Fantasy Baseball: First Quarter Report Card Part I

By Felipe Melecio

There are approximately 24 weeks in a fantasy baseball season. Approximate because not all leagues use up all 26 weeks of the season to come to a conclusion as to who they’re league champion is by the time October comes. Using simple arithmetic (4 weeks in a month; multiply by 6 months (6X4=24 weeks!), we can clearly see that a quarter of the season (six weeks already!) are up. I thought I’d take the liberty to give you a 1st quarter report of who the best ballplayers are as of May 12, 2008. The top two ballplayers at each hitting position were determined based on the point values that are used in this league, which if you have read last week’s article, you would know that it is a head-2-head, keeper league that I participate in. So let’s look at the players who passed the 1st quarter of the season with flying colors.

(For a statistics glossary, click here).

CATCHERS

First Team: BRIAN MCCAN-- .928 OPS; 7.24 RC/27; .366 SECA
Second Team: GEOVANY SOTO-- 1.003 OPS; 9.24 RC/27; .455 SECA
Analysis: Soto has the better numbers, but what gives the slight edge to McCann is that Soto has already struck out 32 TIMES! Mind you, Soto is still a rookie catcher and is still getting used to MLB pitching. Other than that, Soto has been everything a Cub fan (including yours truly) could ever want at that position. Soto batting avg will probably dip down to .275 and expect an on-base% of .350. Other than that, he’s shaping up to be a top 5 catcher and possibly a valuable commodity in keeper leagues. McCann, unlike Soto, is a 24 year-old veteran catcher and you should already know what type of player he is. He is also a top 5 catcher (along with Joe Mauer, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez), and should post up relatively similar numbers as Soto, with McCann’s batting avg hovering around .285-.290. All in all, great start by both these players.

FIRST BASE
1st: LANCE BERKMAN—1.235 OPS; 12HRs, 36RBIs; 13.09 RC/27
2nd: ALBERT PUJOLS—1.003 OPS; 2.92 BB/K; 11.26 RC/27
Analysis: Berkman leads all qualified hitters in OPS right now and is having another MVP-type year, ‘nuff said. Pujols leads all qualified hitters with a walk/strikeout ratio of almost 3! No other MLB hitter comes close to that number. Looks like that pesky elbow isn’t affecting Fat Albert’s ability to get on base, huh? Once again, ‘nuff said!

SECOND BASE
1st: CHASE UTLEY—1.089 OPS; 10.09 RC/27; 13HRs, 28RBIs
2nd: DAN UGGLA-- .977 OPS; .463 SECA; 11 HRs, 27RBIs
Analysis: The home run and RBI totals are pretty similar, but don’t let that fact deceive you from figuring out who the best 2B in the league is. It’s all about Utley, it is his world and he reigns supreme. Unlike Uggla, Utley finds ways to get on base and is not necessarily looking to hack the ball. He has more singles than Uggla (which leads to a higher batting avg. Take note you roto leaguers.), has scored 5 more runs than Uggla, and most importantly, is not wasting swings. Uggla has struck out an astonishing 39 TIMES already. He is on pace to KO about 170 times this year. Yikes! Despite the good stats for Uggla and he could arguably be the 2nd best 2B for the rest of the year, he is susceptible to long slumps just based on his alarming strikeout rate alone.

THIRD BASE
1st: CHIPPER JONES—1.161 OPS; 12.35 RC/27; .410 BA
2nd: KEVIN YOUKILIS--.996 OPS; .418 SECA; 8.73 RC/27
Analysis: I am a huge fan of Chipper Jones. Too bad for a good portion of his time he was on my keeper team; he was shelved on the DL. It’s a shame because Jones has always had the ability to terrorize opposing pitchers. Also, pay attention to the batting avg. He’s the only hitter batting over .400. However, as much as my heart believes he has the ability to hit .400 in a season, my head reminds me that he will probably hit around .300-.320, which isn’t shabby, but that also means that the OPS will dip anywhere between .970-.990, again those are great numbers but don’t expect Jones to carry your ball club all year long. He has to cool down sometimes, right? But then again, who would want him to? And everybody knows how I feel about Youkilis (and other fantasy leaguers would agree so this isn’t anything new so you BoSox fans, back off!), he’s annually the first-half MVP of any league, but by the time the second-half starts, his numbers begin to dip back to normal, which usually look like this: .285 BA; .385 on-base; .445 slugging%. Youkilis owners, enjoy it while it lasts.

SHORT STOP
1st: HANLEY RAMIREZ-- .985 OPS; 13 SB; .420 SECA
2nd:RAFAEL FURCAL—1.045 OPS; 5HRs!; 10.21 RC/27
Analysis: Ramirez is doing all he can to beat out the streaking Furcal for the title of best SS in fantasy leagues. Ramirez has the ability to steal 50 bases on any given year. Furcal’s high is 46 and has had trouble shaking off the injury bug (he already is down with a back problem). Furcal is motivated to play though as it is his contract year. Ramirez, just like his teammate Uggla, strikes out a lot already registering 28 early on in this season. Should be interesting to see if these two continue to go neck-in-neck for this title, but the smart money is on Ramirez as he is a young, elite talent, while Furcal is on the wrong side of 30.

The one common factor among the ten players mentioned is that all 10 players are in the top two in the OPS category in their respective position. Example, Furcal does actually lead all SS in OPS with a 1.045 mark. Ramirez is second in the position at .985. I hate to state the obvious, but anytime you want to fill out your roster, please, please, please always take into consideration the power of the OPS.

Next up is the OF. In my league, we split the OF position into three (LF, CF, RF). I’m aware that splitting the OF position like this is very rare in fantasy baseball, but that is the way I have listed the top OFs.

LEFT FIELD
1st: MATT HOLLIDAY--.945 OPS; 8.2 RC/27; .406 SECA
2nd:PAT BURRELL—1.042 OPS; 9HRs, 31RBIs; 9.70 RC/27
Analysis: Holliday is on a hitting holiday. We in the fantasy world have come to expect this type of production from him. He’s not even on pace to meet his 2008 projections and he’s still putting up numbers. That’s what they call talent. Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is a fantasy leaguer’s nuisance. His low batting average (career .259 hitter) and his high strikeout rate (he’ll fan anywhere between 130-160 times/year. He’s already on pace to K’out 140 times) makes him frustrating to own. He’s a slugger and you got him because of his run-producing ability. When he’s not hitting homeruns though, he’s probable to strikeout more times than not, usually prolonging his slumps. The reason he’s on a hot streak is because his OPS rate is above 1.000. Don’t, however, think that he’s undergoing a career year. The strikeouts should warn you that all his averages will dip back to normal. Expect his OPS to go back down to his 3-year average of roughly .900 (not bad, but that rate easily takes out Burrell from the elite).

CENTER FIELD
1st: NATE MCLOUTH—1.002 OPS; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.46 RC/27
2nd: JOSH HAMILTON--.903 OPS; 7HRs, 39RBIs
Analysis: McLouth has come out of nowhere to become a legit NL All-Star. He has never had a full-time role in his young MLB career with the Pirates. He is on pace to amass 600+ at bats, something he’s never done even in the minor leagues. I am not sure if he’ll be able to keep his spot as an elite OF, but his minor league numbers show that he has the ability to his .290 and his current on-base of .396 is not too far off from his average .376 on-base (based on his 4 best seasons in the minors). The homerun and slugging are bound to go down as he’s never been able to hit homeruns at his current rate before (currently, he’s hitting 1 dinger for every 16 at bats and is on pace to hit 40 this year) and McLouth has always struggled to hit for a .450 slugging% in the past. The only thing going for McLouth is that he is only 26 and might be entering his prime. But with no gradual improvement in the past, this could be a case of lightning being caught in a bottle for anybody who is involved with McLouth, including McLouth himself. Hamilton is another type of beast. He’s a former #1 overall pick (1999) who was evaluated as someone with loads of talent and huge upside. Unfortunately, a reported heroin addiction, forced him to leave the game. He’s back now and has been a great addition to any fantasy team. He showed glimpses of his untapped potential last season, before his year was cut short due to a season-ending injury. He already has 39 RBIs, but don’t expect him to continue his current 166 RBIs pace. Do consider him a better player than McLouth however. He’s always had the reputation of a hitter and should be able to record an OPS of .900+

RIGHT FIELD
1st CARLOS QUENTIN—1.001; 9HRs, 29 RBIs; 8.42 RC/27
2nd XAVIER NADY-- .936 OPS; 5HRs, 34 RBIs; 7.94 RC/27
Analysis: Quentin was a highly touted prospect in the D’backs farm system, but lack of opportunity and a shoulder injury prevented him from reaching his full potential—until now. It seems that Quentin is finally healthy and proving all the scouts correct. Even when he was hitting around .220, his on-base was always hovering around .350. Quentin has always been an on-base machine and it looks like he’s matching it with his power. Continue to start him with confidence. Nady, throughout his pro career has always been able to slug for .450+. It’s the on-base that’s been a problem. Right now, he’s working on a career high .396 on-base rate, but odds are it won’t stay as high for the rest of the year. Nor will he continue to knock in runs at the current rate he’s going (on pace for 153RBIs). Don’t be surprised if he suddenly begins to struggle. Continue to start him if you must, but a strongly suggest you have a reliable backup in place.

DESIGNATED HITTER
1st: DERREK LEE-- .981 OPS; 10HRs, 26RBIs; 7.95 RC/27
2nd:CONOR JACKSON-- .978 OPS; 5HRs, 30RBIs; 8.57 RC/27
Analysis: Finally, we’re getting the season that we expect to get from Lee. He already has 10 homers. His career high is 46 and he’s on pace to perhaps match that number, but a conservative range of 30-35 homers is more realistic. He is setting a career high for on-base right now (.392) and his three-year OPS average (.975) shows that his 2008 .981OPS is not a fluke. Lee is finally fully healthy and is back to his old self again. CoJack is another D’back farmhand whose growth was delayed due to inconsistency and injury, but looks like he’s finally putting it together. He had a great 2nd half last season so a 2nd half meltdown in 2008 is not expect and best of all, his current numbers are comparable to what he was hitting in the minors. The knock on him is that he doesn’t hit enough homeruns, but the D’backs think that the power will come as he continues to develop. Continue to use him at 1B/DH/UTILITY with confidence.

Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitchers who have made the most noise in the 1st quarter of the season. Until then, remember that the baseball season is a marathon. Continue to keep tabs on your team, the waiver wire, and your rivals’ rosters to look for that player that will give you an advantage. PLAY BALL!!!