Micro to Macro: The Fantasy Baseball Short Stop Famine

My name is Felipe Melecio. I’ve been playing fantasy baseball since 2001. I’ve played all sorts of fantasy baseball games from salary cap to traditional 5x5, have won league titles at Sandbox, Yahoo, and Sportsline and have finally settled to concentrate all of my attention on a keeper league, fantasy-point style, head-2-head league, playing against competitive, knowledgeable people from all over the country. I’m a big fan of the game and I’m always open to learn more and more about the nuances of the game of baseball. For the next several weeks, this weekly article will focus on my fantasy baseball team and in my quick synopsis of my team, I’m hoping that I can delve into concerning matters regarding my team that more than likely you, the reader, will definitely be able to relate. Along with bad, I will also be discussing the positives that are occurring in this MLB season as well. Look at it as a focus in the micro to make sense of the macro baseball world around us.

As mentioned, I am in a keeper league and because of that I had to keep some players from last year’s roster. First off, Brandon Webb, starting the season 7-0 with an ERA of 2.48 and the WHIP is great at 1.06. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as I wanted, but with a batting average against (BAA) of .197 and a Component ERA (ERC) of 2.01 (ERC is a pitcher's ERA based on the hits and walks he allowed, rather than actual runs), he is proving why he’s one of the elite starting pitchers in all of baseball. Next, Fausto Carmona, who has been very bi-polar in his starts this year. One week he will look amazing, while the next he will have you pulling out your hair. Proving once again that ERA is overrated (he has it at 2.60), the ERC (stands at 5.27) and the WHIP is a horrible 1.70. I’m not even going to talk about his ridiculous strikeout rate (not that there’s anything to talk about anyway). It has been an unacceptable early performance from a guy who was a Cy Young candidate last season. Carmona was a lot of people’s keeper or early to mid round selection and is too early to release him, especially based on his breakout performance from last season and he does have a win-loss record of 3-1 so his team will help him get some wins. If you have him, you should be like me and continue to ride it out until he (hopefully) finds his groove again. Continue to insert other pitchers in the meantime. And my final pitching keeper was Chad Billingsley, who was always the odd man out in the Dodger rotation as the unofficial 6th or 7th starter in the bullpen when he was first called up to the team and has turn into a bonafide starting pitcher. The ERC at 4.88 and the WHP at 1.59 should worry some owners, but you have to remember that his first start was interrupted by a rain delay, then he would twice come out of the bullpen in the first week of the season, throwing his numbers out of orbit. One should consider that in his last 4 starts, he’s pitched deeper and deeper into games. The final proof that he should be improving as the season moves along is his year-to-date (ytd) strikeout rate of 13.01 (leads the Majors in that category with pitchers who have at minimum of 20 innings pitched) and 14.5 in his last four starts. If you have him on your roster, continue to start him with confidence as I think this kid can dominate hitters soon. If you think you can trade for him, he has been getting dealt for players like Raul Ibanez, Gil Meche, Zach Duke, and Michael Bourn. And those trades were done in the last 24-48 hours! Jump on him while you can still get him cheap!

As far as hitters go, Chase Utley was recently named a HERO for the month of April on this website. No further explanation needed on this player. He is awesome! Victor Martinez gave me the scare of a lifetime when on opening day, in an attempt to stretch a single into a double, he pulls up lame and holding his hamstring. Luckily, not only did he not go into the DL because of it, but he was playing at 100% less than a week later and hasn’t missed much action since the first week. V-Mart has yet to hit a homerun this season, but at this point, it’s not a matter of how, but of when, as in “when is he going to start going on a power streak in order to reach the 25 homeruns he was projected to hit this season?” He is one of the best catchers in the game and if you have him, just ignore him and get back to me by mid-June. You shall not be disappointed when he starts putting up big numbers. Besides, who else are you going to insert at your backstop position? Popular pick ups from waivers in the last 7 days include Jeff Clement, Paul Bako (an obvious Dusty Baker favorite), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (seems to only be playing every other day as of this writing), and Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, and Jose Molina who are respectable alternatives, but nowhere near the caliber that Martinez is. Trust me, continue to show patience on this guy. If you do indeed don’t have the patience for V-Mart AND have extra roster spots to fill, then immediately pick up Ryan Doumit (who is posting better numbers than Martinez, in case you haven’t noticed). We all know Doumit’s life story: impressed in 2005, lost the catching spot to Ronny Paulino in 2006, showed he could hit in 2007 as a part time hitter, and coming into 2008, he was a man with no position for the lowly Pirates. Well, it looks like the Pirates are finally giving him a chance to get some at bats together (on pace to reach over 450 at bats for the first time in his career) and could really produce this season. Nevertheless, he is no V-Mart. Ryan Braun was in my minor league slot (we get two minor league slots) and he wound up winning NL rookie of the year. He was magnificent last season and was a no-brainer to be kept for this year. He went into a slump in mid-April and missed a few games due to a minor shoulder injury and to take a break from said slump. After that, he’s been a monster. Matter of fact, in his last 7 games, he’s had 2 homers and 9 RBIs. Don’t worry much about Braun and continue to have him on cruise control.

Which brings us to the 7th and last keeper and the subject matter for the rest of this article—Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo got off to a horrendous start this season. I’m talking about the type of start that validates such fallacies as the “sophomore jinx” but it happened to Tulo. By the end of the third week of the season, it looked like Tulowitzki was on the verge of breaking away from his early season slump, he had a mediocre 4th week, and then was forced to leave the 04/29/08 game against the Giants due to a quad injury. Before the injury, Tulowitzki was stuck in a three-game hitless streak. Tulowitzki will return by the All-Star break—by the earliest. Which brings us Tulowitzki owners to a dilemma: Who do I/we replace him with?

We first look at teammate Clint Barmes who first became a known commodity in 2005 when he was given 350 at-bats that season. He was a very popular waiver pick up that year, but aside from the decent .288 batting average, his OPS were very low, even for a shortstop and in 2006, when he had 478 at bats, his overall numbers were just putrid. Right now, his Slugging% is a good looking .480, but only a .307 On-base%. He’s a really popular pickup this week, but I say there’s other SS out there who are worth a roster spot on your team.

Erick Aybar is hitting .298 for the season and has picked up regular playing time since Howie Kendrick went down with an injury for the Angels. He doesn’t hit for much power, his RC/27 (which estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score) score is in the low 4s and doesn’t walk much. I have no idea how this guy is able to score so many points in our fantasy points league seeing how he has only 5 doubles all year long. Roto-leaguers might want to have him because he’s on pace to steal 25 bases. I’m just baffled that 99% of ESPN fantasy baseball league owners have Aybar on their roster. I’m sorry but I like my SS/MIs to put up bigger numbers than the ones that are provided by Aybar. I’ll pass, thank you much.

We now move to Ryan Theriot who might be the best option so far and is owned by 84% of http://www.sportsline.com/ fantasy baseball owners. He’ll steal more bases than Aybar and has an overall better season than him as well (.316 avg.; .800 OPS; 5.52 RC/27). Other popular SS that might still be available are Orlando Cabrera (who you might want to pick up with the hopes he picks up the hitting really soon. I wouldn’t count on it though), Cristian Guzman (who’s having a career year so far this season, but we’ve all been hurt by Guzman before. Never again!), Jhonny Peralta (aside from his 25 homerun potential, has really done nothing since his breakout 2005 season), J.J. Hardy (who is described as a streaky hitter. Right now, he’s going through the wrong kind of streak at this moment), Bobby Crosby (low batting average, low OPS, but the RBIs are coming in real handy at the moment), Yuniesky Betancourt (real ordinary player, but .290 average is his one saving grace). As you can see, Theriot would be the logical choice and a fairly good chance he might still be available in your league. Also, be sure to look out for Yunel Escobar from the Atlanta Braves who is having a very good season. You might just be lucky enough to pick him up (who is at 96% ownership at Sportsline). If you’re like me and you HAVE to choose a player between Theriot and Escobar, you can continue to ride the Guzman hot streak until it runs out of fuel....

... or you could be like me and go with personal favorite, Felipe Lopez. Lopez, who just knocked in his 300th career RBI over the weekend, is currently on a six game winning streak, was relegated to a part time player from April 10-17. Since April 18, Lopez has hit .323 and has registered an OPS of .804 (by the way, I believe that a reliable baseball player should be able to post a minimum of a .790 OPS percentage). He has struck out as much as he walked, has 11 RBIs (only Miguel Tejada has more RBIs than Lopez during that same time span among SS), plays in the supposed hitters’ park that is Nationals Park, and best of all, he’s finally getting regular playing time after losing the everyday job at SS and 2B during spring training. The last time he’s hit 20+ homers was in 2005 when he was jacking them out of Cincinnati. Perhaps the new ballpark in Washington will lead him to return to his 2005 form. He also has a recent history of reaching an on-base percentage of over .350 (unlike Barmes, Cabrera, etc). He is eligible at 2B, SS, OF (or LF for those who split the OF positions into three). You can either get a big name like Hardy or Crosby, but why not go with the hot hand who might prove to be the most consistent player as the season progresses?

Fantasy Baseball - April's Heroes & Goats

April 2008 is now history. After one month there are a large number of players whose April's performance has either added to or taken away from your Fantasy Baseball Team's Performance. Whether you're playing Rotisserie, Head To Head, Salary Cap or any other type of fantasy baseball, the performances of these players have caused hours of roster reevaluation. The following highlights several of the Hero Hitters & Pitchers, followed by the Goats of the pitching class.

***Some of the Leading Hitting Performances

1: CHASE UTLEY - 2nd base - Philadelphia: 11 HR's, 23 RBI's, .360 Bat.Avg. & .430 On Base %: What a stud! Not really a surprise based on his prior season's performances. But at his current pace we may see another National League MVP coming out of Philadelphia (Howard 2006) & (Rollins 2007).

2: NATE MCLOUTH - Outfield - Pittsburgh: 7 HR's, 25 RBI, .342 Bat. Avg., & .425 On Base %: When was the last time we saw numbers like this coming out of Pittsburgh? He could be the steal of the season for anyone who was fortunate to draft him. His 22 steals in 2007 indicate that he has some speed to go along with his impressive April Stats. Could be the X Factor in many successful fantasy teams this year.

3: JOSH HAMILTON - Outfield - Texas: 6 HR's, 32 RBI's, .330 Bat. Avg., & .379 On Base%: Came to Texas in the deal that sent Edinson Volquez to Cincinnati, a deal that's helped both clubs. Hamilton, whose start to his baseball career was delayed to his reported drug addiction that resulted in eight different rehab programs, began to show his potential last season with 19 HR's, 47 RBI's & a .292 Avg. in a injury shortened 90 game season . He's a Keeper!

4: CARLOS QUENTIN - Outfield - Chicago White Soxs: 7 HR's, 21 RBI's, .298 Bat. Avg., & .433 On Base%: Carlos came to Chicago via a trade with Arizona during the off season. He's making GSM, Ken Williams look brilliant again with his fast start. It's extremely doubtful that any fantasy managers has Quentin on their draft radar this spring, but it's doubtful that you'll find him available in your league today.

5: NICK MARKAKIS - Outfielder - Baltimore: 4 HR's, 11 RBI's, 22 Walks, 6 Stolen Bases, .287 Bat. Avg. & .427 On Base%: Came into his own last season with 23 HR's, 112 RBI's & .300 Bat. Avg. Nick is a Five Tool Player with his batting ability, his speed and defensive skills. Add to this, the ball park he plays in (Hitter Friendly Camden Yards) and you have a foundation to build a team upon.

Other Leading April Hitting Performers: Derrick Lee (Cubs); Lance Berkman (Astros); Hanley Ramirez (Cubs); Rafael Furcal (Dodgers); Chipper Jones (Braves); Conor Jackson (Padres); Aramis Ramirez (Cubs) to name a few.......

***Leading April Pitching Performers.

1: CLIFF LEE - Cleveland: 5 Wins/0 Loses, 1 Complete game, 32 K's, 2 W's, 19 Hits in 37+ Innings & 0.96 ERA: Easily the Pitcher of Month for the major leagues. Not bad for a pitcher that was designated as the 5Th Starter for the Indians the day before the season started. It's extremely doubtful that he'll keep up this pace in the future months (after all he gave up a run last night!), but he's going to be a great pickup for the remainder of the season.

2: BRANDON WEBB - Arizona: 6 Wins/0 Loses, 34 K's, 29 Hits in 41 Innings & 1.98 ERA: Webb, the Diamondbacks Annual Cy Young contender, is the bedrock of the young Arizona pitching staff that has gotten off quickly this season. A Pitching keeper!

3: ERVIN SANTANA - LA Angels: 5 Wins/ 0 Loses, 29 K's, 30 Hits in 40 Innings & 2.48 ERA: Another preseason sleeper, who has put it together for the Angels. Ervin was 7 & 14 with a 5.76 ERA in 2007, but was also viewed by the club as a potential winning pitcher. Well, he's off to a great start and if he's on your roster, see how far you can ride him.

4: JOE SAUNDERS - LA Angels: 5 Wins/ 0 Loses, 20 K's, 31 Hits in 43+ Innings & 2.08 ERA: A mid-Season call up last season, Saunders achieved a solid 8 & 5 record with a 4.44 ERA. With injuries to both John Lackey and Kevin Escobar this season, Saunders got the opportunity to hold down a Starting Position in April. It might be a while before he gives his up.

5: FELIX HERNANDEZ - Seattle: 2 wins/1Loss, 1 Complete game, 41 K's, 39 Hits in 44+ Innings & 2.22 ERA: People forget that Felix is only 22 years old. Probably brought up several seasons too early by the Seattle Franchise, Felix is getting comfortable as a starter.

Other Leading April Pitching Performers: Brandon Lyons (Diamondbacks); Jake Peavy (Padres); Roy Halladay (Blue Jays); Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees); Tim Lincecum (Giants); Johan Santana (Mets); Cole Hamels (Phillies); Edinson Volquez (Reds); Dan Haren (Diamondbacks) to name a few.....

***April Hitting Disappointments***

1: RYAN HOWARD - Phillies: 5 HR's, 12 RBI's, .172 Bat.Avg., 38 K's, .297 OB%: Second Year in a row that Ryan has started off slowly. Team owners must have a lot of patience with Howard because as he indicated last year that once he finds his hitting eye he'll pay dividends daily, because 47 HR's and 137 RBI's can't be ignored. But in the meantime you'll have to put up with his strike outs which numbered 199 last year.

2: TRAVIS HAFNER - Cleveland: 3 HR's, 16 RBI's, .210 Bat.Avg., 27 K's, .302 OB% & .340 Slug%; This future Hall of Famer has reached 41 years old. Put this together with a slow start and one begins to wonder if it's a slump that he'll come out of.

3: JASON GIAMBI - Yankees: 5 HR's, 13 RBI's, .169 Bat. Avg., 11 K's, .345 OB% and a .411 Slug%; It's been Home Run or bust so far this season for Jason whose playing time at first Base has been increased this season. Still has not regained the opposite field punch that used to beat the shifts that the American League place against him on the field. Will remain in the batting order at least until Posada and Rodriguez come off the IR's.

4: TROY TULOWITZKI - Colorado: 1 HR, 11 RBI's, .152 Bat. Avg., 17 K's, .226 OB% and a .238 Slug%: A real surprise after one month. Recently when on IR after a very sub par performance particularly in lea of last year's performance. Both Colorado and the Fantasy Owners holding him on their roster hope he gets healthy quick and finds the stroke.

5: FRANK THOMAS - Oakland: 3 HR's, 14 RBI's, .180 Bat. Avg., 17 K's, .327 OB% and a .337 Slug%: Near the end? Thomas refused to sit on the pines in Toronto and now it's time for him to either regain his status as a premier hitter or face retirement. The question will be whether Oakland and his fantasy Owners have to patience to wait?

***April Pitching Disappointments***

1: BARRY ZITO - San Francisco: 0 wins/6 Loses, 7.43 ERA & 1.95 Whip: Has there been a bigger bust? Pitching is a pitcher's ballpark, Zito has just about lost it. Fantasy Owners have long dropped him and the question is how long with the Giants hold him despite the worst big contract in major league history.

2: C.C. SABATHIA - Cleveland: 1 Win/4 Loses, 7.88 ERA & 1.78 Whip: He's been a shock to Fantasy Owners, many who may have picked him up in the first round. Coming off a 19 & 7 Cy Young Award season, this start was a complete surprise. However, his last two appearances in the month seem to indicate that he's found the strike zone again.

3: JUSTIN VERLANDER - Detroit: 1 Win/4 loses, 6.50 ERA., 1.47 Whip: Like his team he has gotten off to a very slow start. But also like his team he possesses too much talent to remain at this level of performance for too long.

4: TED LILLY: 1 Win/4 Loses, 6.46 ERA, 1.50 Whip: Off to a slow start with Lou Pinellas' Cubs. Now a predominately finesse type pitcher, warmer weather should help him turn his season around.

5: PHIL HUGHES & IAN KENNEDY - Yankees: Combined these two rookies have been a train wreck for the Yankee pitching staff. After showing some promise in 2007, both were slated to start for the Bombers for the 08 season. This pressure, along with the pressure that the team refused to part with either of them in a trade with Minnesota for Johan Santana, has resulted in a combined 0 wins & 6 loses with a approx. 8.75 ERA. Hughes is currently on the IR for a strained Oblique Muscle (Sore Side). It remains to be seen how long either will remain on the staff.

Lastly, Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for their first winning April in team history!
GHD