving as the season moves along is his year-to-date (ytd) strikeout rate of 13.01 (leads the Majors in that category with pitchers who have at minimum of 20 innings pitched) and 14.5 in his last four starts. If you have him on your roster, continue to start him with confidence as I think this kid can dominate hitters soon. If you think you can trade for him, he has been getting dealt for players like Raul Ibanez, Gil Meche, Zach Duke, and Michael Bourn. And those trades were done in the last 24-48 hours! Jump on him while you can still get him cheap!
As far as hitters go, Chase Utley was recently named a HERO for the month of April on this website. No further explanation needed on this player. He is awesome! Victor Martinez gave me the scare of a lifetime when on opening day, in an attempt to stretch a single into a double, he pulls up lame and holding his hamstring. Luckily, not only did he not go into the DL because of it, but he was playing at 100% less than a week later and hasn’t missed much action since the first week. V-Mart has yet to hit a homerun this season, but at this point, it’s not a matter of how, but of when, as in “when is he going to start going on a power streak in order to reach the 25 homeruns he was projected to hit this season?” He is one of the best catchers in the game and if you have him, just ignore him and get back to me by mid-June. You shall not be disappointed when he starts putting up big numbers. Besides, who else are you going to insert at your backstop position? Popular pick ups from waivers in the last 7 days include Jeff Clement, Paul Bako (an obvious Dusty Baker favorite), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (seems to only be playing every other day as of this writing), and Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, and Jose Molina who are respectable alternatives, but nowhere near the caliber that Martinez is. Trust me, continue to show patience on this guy. If you do indeed don’t have the patience for V-Mart AND have extra roster spots to fill, then immediately pick up Ryan Doumit (who is posting better numbers than Martinez, in case you haven’t noticed). We all know Doumit’s life story: impressed in 2005, lost the catching spot to Ronny Paulino in 2006, showed he could hit in 2007 as a part time hitter, and coming into 2008, he was a man with no position for the lowly Pirates. Well, it looks like the Pirates are finally giving him a chance to get some at bats together (on pace to reach over 450 at bats for the first time in his career) and could really produce this season. Nevertheless, he is no V-Mart. Ryan Braun was in my minor league slot (we get two minor league slots) and he wound up winning NL rookie of the year. He was magnificent last season and was a no-brainer to be kept for this year. He went into a slump in mid-April and missed a few games due to a minor shoulder injury and to take a break from said slump. After that, he’s been a monster. Matter of fact, in his last 7 games, he’s had 2 homers and 9 RBIs. Don’t worry much about Braun and continue to have him on cruise control.
Which brings us to the 7th and last keeper and the subject matter for the rest of this article—Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo got off to a horrendous start this season. I’m talking about the type of start that validates such fallacies as the “sophomore jinx” but it happened to Tulo. By the end of the third week of the season, it looked like Tulowitzki was on the verge of breaking away from his early season slump, he had a mediocre 4th week, and then was forced to leave the 04/29/08 game against the Giants due to a quad injury. Before the injury, Tulowitzki was stuck in a three-game hitless streak. Tulowitzki will return by the All-Star break—by the earliest. Which brings us Tulowitzki owners to a dilemma: Who do I/we replace him with?
We first look at teammate Clint Barmes who first became a known commodity in 2005 when he was given 350 at-bats that season. He was a very popular waiver pick up that year, but aside from the decent .288 batting average, his OPS were very low, even for a shortstop and in 2006, when he had 478 at bats, his overall numbers were just putrid. Right now, his Slugging% is a good looking .480, but only a .307 On-base%. He’s a really popular pickup this week, but I say there’s other SS out there who are worth a roster spot on your team.
Erick Aybar is hitting .298 for the season and has picked up regular playing time since Howie Kendrick went down with an injury for the Angels. He doesn’t hit for much power, his RC/27 (which estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score) score is in the low 4s and doesn’t walk much. I have no idea how this guy is able to score so many points in our fantasy points league seeing how he has only 5 doubles all year long. Roto-leaguers might want to have him because he’s on pace to steal 25 bases. I’m just baffled that 99% of ESPN fantasy baseball league owners have Aybar on their roster. I’m sorry but I like my SS/MIs to put up bigger numbers than the ones that are provided by Aybar. I’ll pass, thank you much.
We now move to Ryan Theriot who might be the best option so far and is owned by 84% of http://www.sportsline.com/ fantasy baseball owners. He’ll steal more bases than Aybar and has an overall better season than him as well (.316 avg.; .800 OPS; 5.52 RC/27). Other popular SS that might still be available are Orlando Cabrera (who you might want to pick up with the hopes he picks up the hitting really soon. I wouldn’t count on it though), Cristian Guzman (who’s having a career year so far this season, but we’ve all been hurt by Guzman before. Never again!), Jhonny Peralta (aside from his 25 homerun potential, has really done nothing since his breakout 2005 season), J.J. Hardy (who is described as a streaky hitter. Right now, he’s going through the wrong kind of streak at this moment), Bobby Crosby (low batting average, low OPS, but the RBIs are coming in real handy at the moment), Yuniesky Betancourt (real ordinary player, but .290 average is his one saving grace). As you can see, Theriot would be the logical choice and a fairly good chance he might still be available in your league. Also, be sure to look out for Yunel Escobar from the Atlanta Braves who is having a very good season. You might just be lucky enough to pick him up (who is at 96% ownership at Sportsline). If you’re like me and you HAVE to choose a player between Theriot and Escobar, you can continue to ride the Guzman hot streak until it runs out of fuel....
... or you could be like me and go with personal favorite, Felipe Lopez. Lopez, who just knocked in his 300th career RBI over the weekend, is currently on a six game winning streak, was relegated to a part time player from April 10-17. Since April 18, Lopez has hit .323 and has registered an OPS of .804 (by the way, I believe that a reliable baseball player should be able to post a minimum of a .790 OPS percentage). He has struck out as much as he walked, has 11 RBIs (only Miguel Tejada has more RBIs than Lopez during that same time span among SS), plays in the supposed hitters’ park that is Nationals Park, and best of all, he’s finally getting regular playing time after losing the everyday job at SS and 2B during spring training. The last time he’s hit 20+ homers was in 2005 when he was jacking them out of Cincinnati. Perhaps the new ballpark in Washington will lead him to return to his 2005 form. He also has a recent history of reaching an on-base percentage of over .350 (unlike Barmes, Cabrera, etc). He is eligible at 2B, SS, OF (or LF for those who split the OF positions into three). You can either get a big name like Hardy or Crosby, but why not go with the hot hand who might prove to be the most consistent player as the season progresses?
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Fantasy Baseball - April's Heroes & Goats
April 2008 is now history. After one month there are a large number of players whose April's performance has either added to or taken away from your Fantasy Baseball Team's Performance. Whether you're playing Rotisserie, Head To Head, Salary Cap or any other type of fantasy baseball, the performances of these players have caused hours of roster reevaluation. The following highlights several of the Hero Hitters & Pitchers, followed by the Goats of the pitching class.
***Some of the Leading Hitting Performances
1: CHASE UTLEY - 2nd base - Philadelphia: 11 HR's, 23 RBI's, .360 Bat.Avg. & .430 On Base %: What a stud! Not really a surprise based on his prior season's performances. But at his current pace we may see another National League MVP coming out of Philadelphia (Howard 2006) & (Rollins 2007).
2: NATE MCLOUTH - Outfield - Pittsburgh: 7 HR's, 25 RBI, .342 Bat. Avg., & .425 On Base %: When was the last time we saw numbers like this coming out of Pittsburgh? He could be the steal of the season for anyone who was fortunate to draft him. His 22 steals in 2007 indicate that he has some speed to go along with his impressive April Stats. Could be the X Factor in many successful fantasy teams this year.
3: JOSH HAMILTON - Outfield - Texas: 6 HR's, 32 RBI's, .330 Bat. Avg., & .379 On Base%: Came to Texas in the deal that sent Edinson Volquez to Cincinnati, a deal that's helped both clubs. Hamilton, whose start to his baseball career was delayed to his reported drug addiction that resulted in eight different rehab programs, began to show his potential last season with 19 HR's, 47 RBI's & a .292 Avg. in a injury shortened 90 game season . He's a Keeper!
4: CARLOS QUENTIN - Outfield - Chicago White Soxs: 7 HR's, 21 RBI's, .298 Bat. Avg., & .433 On Base%: Carlos came to Chicago via a trade with Arizona during the off season. He's making GSM, Ken Williams look brilliant again with his fast start. It's extremely doubtful that any fantasy managers has Quentin on their draft radar this spring, but it's doubtful that you'll find him available in your league today.
5: NICK MARKAKIS - Outfielder - Baltimore: 4 HR's, 11 RBI's, 22 Walks, 6 Stolen Bases, .287 Bat. Avg. & .427 On Base%: Came into his own last season with 23 HR's, 112 RBI's & .300 Bat. Avg. Nick is a Five Tool Player with his batting ability, his speed and defensive skills. Add to this, the ball park he plays in (Hitter Friendly Camden Yards) and you have a foundation to build a team upon.
Other Leading April Hitting Performers: Derrick Lee (Cubs); Lance Berkman (Astros); Hanley Ramirez (Cubs); Rafael Furcal (Dodgers); Chipper Jones (Braves); Conor Jackson (Padres); Aramis Ramirez (Cubs) to name a few.......
***Leading April Pitching Performers.
1: CLIFF LEE - Cleveland: 5 Wins/0 Loses, 1 Complete game, 32 K's, 2 W's, 19 Hits in 37+ Innings & 0.96 ERA: Easily the Pitcher of Month for the major leagues. Not bad for a pitcher that was designated as the 5Th Starter for the Indians the day before the season started. It's extremely doubtful that he'll keep up this pace in the future months (after all he gave up a run last night!), but he's going to be a great pickup for the remainder of the season.
2: BRANDON WEBB - Arizona: 6 Wins/0 Loses, 34 K's, 29 Hits in 41 Innings & 1.98 ERA: Webb, the Diamondbacks Annual Cy Young contender, is the bedrock of the young Arizona pitching staff that has gotten off quickly this season. A Pitching keeper!
3: ERVIN SANTANA - LA Angels: 5 Wins/ 0 Loses, 29 K's, 30 Hits in 40 Innings & 2.48 ERA: Another preseason sleeper, who has put it together for the Angels. Ervin was 7 & 14 with a 5.76 ERA in 2007, but was also viewed by the club as a potential winning pitcher. Well, he's off to a great start and if he's on your roster, see how far you can ride him.
4: JOE SAUNDERS - LA Angels: 5 Wins/ 0 Loses, 20 K's, 31 Hits in 43+ Innings & 2.08 ERA: A mid-Season call up last season, Saunders achieved a solid 8 & 5 record with a 4.44 ERA. With injuries to both John Lackey and Kevin Escobar this season, Saunders got the opportunity to hold down a Starting Position in April. It might be a while before he gives his up.
5: FELIX HERNANDEZ - Seattle: 2 wins/1Loss, 1 Complete game, 41 K's, 39 Hits in 44+ Innings & 2.22 ERA: People forget that Felix is only 22 years old. Probably brought up several seasons too early by the Seattle Franchise, Felix is getting comfortable as a starter.
Other Leading April Pitching Performers: Brandon Lyons (Diamondbacks); Jake Peavy (Padres); Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); Tim Lincecum (Giants); Johan Santana (Mets); Cole Hamels (Phillies); Edinson Volquez (Reds); Dan Haren (Diamondbacks) to name a few.....
***April Hitting Disappointments***
1: RYAN HOWARD - Phillies: 5 HR's, 12 RBI's, .172 Bat.Avg., 38 K's, .297 OB%: Second Year in a row that Ryan has started off slowly. Team owners must have a lot of patience with Howard because as he indicated last year that once he finds his hitting eye he'll pay dividends daily, because 47 HR's and 137 RBI's can't be ignored. But in the meantime you'll have to put up with his strike outs which numbered 199 last year.
2: TRAVIS HAFNER - Cleveland: 3 HR's, 16 RBI's, .210 Bat.Avg., 27 K's, .302 OB% & .340 Slug%; This future Hall of Famer has reached 41 years old. Put this together with a slow start and one begins to wonder if it's a slump that he'll come out of.
3: JASON GIAMBI - Yankees: 5 HR's, 13 RBI's, .169 Bat. Avg., 11 K's, .345 OB% and a .411 Slug%; It's been Home Run or bust so far this season for Jason whose playing time at first Base has been increased this season. Still has not regained the opposite field punch that used to beat the shifts that the American League place against him on the field. Will remain in the batting order at least until Posada and Rodriguez come off the IR's.
4: TROY TULOWITZKI - Colorado: 1 HR, 11 RBI's, .152 Bat. Avg., 17 K's, .226 OB% and a .238 Slug%: A real surprise after one month. Recently when on IR after a very sub par performance particularly in lea of last year's performance. Both Colorado and the Fantasy Owners holding him on their roster hope he gets healthy quick and finds the stroke.
5: FRANK THOMAS - Oakland: 3 HR's, 14 RBI's, .180 Bat. Avg., 17 K's, .327 OB% and a .337 Slug%: Near the end? Thomas refused to sit on the pines in Toronto and now it's time for him to either regain his status as a premier hitter or face retirement. The question will be whether Oakland and his fantasy Owners have to patience to wait?
***April Pitching Disappointments***
1: BARRY ZITO - San Francisco: 0 wins/6 Loses, 7.43 ERA & 1.95 Whip: Has there been a bigger bust? Pitching is a pitcher's ballpark, Zito has just about lost it. Fantasy Owners have long dropped him and the question is how long with the Giants hold him despite the worst big contract in major league history.
2: C.C. SABATHIA - Cleveland: 1 Win/4 Loses, 7.88 ERA & 1.78 Whip: He's been a shock to Fantasy Owners, many who may have picked him up in the first round. Coming off a 19 & 7 Cy Young Award season, this start was a complete surprise. However, his last two appearances in the month seem to indicate that he's found the strike zone again.
3: JUSTIN VERLANDER - Detroit: 1 Win/4 loses, 6.50 ERA., 1.47 Whip: Like his team he has gotten off to a very slow start. But also like his team he possesses too much talent to remain at this level of performance for too long.
4: TED LILLY: 1 Win/4 Loses, 6.46 ERA, 1.50 Whip: Off to a slow start with Lou Pinellas' Cubs. Now a predominately finesse type pitcher, warmer weather should help him turn his season around.
5: PHIL HUGHES & IAN KENNEDY - Yankees: Combined these two rookies have been a train wreck for the Yankee pitching staff. After showing some promise in 2007, both were slated to start for the Bombers for the 08 season. This pressure, along with the pressure that the team refused to part with either of them in a trade with Minnesota for Johan Santana, has resulted in a combined 0 wins & 6 loses with a approx. 8.75 ERA. Hughes is currently on the IR for a strained Oblique Muscle (Sore Side). It remains to be seen how long either will remain on the staff.
Lastly, Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for their first winning April in team history!
GHD
***Some of the Leading Hitting Performances
1: CHASE UTLEY - 2nd base - Philadelphia: 11 HR's, 23 RBI's, .360 Bat.Avg. & .430 On Base %: What a stud! Not really a surprise based on his prior season's performances. But at his current pace we may see another National League MVP coming out of Philadelphia (Howard 2006) & (Rollins 2007).
2: NATE MCLOUTH - Outfield - Pittsburgh: 7 HR's, 25 RBI, .342 Bat. Avg., & .425 On Base %: When was the last time we saw numbers like this coming out of Pittsburgh? He could be the steal of the season for anyone who was fortunate to draft him. His 22 steals in 2007 indicate that he has some speed to go along with his impressive April Stats. Could be the X Factor in many successful fantasy teams this year.
3: JOSH HAMILTON - Outfield - Texas: 6 HR's, 32 RBI's, .330 Bat. Avg., & .379 On Base%: Came to Texas in the deal that sent Edinson Volquez to Cincinnati, a deal that's helped both clubs. Hamilton, whose start to his baseball career was delayed to his reported drug addiction that resulted in eight different rehab programs, began to show his potential last season with 19 HR's, 47 RBI's & a .292 Avg. in a injury shortened 90 game season . He's a Keeper!
4: CARLOS QUENTIN - Outfield - Chicago White Soxs: 7 HR's, 21 RBI's, .298 Bat. Avg., & .433 On Base%: Carlos came to Chicago via a trade with Arizona during the off season. He's making GSM, Ken Williams look brilliant again with his fast start. It's extremely doubtful that any fantasy managers has Quentin on their draft radar this spring, but it's doubtful that you'll find him available in your league today.
5: NICK MARKAKIS - Outfielder - Baltimore: 4 HR's, 11 RBI's, 22 Walks, 6 Stolen Bases, .287 Bat. Avg. & .427 On Base%: Came into his own last season with 23 HR's, 112 RBI's & .300 Bat. Avg. Nick is a Five Tool Player with his batting ability, his speed and defensive skills. Add to this, the ball park he plays in (Hitter Friendly Camden Yards) and you have a foundation to build a team upon.
Other Leading April Hitting Performers: Derrick Lee (Cubs); Lance Berkman (Astros); Hanley Ramirez (Cubs); Rafael Furcal (Dodgers); Chipper Jones (Braves); Conor Jackson (Padres); Aramis Ramirez (Cubs) to name a few.......
***Leading April Pitching Performers.
1: CLIFF LEE - Cleveland: 5 Wins/0 Loses, 1 Complete game, 32 K's, 2 W's, 19 Hits in 37+ Innings & 0.96 ERA: Easily the Pitcher of Month for the major leagues. Not bad for a pitcher that was designated as the 5Th Starter for the Indians the day before the season started. It's extremely doubtful that he'll keep up this pace in the future months (after all he gave up a run last night!), but he's going to be a great pickup for the remainder of the season.
2: BRANDON WEBB - Arizona: 6 Wins/0 Loses, 34 K's, 29 Hits in 41 Innings & 1.98 ERA: Webb, the Diamondbacks Annual Cy Young contender, is the bedrock of the young Arizona pitching staff that has gotten off quickly this season. A Pitching keeper!
3: ERVIN SANTANA - LA Angels: 5 Wins/ 0 Loses, 29 K's, 30 Hits in 40 Innings & 2.48 ERA: Another preseason sleeper, who has put it together for the Angels. Ervin was 7 & 14 with a 5.76 ERA in 2007, but was also viewed by the club as a potential winning pitcher. Well, he's off to a great start and if he's on your roster, see how far you can ride him.
4: JOE SAUNDERS - LA Angels: 5 Wins/ 0 Loses, 20 K's, 31 Hits in 43+ Innings & 2.08 ERA: A mid-Season call up last season, Saunders achieved a solid 8 & 5 record with a 4.44 ERA. With injuries to both John Lackey and Kevin Escobar this season, Saunders got the opportunity to hold down a Starting Position in April. It might be a while before he gives his up.
5: FELIX HERNANDEZ - Seattle: 2 wins/1Loss, 1 Complete game, 41 K's, 39 Hits in 44+ Innings & 2.22 ERA: People forget that Felix is only 22 years old. Probably brought up several seasons too early by the Seattle Franchise, Felix is getting comfortable as a starter.
Other Leading April Pitching Performers: Brandon Lyons (Diamondbacks); Jake Peavy (Padres); Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); Tim Lincecum (Giants); Johan Santana (Mets); Cole Hamels (Phillies); Edinson Volquez (Reds); Dan Haren (Diamondbacks) to name a few.....
***April Hitting Disappointments***
1: RYAN HOWARD - Phillies: 5 HR's, 12 RBI's, .172 Bat.Avg., 38 K's, .297 OB%: Second Year in a row that Ryan has started off slowly. Team owners must have a lot of patience with Howard because as he indicated last year that once he finds his hitting eye he'll pay dividends daily, because 47 HR's and 137 RBI's can't be ignored. But in the meantime you'll have to put up with his strike outs which numbered 199 last year.
2: TRAVIS HAFNER - Cleveland: 3 HR's, 16 RBI's, .210 Bat.Avg., 27 K's, .302 OB% & .340 Slug%; This future Hall of Famer has reached 41 years old. Put this together with a slow start and one begins to wonder if it's a slump that he'll come out of.
3: JASON GIAMBI - Yankees: 5 HR's, 13 RBI's, .169 Bat. Avg., 11 K's, .345 OB% and a .411 Slug%; It's been Home Run or bust so far this season for Jason whose playing time at first Base has been increased this season. Still has not regained the opposite field punch that used to beat the shifts that the American League place against him on the field. Will remain in the batting order at least until Posada and Rodriguez come off the IR's.
4: TROY TULOWITZKI - Colorado: 1 HR, 11 RBI's, .152 Bat. Avg., 17 K's, .226 OB% and a .238 Slug%: A real surprise after one month. Recently when on IR after a very sub par performance particularly in lea of last year's performance. Both Colorado and the Fantasy Owners holding him on their roster hope he gets healthy quick and finds the stroke.
5: FRANK THOMAS - Oakland: 3 HR's, 14 RBI's, .180 Bat. Avg., 17 K's, .327 OB% and a .337 Slug%: Near the end? Thomas refused to sit on the pines in Toronto and now it's time for him to either regain his status as a premier hitter or face retirement. The question will be whether Oakland and his fantasy Owners have to patience to wait?
***April Pitching Disappointments***
1: BARRY ZITO - San Francisco: 0 wins/6 Loses, 7.43 ERA & 1.95 Whip: Has there been a bigger bust? Pitching is a pitcher's ballpark, Zito has just about lost it. Fantasy Owners have long dropped him and the question is how long with the Giants hold him despite the worst big contract in major league history.
2: C.C. SABATHIA - Cleveland: 1 Win/4 Loses, 7.88 ERA & 1.78 Whip: He's been a shock to Fantasy Owners, many who may have picked him up in the first round. Coming off a 19 & 7 Cy Young Award season, this start was a complete surprise. However, his last two appearances in the month seem to indicate that he's found the strike zone again.
3: JUSTIN VERLANDER - Detroit: 1 Win/4 loses, 6.50 ERA., 1.47 Whip: Like his team he has gotten off to a very slow start. But also like his team he possesses too much talent to remain at this level of performance for too long.
4: TED LILLY: 1 Win/4 Loses, 6.46 ERA, 1.50 Whip: Off to a slow start with Lou Pinellas' Cubs. Now a predominately finesse type pitcher, warmer weather should help him turn his season around.
5: PHIL HUGHES & IAN KENNEDY - Yankees: Combined these two rookies have been a train wreck for the Yankee pitching staff. After showing some promise in 2007, both were slated to start for the Bombers for the 08 season. This pressure, along with the pressure that the team refused to part with either of them in a trade with Minnesota for Johan Santana, has resulted in a combined 0 wins & 6 loses with a approx. 8.75 ERA. Hughes is currently on the IR for a strained Oblique Muscle (Sore Side). It remains to be seen how long either will remain on the staff.
Lastly, Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for their first winning April in team history!
GHD
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