Fantasy Baseball: First Quarter Report Card Part II

The following is a list of pitchers who passed the first quarter (or the first six weeks) of the MLB season with flying colors. Their performances were based on the point-value system of this league, and are based on the stats that were accumulated after all of the 05/11/08 games had ended. For a list of stats and their meanings, click here.

You will be reading about the Top 7 pitchers after six weeks of the season. I will summarize their outstanding start and will also determine what to expect in the second quarter of play.

1. Brandon Webb—WHAT TO LIKE? Webb is 8-0 with a WHIP of exactly 1 (I’m not even going to bother with decimal points!), a batting average against of .197, and an ERC of 1.85.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? A 6.59 K/9 is just a little low for my regular standards (by the way, it is my personal opinion that starting pitchers should be able to meet the following criteria: 7.5+ K9 and golf scores from the following: 3.5 BB/9, 8.5 H/9, and a WHIP of under 1.30. If these pitchers don’t meet most, if not all of the criteria, then there’s no use for them in the fantasy world). Not only does Webb not meet my K/9 standard (however, he is my fantasy ace. How’s that for a paradox?), but his rate is dragging behind his rate from last season, from his 3-year average, and even his career mark. This drop in the rate could be considered a slight concern as Webb’s strikeout totals have been somewhat inconsistent for most of his career.
ANALYSIS: Webb is having a career year in terms of ERA and WHIP. He is on pace to meet his 3-year average in Innings Pitched, strikeouts, and walks allowed. The one category in question is the hits allowed, which he’s on pace to finish at 169. He’s not going to shut down opposing batters every single game. He’s at 6.43 H/9 right now, but his 3-year average is around 8.40. Couple that with his low K/9 and you have a guy who can finish the season giving up 215 hits. He’s just not dominant enough to shut down opponents and as a sinkerball pitcher; he relies on hitters laying some wood on the ball. Sometimes, those balls put in play fall in for singles. Other than that, Webb is as consistent as you can get in the game and if you look up the word ACE in the dictionary, his picture would appear under the definition.

2. Cliff Lee—WHAT TO LIKE? Where to start is the better question. His ERC is at .54, a .60 WHIP, 7.86 K/9, and a 19.5 K/BB ratio! Wow, just wow!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? See stats above. Those numbers are so ridiculous, they’re almost alien. I’m not going to accuse the guy of steroid use, but those Kurt Warner conspiracy theorists should take a look at this guy as well (for those who don’t know, Gregg Easterbrook, one of my favorite columnists and a big influence in my writing had a running gag, nay, a conviction, that former NFL MVP QB, Kurt Warner was indeed an alien from another planet, playing football in human form. He probably wasn’t the only one with that thought, but he did have his own column). Warner—err Lee, has a BIPA of .202. Now you can take that in two ways: Lee is pitching so great, that he’s absolutely unhittable and is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Or you can be like me and believe that all pitchers eventually hit the BIPA norm of .300 sooner or later and that his numbers are going to skyrocket (in the wrong way) when hitters start figuring out what he’s doing differently this year, as opposed to years past.
ANALYSIS: See above. Lee was described to start the 2008 season as having “a trend of an increasing WHIP with a decreasing strikeout rate.” I do believe that is still true of this guy. You can look at his career numbers and judge for yourself, but his H/9 in the last three years is at 9.5 so he is not invincible. He should not be your team’s ace. He has the ability to be a good pitcher, but not someone you want carrying your fantasy pitching staff. You’re in a world of hurt if you do.

3. Ervin Santana—WHAT TO LIKE? .97 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 1.97 ERC. He has shown, heretofore, that his September performance from last season was no fluke.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Has a history of control problems and the inability to pitch on the road. His 3-year average WHIP is a concern.
ANALYSIS: It’s hard to tell with Santana because he is so young at 25 and it looks like his numbers from the first three years are not good indicators as to how he will do this season simply because he’s not the same pitcher or person from the last three years. He is very similar to Lee in the fact that both were demoted to the minors last season. The difference between him and Lee is that Lee is a veteran pitcher and we know what to expect from him. Santana still has a lot of untapped potential. The demotion from last season really did wonders for him and it has shown in his performance thus far. I’ll admit, I’m puzzled, but I do know that the .97 WHIP is a fluke, but more evidence from this year will be needed to make a complete analysis on this guy. Keep monitoring him and continue to use him as long as he’s pitching this well. He’s not an ace though and is not to be trusted with that role—yet.

4. Tim Lincecum—WHAT TO LIKE? 9.48 K/9 (Kerry Wood anyone?), 3.19 ERC, 5-1 pitching for the lowly Giants
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? That 1.25 WHIP is making me queasy and uncomfortable as his track record shows that he sometimes loses control of his stuff (Kerry Wood anyone?). His ERA is at 1.61. The ERC is still respectable, but something is just not adding up and the only conclusion I can come up is that his walks are going to drive you Lincecum owners completely crazy. Last season, his BB/9 was at exactly 4, he was projected by sportsline.com to hit the walk rate at 3.70+ and even if he finishes at 193 Innings Pitched (the average of the “on pace” and “projected” total of innings pitched), he’s still on pace to finish with a 3.5+BB/9. It is a major concern and Lincecum owners might want to trade him while his stock is still high. Keeper league owners might, MIGHT want to do the same as well, but the potential is there for Lincecum to be a dominant pitcher in the bigs.
ANALYSIS: As mentioned, Lincecum reminds me a lot Kerry Wood, except that Wood, in his best years, would be near unhittable. Lincecum’s H/9 is already at 8+ to start the season. Add to the fact that he can give up walks in bunches and fantasy baseball owners are in for a real roller coaster of a season. However, all hope is not lost for the season as the BIPA is already at .300, which means that there’s a good chance that he might finish the season with these numbers. The ERA will rise, but it won’t rise to ridiculous proportions. The WHIP should hover around 1.30 throughout the season. There’s still a good chance he might finish with a winning record just because he is so talented, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the .500 mark before the season ends. If you have the patience and immense pitching depth, Lincecum’s strikeouts alone should make him a good choice to start every week. You have been warned about the walks, nevertheless.

5. Roy Halladay—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.03 WHIP, 2.48 ERC, 4 CG!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Just like Webb, his K/9 is below 7. Halladay’s current 6.71 K/9 is actually above his 3-year average. The H/9 is also below his 3-year average, but he was projected to finish above the dreaded 8.5 based on his 8.6 H/9 from the past three years. Also has a disappointing 3-5 record pitching for the offensively anemic Toronto Blue Jays by 05/11/08.
ANALYSIS: Yes, Halladay is a very hittable pitcher! Halladay, however, pitches near perfect as he might scatter hits, but NOBODY is getting on base with a cheap walk. He has the ability to finish the season with a 1.5 BB/9! There is this thought among fantasy experts that pitchers who can’t get the K/9 between 7-7.5 are vulnerable to give up a lot of hits (as Halladay has shown already, unfortunately) because they’re not going to overpower hitters, meaning they’re going to give up a lot of earned runs and so rises the ERA. These pitchers have to be near perfect to be effective in this fantasy world of ours that we live. Even though Halladay has been categorized in that class of pitchers who can be described by that previous statement, Halladay is proving he’s not Brian Bannister. No, Halladay is a horse who will eat up a lot of innings and not give up walks at an alarming rate. He has shown he can pitch this way for years now so don’t worry about the lack of wins. They will come as they have before, and the low WHIP and ERA are good indicators that they will come in bunches like in years past.

6. Jake Peavey—WHAT TO LIKE? 8.56 K/9, 2.47 ERA; 1.08 WHIP
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? The fact that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. Oh, and that pesky sore elbow on the pitching arm. Yeah, that’s a big red flag if I ever saw one.
ANALYSIS: Peavy’s numbers were incredible as always and was off to a great start with the lowly Padres. The latest report showed no structural damage on his elbow after he had gone through an MRI. No timetable has been set for his comeback. It is a heavy blow for Peavy owners as pitchers like these don’t grow on trees. Don’t drop him just yet, but keep a very keen eye on his situation.

7. Chien-Ming Wang—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.13 WHIP, 2.39 ERC; 6-1 RECORD.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? He has the lowest strikeout rate among the top 7 at 6.23, however, he’s exceeding his projections and his K/9 from the last two seasons. Playing for a struggling Yankees team might affect his wins total, but was a healthy 6-1 by the end of the first quarter.
ANALYSIS: Wang is pitching very well thus far, but let’s not forget about his past. He usually gets a WHIP at about 1.25-1.30. Not bad, but that certainly doesn’t put you in the elite. Other pitchers who fall within this WHIP rate range are Braden Looper (ordinary 2:1 BB/K rate and the hit rate is well above 9+), Dana Eveland (.500 pitcher with a slightly higher K/9 ratio and sometimes has issues with control with a BB/9 of 3.80), and Mark Hendrickson (a ridiculously low K/9 of 3.75 and the H/9 is at 8.62). Those pitchers are top 60, but nowhere near the elite status that Wang is in, but all three have some similar weaknesses as Wang. Wang will give up hits and it’s doubtful he can keep his K/9 this high. What differentiates Wang from the Loopers of the fantasy world is that he does pitch for the Yankees, who might be struggling now, but by the end of the year, they should be one of the top teams in terms of W-L record AND he maintains the BB/9 rate at a very low rate (not as low as Halladay though). Wang must keep pitching this way in order to stay at the top with the elite.

THE NEXT 7

8. Jonathan Papelbon—THE GOOD: 11 Saves, .91 WHIP, 11.09 K/9, 1.75 ERC
THE BAD: He’s giving up a lot more hits than usual.
ANALYSIS: Let’s face it, he’s the best reliever in baseball, playing with arguably the best team in baseball. He’s simply the best.

9. Francisco Rodriguez—THE GOOD: 14 saves, a 2.64 ERC, and a H/9 of 6.14
THE BAD: A ridiculously low 6.14 (his 3-year average is at 12.07!) and a walk rate of 5.52 (3-year average of 4.02), and a high WHIP for a closer of 1.30 (1.15 is his 3-year average).
ANALYSIS: The ERA is the highest its been since 2003 and he’s on pace to not reach 90 K’s for the first time in his career, but he’s on pace to meet his projected goals in the walks, hits, and saves department and his WHIP from 2007 was at 1.25 and he’s capable of lowering the WHIP before the year is over. A solid reliever.

10. Carlos Zambrano—THE GOOD: 1.11 WHIP, 5-1 RECORD, 1.80 ERA
THE BAD: ERC is at 2.63 (still good, but almost a run higher than his actual ERA), K/9 is at 6.22 (3-year average is above 8+).
ANALYSIS: WHIP is at its lowest since 2005, but he’s on pace to not strikeout 170+ since 2003. Perhaps less strikeouts means less pitches thrown per game, which equals more durability. At any rate, pitching for the Chicago Cubs will almost guarantee he finishes with 15+ wins. A questionable ace, but definitely a stud.

11. George Sherrill—THE GOOD: 13 saves, 7.16 K/9, 3.42 ERC, 6.06 H/9 (lowest among the BIG FOUR relievers, with Joe Nathan being the other top save getter on the list).
THE BAD: 1.29 WHIP, which is a product of a 5.51 BB/9. The next RP with a similar WHIP is Jose Valverde who has a higher K/9 rate and a lower BB/9 than Sherrill gives up a lot of hits (the most hittable RP in the top 30 list based on his 8.84 H/9).
ANALYSIS: The reason Sherrill is racking up the saves is because the Orioles are winning and winning a lot of close games. The walk rate is unacceptably high even if its similar to K-Rod—Sherrill is not K-Rod! We don’t know if the O’s can keep winning at this rate, but so far it’s all good. Continue to ride the Sherrill hot streak, nay trade Sherrill while his value is this high.

12. Edinson Volquez—THE GOOD: 11.06 K/9, 1.23 WHIP, 1.06 ERA, 5-1 RECORD, 5.95 H/9
THE BAD: When I saw he only had a 2.17 K/BB ratio, I was puzzled as to why it was so low. Then I saw his BB/9 ratio and almost fainted. It’s at 5+! Worse, his ERC is at 2.53.
ANALYSIS: Volquez has become a national favorite among fantasy and non-fantasy fans of baseball. However, as you can see from the ridiculously high walk rate, he’s not as good as his ERA will indicate (that’s why ERA is no longer a viable way to measure a pitcher’s performance in fantasy—oddly enough, it is still used as THE stat to measure pitching performance in many roto leagues. And that is why I don’t like playing in roto-leagues), and unless he starts showing some control out there, I can’t buy the fact that he is a future ace for fantasy owners by 2010 (which would be the start of his third year as a full time starting pitcher). I firmly believe that as soon as hitters start figuring out this kid’s fastball, that hit rate will go up and all those guys Volquez is walking will finally come home. WHERE’S THAT PRECIOUS LOW ERA NOW? It will be up there matching his BB/9 at 5.00+.

13. Joe Nathan—THE GOOD: 12 saves, 1.14 WHIP, 9 K/9, 1.93 ERA
THE BAD: The ERC is at 2.80, 8.36 H/9 is a concern
ANALYSIS: The ERA will find its way to get over 2-2.10. As far as walks and hits go, he’s on pace to meet his 2008 projections. The K/9 rate is low, but he’s on pace to finish with his lowest K-total since becoming the Twins’ closer. Regardless, Nathan is a legit closer and a cornerstone in any fantasy pitching staff.

14. Aaron Cook—THE GOOD: 1.13 WHIP, 2.26 ERA, 6-1 RECORD
THE BAD: A 3.72 K/9 rate, .230 BIPA
ANALYSIS: It’s seems that every year, we get a really good stretch from Aaron Cook before the low K/9 rate catches up to him and drags him down the rest of the season. I have seen flashes from Cook like this before, but facts is facts, when a pitcher can’t strikeout batters, he has to be near perfect to eat up innings and be effective. Obviously, Cook is pitching as best he can as shown on the WHIP. However, the fact that the BIPA is only at .230 tells me that his great start to the season has been all luck and low skill. I don’t trust him and you should trust him either. Again, ride him out until its time for him to get dropped again or if you yourself are lucky enough, trade him at peak value and make out like a thief.

That ends Part II of this 2-part series. Last week, we talked about the top hitters who had the best first quarter of the season. This time, we talked about the pitchers. Of the 14, I say at least seven are the real deal, the other half are flukes and there’s a good chance that they might not show up on this list for the 2nd quarter. PLAY BALL!