So I haven’t talked about my fantasy baseball team in awhile. Last time I discussed the topic, I was struggling to find a SS when Troy Tulowitzki went down with quad injury? Well the last two weeks, I’ve been working on the 1st Quarter Report Cards and I’m happy to announce that Chase Utley and Carlos Quentin made the first team, while Josh Hamilton made the second team (AND he’s on the cover of SI this week. Go read his remarkable story!). On the pitching side, Brandon Webb and George Sherrill made the cut.
Before I get to my club, I will like to talk about a Sports Illustrated magazine article I read last week and it reads like the last two articles that I wrote for this website. The article mentions that the MLB season is in this state of “Bizarroism” where up-is-down-and-down-is-up—or at least that’s my understanding of how Bizzaro World works in the Superman comics. I hate Superman though so.... but the point of the article was to sum this wacky season of MLB, which includes more parity, an emphasis on giving younger players a chance, and a style of baseball not seen since the 1980s. It’s an entertaining and must read for any baseball fan, both fantasy and non-fantasy leaguers alike.
In that same article, entitled The Bizarro Supermen (the article mainly talks about the Tampa Rays), they have the All-Bizarro Team written by Nate Silver from the highly respected baseball juggernaut that is BASEBALL PROSPECTUS. They categorize players who are having surprising starts to this season as either “Real” or “Fluke.” A quick rundown of the players are as follows:
LF, Carlos Quentin—We both AGREE that his season is for REAL, but for different reasons. Mr. Silver’s explanation of Quentin’s great start was because he finally has a full time spot in the big leagues. My reasoning behind his success was because of pedigree (he’s always been a highly touted prospect), a well-noted high on-base%, and because of a shoulder injury that he didn’t recuperate from—until now. Although playing time has something to do with it, Mr. Silver made it seem that that was the only reason why Quentin is doing great so far this season.
CF, Nate McLouth—WE BOTH AGREE THAT HE’S A FLUKE.
RF, Ryan Ludwick—Though I haven’t given Ludwick an evaluation on this website, I also agree with Mr. Silver’s final assessment that he too is a FLUKE.
3B, Blake DeWitt—DeWitt was available in my league and was putting numbers to replace Justin Upton from my DH slot. But just like Silver, I looked at his minor league numbers and came to the same conclusion that his hot start can be considered a FLUKE.
SS, Ryan Theriot—Mr. Silver slots “The Riot” on the FLUKE list. I will reluctantly agree with Silver, but on a fantasy team, Theriot will find ways to make it on a fantasy roster. Remember, I spoke highly of Theriot a couple of weeks ago and would’ve picked him up if he were available (instead of Felipe Lopez). His true position on a baseball team is that of a utility infielder, but hitting #2 on a potent Cubs’ offense and his approach at the plate won’t hurt you. For you Roto-leaguers, I think he can hit over .285-.290, score 80+ runs, and will steal 25+ stolen bases.
2B, Dan Uggla—I mentioned in my Hitters’ First Quarter Report that Uggla has the ability to be the second best 2B in fantasy baseball, but just like Silver, his strikeout rate is alarming. Silver sums it best by saying that Uggla “has too many holes in his swings.” Nevertheless, based on his power numbers, we both feel Uggla is the REAL deal.
1B, Connor Jackson—We both agree that he’s for REAL.
C, Mike Napoli—Silver believes that Napoli’s power numbers are for REAL, but I think the low batting average (and based on his history, it will be difficult for him to get it higher than .250), his KO rate (strikes out roughly every 3 at-bats), and the fact that backup Angels’ catcher, Jeff Mathis already has 77 at-bats (to Napoli’s 103) and that leads me to conclude that he may not necessarily be a fluke, but he is not the best option at catcher for your fantasy team.
RP, Brian Wilson—Silver has him as a FLUKE because Wilson was saving 71% of the Giants’ victories. I believe, however, that the reason that Wilson is a major FLUKE is because his WHIP is at 1.64. No other RP with 10+ saves has a WHIP that high, except for Jason Isringhausen (1.78) and Eric Gagne (2.02) and they both eventually lost their jobs as closers (almost at the same time, by the way. Both are now on the DL). The 10+ K/9 rate is great, but only Frankie Rodriguez has a higher walk rate than Wilson and the H/9 rate is embarrassing with only the aforementioned Izzie and Gagne having rates higher than Wilson. At this rate, Wilson might end up losing the closer’s role soon (except that the Giants don’t have anybody else that can take the spot away from Wilson).
SP, Edinson Volquez—Silver thinks he’s for REAL. It seems that everybody in this world thinks Volquez is having the greatest breakout party since the i-Phone first became readily available. I’m not questioning the kid’s talent. He certainly has the goods and the right numbers to prove it. However, as I mentioned last week, until the walks go down, I’d be more cautious on Volquez’s hot start. Already, the BB/9 rate has slightly increased, but his H/9 has gone up slightly as well. I think he’s off to a FLUKY start and we’ve been burned by former Texas Rangers’ pitching prospects before (Volquez being an ex-Rangers’ prospect). Look for him to finish with a 1.30+ WHIP. The strikeouts will definitely be there, but the walks are insane for a pitcher who’s supposed to be part of the elite in terms of fantasy pitchers.
Ok, now on to my team. Felipe Lopez was not the SS I was hoping for. So far in the month of May, Lopez hit .226 with a pathetic .599 OPS. Meanwhile, teammate Cristian Guzman, who was available for me in early May, has been the second best hitting SS in our league for the month of May. Doh! Clint Barmes, a guy who I refused to pickup, ended up hitting .391 with a 1.077 OPS. Double Doh!!! All the warning signs were there, but I was blinded by Lopez’s hot streak in April. In my defense, the list of SS available was pretty thin after that first week in May. You guys saw the list in early May, it was very demoralizing. However, since Lopez is deciding to give every Felipe in this world a bad name, I had no choice but to succumb to the fact that I will be playing musical chairs at SS, either until Tulowitzki proves he’s back to his 2007 form or for the rest of the season (which defeats the purpose of keeping Tulowitzki for the 2008 campaign, geez!). There’s plenty of underachieving SS available in my free agent pool and for the next scoring period, Orlando Cabrera gets the first crack to see if he can be a formidable replacement on my roster at short (hey, a guy who is concern about his stats as much as I am is always a good sign! Think Rickey Davis when he was trying to achieve his first triple-double), which is proving to be a curse-filled position for me.
So we turn from my season-long SS saga to the fall of Nick Swisher who was my first pick in this year’s draft (a second rounder as I traded away my 2008 first round pick. Long story). Swisher was a great pick at that time because he qualified at multiple positions. It was a luxury to have a guy who had you covered in 2 OF positions and at 1B as I can concentrate on literally picking the best player available, regardless of position in subsequent rounds. Unfortunately, Swisher was nothing more than dead weight on my club. Final numbers for Swish went like this: .206 BA, .648 OPS, on pace to barely hit over 10+ homers for this season (when he was projected to hit 33), and was having career lows in Iso Power, and in the SECA categories. Worst of all, his Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) (look all the way to the bottom of this article for explanation of this stat) was at 28%. Combine that with a 3.24 RC/27 and you can’t even conclude that Swisher is just plain unlucky this early in this season, but that he might really be this bad! This is Felipe Lopez bad here! Swisher was replaced by Shane Victorino, who won’t hit for power, but at least he’s more consistent than Swisher at this point and is a threat for stolen bases, already on pace to steal 30. The on-base% is low for my taste, but Juan Pierre who is notoriously known for his low on-base% has proven to be a solid option in the OF for both H2H and ROTO leagues alike as his speed has been his meal ticket to fantasy rosters for years now. Also, you can’t ignore the fact that Victorino, over the last 21 days of play has been the second best CF in our league, with only Josh Hamilton in his way for first. Victorino was also a player that I coveted before the draft and now I finally have room for him in my roster. Here’s hoping he’s a better selection than Felipe Lopez.
I finally had to rid myself of Fausto Carmona. The inconsistency, the low K/9 rate, the walks and finally the hip injury was just too much to overcome for me. His replacement came down to Bronson Arroyo, Glen Perkins, and Brandon Backe—at the beginning of the 9th week in play. I chose Backe, but a new wildcard has entered the mix in Kevin Slowey who is only owned in 33% of Sportsline’s fantasy leagues and only a meager 1.2% at ESPN. He will more than likely be a two-start pitcher in fantasy week #10 and is worth the flier in all fantasy leagues right now. As far as the former three pitchers mentioned, keep a close eye on all of them. Arroyo might still be available in a lot of leagues and has a history of moderate success and has pitched better in his past three starts. Perkins, along with Slowey, and former Twin Matt Garza, has been a top prospect in the organization and was pitching well before he got a heavy dose of Yankee bats this week. And Backe was hyped in the off season as a pitcher with medium risk, medium reward late round selection. Since his World Series debut, he has started only 13 games in the past two seasons and when he does start, he has an extreme home-road splits that might be worth a spot start in daily leagues when he does indeed have a home game to pitch on a given week. The following table shows what these four pitchers have done in their last three starts (GdAO is Groundouts to Air Outs ratio):
INN Kd9 BBd9 Hd9 GdAO ERA WHIP BAA
Backe, Brandon SP HOU 18.7/7.2/1.0 /8.2/ 0.8 /4.34/1.02/0.239
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN 17.3/9.4/4.2/9.9 /0.9/ 3.12/1.56/0.271
Perkins, Glen RP MIN 18.0/3.5/2.0/11.5/0.6/4.00/1.50/0.315
Slowey, Kevin SP MIN 20.7/5.7/1.7/7.4 /1/1.74/1.02/0.227
Arroyo’s old K/9 rate was back to familiar territory but the walks are unbearable and he is prone to getting lit up based on his H/9. However, his three-year average is a lot lower than the average shown for his last three starts. If you have the roster spot, pick him up now. Continue to monitor Perkins and roll the dice with Slowey for the upcoming week.
The following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of baseball leagues at Sportsline or ESPN:
Dan Wheeler—With Troy Percival shelved on the DL for the Tampa Rays, Wheeler is the leading candidate to close games on an interim basis.
Jake Westbrook—As Carmona goes on the DL, Westbrook becomes Cleveland’s #3 starting pitcher. A possible 2-start pitcher in Week 10.
Pedro Martinez—Is expected to make his first start since coming off the DL June 3 against San Francisco.
Jason Bergmann—A fantasy dark horse in the off season (and being drafted by yours truly), Bergmann was sent down to the minors after struggling in his first three starts (I, in turn, dropped him from my roster), and after finding himself in the minors, has been lights out for the Washington Nationals (I picked him up in fantasy week 8, but have yet to start him though). He is more than likely available in your league. Forget the fact that he pitches for a horrible team, a good pitcher, is a good pitcher and this guy is a good pitcher.
Justin Masterson—As far as MLB transactions go, when a team calls up one of their top pitching prospects, fans and fantasy leaguers alike are highly excited and filled with anticipation to see if they can live up to the hype. Dice-K is on the DL and Masterson is rumored to take his turn in the rotation. In the off season, Sportsline mentioned that he doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters, but he induces a lot of ground outs. Well, in 2007, his K/9 rate was at a respectable 6.7. This minor league season, it’s at a whopping 8.9! Not bad for a groundball pitcher, huh? One big concern is that he also gives up a lot of walks. The BB/9 rate is almost at 3.5 in ’08 and in his two starts for the BoSox this season, his rate is at 5 already. He is a possible two-start pitcher for week 10. If you believe in the hype, go and grab him while he’s still available because odds are, he’s going by fast.
As written by,
Felipe Melecio
Currently Listening To: Against Me! “As the Eternal Cowboy”
Currently Playing: TimeSplitters: Future Perfect
Currently Digging: Metalocalypse: Season 1
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