2008 Preseason Fantasy Football Team Previews: New Orleans Saints

NFC South (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)


New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview:

After a magical "return to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina" season in 2006, 2007 left fantasy football players who relied on the Saints feeling not so holy. When Deuce McAllister went down, Reggie Bush was exposed as someone who couldn't carry the load. Marques Colston didn't get going until later in the year. Drew Brees still had a banner year, but it didn't translate into wins on the football field. However, this team returns enough fire power to be a good fantasy producer in 2008. If McAllister can return to form, he will take pressure off Reggie Bush and allow Bush to be the effective lightning threat this team needs. They also need to get improved seasons from WR David Patten and TE Eric Johnson. In the weak NFC South, it shouldn't take much for the Saints to get back on track and have another run to the playoffs while putting up a ton of points in coach Sean Payton's offense. From a fantasy perspective, this should be a team that produces some good prospects for your team.

Defense was not a strong point for the Saints last year (or the year before). Even when this offense was scoring tons of points, the defense couldn't consistently stop anyone. There was a heavy emphasis placed on defense in the draft this year, and the team acquired standout linebacker Jonathan Vilma from the NY Jets. However, until this unit actually shows us something consistently, they are better left on the waiver wire.

DT Sedrick Ellis and CB Tracy Porter were this team's 1st and 2nd round draft picks respectively. Neither player will make a significant fantasy impact for your squad this year. However, look for a splash from 2nd year WR Robert Meachem, who missed all of last year with injury and who has looked really good so far this offseason.


Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Robert Meachem, WR

The 2nd year WR out of Tennessee had high promise coming into the season last year, but a knee injury derailed his rookie year completely. He has been getting high praise from both the coaching staff and QB Drew Brees this offseason, and he appears to have learned enough to make a contribution this year. He may not be quite ready for prime time, but could produce enough to become a good complement to Marques Colston and a decent #3 WR for your fantasy team.

Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: Reggie Bush, RB

Reggie Bush has a lot of speed and skill, but I'm just not sure he has what it takes to really be a star in the league. He has been largely underwhelming since joining the league, and proved last year that he can't carry the load by himself. If Deuce McAllister can't return to form from injury, Bush will once again be exposed as someone who is a spot player at best. He should still produce good numbers and be a decent higher round draft pick, but temper your expectations and try to take him after round 4 or 5, or you'll probably regret it.

Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Drew Brees, QB

Even with Marques Colston starting off the season slowly, and losing both WR Robert Meachem and RB Deuce McAllister, Brees had a career season last year, and should only get better in 2008. His numbers should land him in or very near the top 5 overall fantasy QBs next year, and his draft value will be much better than that of QBs such as Tony Romo, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. If you can snag Brees in rounds 3-5, you should be in a position to build a championship team with great picks at RB or WR in the earlier rounds.

Up Next: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2008 Preseason Fantasy Football Team Previews: Carolina Panthers

NFC South (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Carolina Panthers Fantasy Preview:

Last season was a fantasy football season to forget for the Panthers. What started out as such as promising season for WR Steve Smith and QB Jake Delhomme quickly turned to disappointment once Delhomme went down. After that, Steve Smith disappeared, and pretty much took everyone else with him. With David Carr, Vinny Testaverde, and undrafted rookie Matt Moore under center, things didn't go as planned for the Panthers for the rest of the season. Injuries shut down a pretty promising defense, and overall, left the season a huge disappointment. Gone are defensive stalwarts DE Mike Rucker, LB Dan Morgan, & DT Kris Jenkins. Gone are offensive contributors RB DeShaun Foster, QBs David Carr and Vinny Testaverde, and WRs Keary Colbert and Drew Carter. The team invested heavily in RB Jonathan Stewart (1st rd, 13 overall), and brought back WR Mushin Muhammad (who had arguably his most fantasy relevant years in Carolina). They brought in WR DJ Hackett from Seattle and RB LaBrandon Toefield from Jacksonville to add offensive depth. However, none of these things will make much of a difference without a healthy Jake Delhomme. If he remains healthy, this team will make another run for the playoffs and many of these guys will again be fantasy relevant. If not, it will be another long year for the Panthers. Look for the former, and for a bounce back season for all-star WR Steve Smith.

There is no question that injuries and a stagnant offense destroyed this defense last year, which is a shame when you consider what they have been over the last few years. They lost a few big names, but the pieces are still there for this to be a good fantasy defense. Julius Peppers should have a much better year this year, and I expect this defense to at least be fantasy relevant. Should you draft them? That remains to be seen. Just keep them on the radar.

There was only 1 draft pick that fantasy owners will care about this year: RB Jonathan Stewart. At 5'11" and 235 lbs, Stewart is the big bruising back this team has missed since Stephen Davis, and his skills (1700+ yards & 11 TDs his senior season at Oregon) should translate into nice fantasy production on this team next year. 1200 yards and 8TDs are not out of reach for Stewart, even in a time share with DeAngelo Williams, and he should make an good #2 RB as a rookie.

Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Jake Delhomme, QB

Not much of a surprise here. When Jake Delhomme went down last year, this team was done. It was Jake that almost single-handedly won this team a Super Bowl in 2004, and his absence was the reason for this team's dreadful performance on the field last season. If Delhomme returns for a full season, this team will thrive. Delhomme was on the verge of a great season last year before injury, and if he picks up where he left off, he will put up #1 QB numbers. You should be able to grab him in the mid to late rounds of your draft as a #2, or as a low end #1 if you wait too long to grab a starting QB. He shouldn't disappoint in 2008.

Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: DeAngelo Williams, RB

Williams just can't seem to catch a break. There was talk of him getting more carries last season when DeShaun Foster didn't seem very effective, but that never really materialized. Now, going into the off season, he seems as if he'd get a chance to be a feature back, but the team drafts Jonathan Stewart to handle the load. He may have speed to burn, but he won't get the opportunities to make the most of it. He is oozing with potential, but unless Stewart goes down, he'll have to settle once again for being a change of pace guy. If he rushes for more than 5 TDs this year, he should consider himself extremely fortunate.

Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Steve Smith, WR

Steve Smith started the season on fire last year, catching 16 passes for 281 yards and 4 TDs. Unfortunately, once Jake Delhomme left, so did his production. As a result, he probably left a bad taste in the mouths of many fantasy owners, which will push his draft value down. However, with Delhomme back under center, and with DJ Hackett and Mushin Muhammad helping take defensive pressure away from him, Smith should again have top 3 WR numbers, and will be a steal if drafted in the 3rd round or later. There's a reason he was being discussed last year as the best WR in the game. Don't forget that on draft day.

Up Next: New Orleans Saints

Micro to Macro: The Jay Bruce Episode

So I’ve been talking about my fantasy baseball team, the Black Hole Army, which resides in this 12-team, fantasy point, head-2-head keeper league. I have been linking my team so people can see the roster, but have realized that our league might not allow outsiders to look on OR if you don’t have a www.sportsline.com ID, then you can’t get access to my league. So I will quickly rundown my club right now:

C- Victor Martinez
1B- Joey Votto
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Orlando Cabrera
3B- Ryan Braun
LF- Carlos Quentin
CF- Shane Victorino
RF- Jeff Francoeur
DH- Josh Hamilton

P- Jason Bergmann
P- Chad Billingsley
P- John Danks
P- Shaun Marcum
P- Dustin McGowan
P- James Shields
P- Brandon Webb

Bench—Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, George Sherrill, Justin Upton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Nick Swisher.

YES, the same Nick Swisher who I finally gave up on last week is back with the team almost 7 days later. I was mulling Swisher, Cody Ross, Fred Lewis, Luke Scott, and plenty of others, but after dissecting every possible scenario, it seemed it was best to give Swisher another chance. And of course, I had to cut Kevin Slowey as his two-start performance in week 10 was—well, let’s just say Slowey was the big disappointment in my life this week. YES, it’s that serious! I already gave Slowey his 15 minutes of fame in my column last week so that’s all I want to say about him. So after cutting what’s-his-name, I dig around the waiver wire in search for a new RF as Francoeur is really struggling in the past two weeks. So I’m off to finding a replacement RF and come up with those names mentioned. I started with Fred Lewis and I like his speed (great guy for stolen bases roto-leaguers, in case you missed it. He’s only owned in 23.2% of ESPN leagues and only in 28% of Sportsline leagues), but the guy bats left-handed and doesn’t hit lefties very well (.167 average, .557 OPS) and he’s facing Greg Smith and Dana Eveland this week and those guys are both LHP. So I passed on Lewis. Next comes Ross, who is crushing the ball the past two weeks, but then I saw the scheduled starters he was facing this week against the Phillies and Reds and I had to pass. Then I saw Scott, but after seeing Scott’s best career numbers vs. Swisher’s best career numbers, I saw that they were pretty similar to each other. The final kicker for Swisher was that he had a more favorable schedule than Scott, so I picked him up. However, the whole point was to replace Francoeur for fantasy week #11 and none of these guys made me feel comfortable to insert into the starting lineup. With Swisher, I’m hoping that his batting tear from week #10 finally jump starts his season. I’m afraid that Swisher has become that girl you want to break up with, but had a hard time dumping her, and when you finally did, couple of months later, you were back together again. The way I see it, if Swisher falters, there’s plenty of guys to replace him with.

Moving on, you guys already know that Troy Tulowitzki is on my DL-slot (I can’t wait for him to come back!) and rounding out the roster are minor leaguers Carlos Carrasco, pitcher from the Phillies’ organization and Matt Wieters, catcher from the Orioles farm system. As you can see, Carrasco is striking out a lot of guys, but his walk rate is getting close to that magical number of 3.5 (or as I like to call it, “flirting with disaster”), has a batting average against of .271 and has a WHIP of 1.38. Very disappointing numbers, but I’m hoping that he can turn into, get ready, Edinson Volquez. Looking at Volquez’s numbers, when he started his professional career, Volquez would give up hits in bunches. In an ironic twist, Volquez’s walk rate was very low. It wasn’t until 2006 until his hit rate went down, but his walk rate went up. When he was at Single-A Bakersfield in 2007, he registered a mediocre WHIP of 1.34, which isn’t too far off Carrasco’s WHIP. So here’s hoping Carrasco can cut back on the walks, the hits, and have his K/9 rate soar him into the Phillies’ rotation.

Wieters was the O’s top pick in last year’s draft and has an OPS of 1.018, has a K:BB ratio that’s close to 1, a .344 batting average and has 13 homers with 35 RBIs. I’m hoping Wieters becomes the next Victor Martinez, but I’m aware that young catchers take long to develop their offensive game when they get called up to the Majors as pitching and defense take top priority over hitting. There are plenty of examples of young catchers who are struggling offensively this season so far: J.R Towles, Jeff Clement, Jeff Mathis, heck John Buck was supposed to be a hot-shot catcher 3-4 years ago and is just finally hitting above .250 this season. Remember Toby Hall was the premiere catcher in the minor leagues in the Tampa Rays’ farm system earlier this decade? He was supposed to be the next best catcher as soon as he arrived into the Majors. Well, it’s 2008 and now he’s the White Sox’s backup catcher. That being said, I’m hoping his hot start in the minors does help him develop into the next V-Mart in 2-3 years so this is obviously a long-term project.

However the other reason I’ve settled on Wieters is because there are no big name minor leaguers available in my league. Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Homer Bailey were already owned in the off season, while Justin Masterson was picked up way back in April. Even I stuck with Eric Hurley and Gio Gonzalez before replacing those two with Carrasco and Wieters. With the league being so competitive, it has become almost difficult to pick up a top-notch prospect during the season because they’re all gone long before any buzz is generated in the rest of the fantasy world, let alone the regular, non-fantasy baseball world. You almost have to project the next group of top prospects for next year to catch a decent minor leaguer. So Wieters is on my roster until I find that next top-of-the-line prospect, but it is admittedly getting harder to do so and even though Wieters is a catcher, his numbers right now are still impressive, regardless of position. Even Baseball America has Wieters as their #3 prospect in their latest “hot sheet.”

And finally, I will like to end this week with the emergence of Jay Bruce into the foreground of fantasy baseball. When I’m not writing articles, I hit the fantasy forums, most notably, Yahoo! Answers. The controversy surrounding this guy was amusing to read since his call up. There were owners who wanted to trade him while his stock was high as they didn’t think he could keep up his torrid pace. There were owners who were willing to sell their entire team to build their ball club around him—some of those owners were in non-keeper leagues though. Some owners were willing to trade more established players on their team for help in other positions or categories and insert Bruce into their active/starting lineup. And then there were owners who were willing to stash away Bruce on their bench, like money hungry misers in hopes that he becomes a stud by the end of this season. And there were plenty of owners who refused to pick him up as they didn’t believe in the hype that this kid was generating, the recent success was too small of a sample to see if he could provide a consistent performance for the rest of 2008 and took a wait-and-see approach to this kid—some of those owners could use a guy like Bruce for their struggling team, but sometimes, old habits are hard to break. At any rate, if you didn’t have Bruce by May 26, 2008 or so, there was a good chance that you were not going to pick him up in the next few days following that date. As of this writing, Bruce is owned in 96% of Sportsline leagues (in my league, the owner who picked up Bruce stashed him in his minor league slot—LAST SEASON).

Now, I’m not going to explain this guy’s history, background, or pedigree. Let’s face it, this guy has pedigree, he’s not a fluke, he’s not all hype (you want to go after hype, go see Andruw Jones and the big fat contract he was given by the Dodgers). No sir! Gentlemen, what this kid has created since he was drafted in 2005 was “buzz.” Heck, the buzz peaked after spring training, when many baseball “experts” thought that the Reds should have started the season with Bruce as their starting CF. It was just a matter of time when he would be called up by the Reds this season. So we established that Bruce is real. Is he an elite player? No, not yet. Is he the 2008 version of Ryan Braun? Nope, now you’re just comparing apples and oranges. What Braun did in 2007 as a rookie is rare and placing those kinds of expectations on this 21-year-old are just not fair. So what is he? Bruce is a highly touted prospect who got called up in late May and he’s going to have to learn the MLB game as much as any rookie who gets called up during the season. If you can get “a lot” for him in a trade, good for you, but if you’re the one seeking Bruce, don’t go overboard, even if you’re in a keeper league. Trades are supposed to be fair for both sides. One owner at Yahoo! Answers tried to deal Cole Hamels (or Ervin Santana), Takashi Saito and Jose Reyes for Jay Bruce, Mariano Rivera, and Kelly Johnson. Talk about reaching for a player! Even if this were a keeper league, you’re only getting one good, “ideal” keeper player and giving up two elite super studs in Hamels and Reyes? The owner trying to acquire Bruce was no longer sold on the “Bruce Buzz”, but was buying the “hype.” Just because you see one player on ESPN’s SportsCenter 100 times on a given week (because they re-air episodes all morning long of course), doesn’t make him the premiere fantasy player in our fantasy world. Let ESPN try to sell you hype. In the fantasy world, you have to go with the “buzz” that a player creates, wherever he plays. There are a lot of hot-shot prospects that come up every year and its great to pick them up before anybody else in your league, but you have to limit your expectations. Once you start thinking that you have the second coming of Fernando Valenzuela or Ryan Braun, you just bought into your own hype of that player and the hype that was sold to you by outside forces. One should notice buzz and try to control hype (by the way, the buzz vs. hype argument was adapted from a recent Stephen King column in Entertainment Weekly. Here’s a quick synopsis of said article).

So what can you expect from Bruce the rest of this season? As of this writing, Bruce was on pace to reach 154 at bats, score 33 runs, hit 7 home runs, reach 26 RBIs, and steal 4 bases. His projected numbers coming into the 2008 campaign are as follows: 200 at bats, score 25 runs, hit 7 homers, reach 28 RBIs, and steal 6 bases. So even though he’s off to a hot start in his MLB career, he’s still only on pace to reach his projected numbers, not surpass them. And it looks like Bruce has already hit a rookie wall of sorts as his last 6 games, he’s only hit .268, with a laughable .666 OPS. Bruce does have as many walks as strikeouts, but due to a small sample of that ratio, it doesn’t mean he necessarily has a good approach or plate discipline, but it does mean he has a good contact rate (after all, he is hitting .391 thus far). Nevertheless, in the minors, he did put up a dangerous walk/strikeout ratio. He struck out 106 times in 2006 and a combined 135 times at three different stops in 2007. Whatever “rookie wall” or slump he encounters this season will not be short-lived if he continues to strikeout like he did in the minors.

So that’s my rant on Jay Bruce. He’s good, he’s real, he has pedigree, the tools to be a successful Major Leaguer. Is he going to undergo some growing pains? You bet. If I had Bruce, in a non-keeper league, I would keep him around based purely on potential. If somebody is foolish to offer me Cole Hamels, though, I would hit the accept button in record time!

At this point, I must mention that I will not submit an article next week as I will be on vacation in good old Seattle, WA. The highlight of the trip will definitely be visiting gorgeous Safeco Field. Too bad the Mariners are out of town, but the way they’ve been playing, they might as well move to Oklahoma with the Supersonics. Until then, you can catch me at Yahoo! Answers until June 17 and you should consider yourself lucky if you receive my help.

As written by,

Felipe Melecio
Currently Listening To: Red I Flight, “Of Myth and Men”
Looking Forward To: Trip to beautiful Seattle, WA
Really Enjoying: Euro2008 (Go Spain!)

2008 Preseason Fantasy Football Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

NFC South (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)


Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview:

Last season the Falcons were a fantasy football nightmare. They were bad on offense. They were bad on defense. Their quarterbacking was suspect at best, thanks to the incarceration of Michael Vick. Their offensive line was offensive. Their coach quit. Just terrible. If there was one bright spot, it was the emergence of Roddy White at receiver. A new GM showed the door to many of the holdover "stars" on the team: RB Warrick Dunn, QB Byron Leftwich, TE Alge Crumpler and CB DeAngelo Hall . . . all gone. Brought in to change the direction of the team were RB Michael Turner (San Diego), K Jason Elam (Denver) and #3 overall draft pick QB Matt Ryan (Boston College). Only time will tell if or when these guys can turn the fortunes of the franchise around. There are a LOT of questions surrounding this team . . . again. Can Matt Ryan or holdover Chris Redman carry this team this season, and take advantage of another potential breakout season by talented WR Roddy White? Can Michael Turner shoulder the load and be effective behind that offensive line? Will they ever get Jerious Norwood the ball more? Can they replace Crumpler's production at TE? Will the defense stop anyone? You might want to temper your expectations from this team with all these questions yet to be answered.

Once again, the defense wasn't very good. Chances are, it won't be very good again this season, and could spend a LOT of time on the field. Stay away.

Matt Ryan was drafted #3 overall to be the new offensive savior of this franchise. It remains to be seen if he can, in fact, make everyone in Atlanta forget about the Mike Vick era. He has some skills, but I wasn't too impressed with him in college, and wouldn't be surprised if Chris Redman takes the majority of the snaps this year. Still, Ryan could turn into a good dynasty choice. Unfortunately, I don't see him as more than a bye week fill-in this year.


Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Michael Turner, RB

I'm sold. Even though he's an obvious choice, he's also the safest choice given the state of the offense and the commitment that was made to him. Turner has the size and speed to be a great #2 RB, and should be the focal point of the offense. There will again be struggles at QB, but hopefully there will be enough decent play to keep defenses from keying on Turner. WR Roddy White should help keep teams honest, and Turner should have a breakout fantasy season in his first opportunity to be a feature back. Grab him in Round 3 or 4, and you'll be happy you did.

Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: Matt Ryan, QB

Can anyone be a disappointment on a team that no one expects anything from? Maybe not, but I think some people will over value Ryan because he was a high draft pick. Most rookie QBs struggle coming out of the gate, and Ryan should be no different. Temper your expectations greatly for this guy, who sort of reminds me of David Carr coming out of college.

Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Chris Redman, QB

I know Matt Ryan was a high draft pick. I know a lot of money was invested in him. I also know that throwing QBs to the wolves isn't the best way to get a good return on your investment. In a perfect situation, Chris Redman would play most of the season and give Ryan a chance to learn the ropes before he starts running for his life. Redman did a decent job of getting the ball to Roddy White last year, and with a decent running game to fall back on, could surprise this year. He could be a good backup QB this year, and may even have a few surprisingly good games. He'll be dirt cheap in any draft.

Up Next: Carolina Panthers

2008 Preseason Fantasy Football Team Previews: Arizona Cardinals

NFC West (Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals)

Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Preview:

The biggest fantasy football question hanging over this team in 2008 is: who will be the starting quarter back? Matt Leinart has been good in spots and dreadful in others, and after bowing out last year with another injury, Kurt Warner stepped in and ignited the offense. There are rumblings that even though Leinart is doing and saying all the right things to get ready to begin the season as the starter, the coaching staff may not think he's best suited for the job. That battle will play itself out in training camp, but it was obvious to most that Warner ran the offense better than Leinart did. If Leinart doesn't make a huge leap forward this year, he may be looking for a job elsewhere soon. Stud duo WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin should once again be electric on the field, and if the offensive line can ever come together, it could be a good season for Edgerrin James. However, offensive line issues have been in Arizona for a while now, so banking on a great season from Edge is dicey. Tight end Leonard Pope started showing his promise last year, and should continue to improve.

The defense returns standout linebacker Karlos Dansby, defensive end Bertrand Berry, cornerback Antrel Rolle, but lost linebacker Calvin Pace to the NY Jets. I don't see much that stands out about this defense that was middle-of-the-road last year at best. They may be decent fill-ins or waiver wire material, but I don't see them improving much from last year.

The Cardinals picked up corner back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round this year, and he has the skills to help this defense sooner than later, as does DE Calais Campbell (2nd rd). WR Early Doucet (3rd rd) is an intriguing prospect, but this year will be no better than Bryant Johnson's replacement as a #3 receiver. Leave him on the waiver wire.


Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Leonard Pope, TE

At 6'8", Pope is a huge red zone target, and he really came in his sophomore season last year. If this team finds itself throwing the ball as much as usual, or if injuries again creep into the wide receiving corps, Pope could find himself with another strong year. Remember, its much easier to find your tight end (esp. when he's 6'8") for dump offs when you're running for your life behind a sieve of an offensive line. Pope won't cost you much at all in drafts, and if you don't draft a TE until the later rounds, he's a good choice.

Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: Edgerrin James, RB

It would be easy to pick Matt Leinart, but don't forget about a declining Edgerrin James. The offensive line (and more times than not, it was truly offensive!) and age are catching up with James, and he doesn't hit the hole like he did in Indy. His draft value won't be what it was last year, but neither will his production. Buyer beware!

Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Kurt Warner, QB

Warner has shown he knows how to move this offense, and how to utilize both Fitzgerald and Boldin well. If Leinart doesn't get his act together quickly, his short leash will be pulled and Warner should once again excel under center. He is a great late round gamble.

Next Up: Atlanta Falcons

2008 Preseason Fantasy Football Team Previews: St. Louis Rams

NFC West (Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals)

St. Louis Rams Fantasy Preview:

Remember when these guys were the "Greatest Show On Turf"? I know. Think harder. This team used to be such a boon for fantasy football talent, but that isn't necessarily the case anymore. Age started catching up to this team, and free agency, coaching turn over (where is Mike Martz when you need him?) and injuries have taken its toll on this team. Still, there is some hope. Stephen Jackson is still a top 5 running back in any format, and as long as he's around, there is hope. Let's just hope he stays healthy. If he does, he will be worthy of a high first round draft pick. Gone are Jeff Wilkins (retired) and Issac Bruce (released, now with the San Francisco 49ers). Marc Bulger SHOULD be ready to go after injuries forced him to miss time last year, and he will still have stud (though aging) wide receiver Torry Holt to throw to, as well as Randy McMichael at tight end, who should get more offensive attention this year. Drew Bennett has been promoted to #2 WR, so it remains to be seen if he is capable of filling Bruce's shoes. Newly acquired kicker Josh Brown should at least come close to his numbers from last year.

This defense spent much too much time on the field last year, but still has a few impact players in ILB Will Witherspoon, DE Leonard Little, and S Corey Chavous. The drafting of #2 overall pick Chris Long can only help, but this is a defense to leave on the waiver wire.

As mentioned above, DE Chris Long should have an immediate impact on the defense, but that may take a while to translate into strong IDP numbers or team defensive numbers. WR Donny Avery (2nd rd) is a small speedy receiver and seems destined for the slot. Neither is a good draft candidate this year.


Fantasy Surprise for 2008: Drew Bennett, WR

Its time for Bennett to put up or shut up. He has all the tools to make an impact on this team, and he has the confidence of the coaching staff (which is why they let Issac Bruce walk). Torry Holt is on the decline, and this offense desperately needs another receiver to return to the balance it once had and spread the field more for Stephen Jackson. I say this is the year he puts it all together and has a fantasy worthy performance.


Fantasy Disappointment for 2008: Brian Leonard, RB

A lot of people were high on Leonard coming out of college, and with good reason: he's a versatile runner who can do a lot of things with the ball in his hands. He was a good handcuff to Jackson last year, and made the most of his opportunities to start. Unfortunately, that role now belongs to Antonio Pittman, and Leonard will be relegated to mostly blocking duties. If you're looking to draft a handcuff for Jackson, don't make the mistake of taking Leonard.

Best Fantasy Draft Value for 2008: Marc Bulger, QB

Marc Bulger was having a great season before he was derailed by injuries last year. If Drew Bennett & Randy McMichael can pick up some offensive slack (and if Stephen Jackson stays healthy), Bulger should once again be a top producer. He should slide down draft boards based on his production last year, and is a good later round gamble to take with lots of upside.


Next Up: Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy Baseball Season Is 1/4 Over . . . Now What?

You hear it constantly on Sports Shows/Baseball Broadcasts/ESPN, etc., etc., etc. (It's a long season!!!!!) This goes for all the different types of Fantasy Baseball (Although I favor Head to Head.)

Case #1: Your team is either in last place or near the bottom of your league's standings.

My strategies for baseball, as for any other season, is to divide the season into four quarters. I may have tanked the first quarter due to a poor draft, poor wavier pickups, poor trades, key injuries or all the above. It is not the time to dwell on past mistakes but to learn to avoid them in the next quarter. The immediate goal for the second quarter is to "right the ship!" Quantify where your strengths and weaknesses are. Review the wavier wire daily. Some of my best pickups in a given season come to me via another team's lack of patience with a player. How many teams have all ready dropped J. Giambi (NYY) and Robinson Cano (NYY) due to their poor season starts. On the other hand, you might have carried one or both of these players based upon the knowledge that soon they'll bust out of it (which they are currently doing!). If your roster has two or three players like the aforementioned, this very well could be the reason why you are so low in the standings. With increased productivity on their part you might rise in the standings just by maintaining the same roster that failed you for the first quarter of the season. A classic example of "Patience has it's virtue!" But in fantasy sports, patience of this type is very difficult. Other examples of players that could bust out in the seond quarter could be Prince Fielder (Milw), Roy Oswalt (Hous), Ken Griffey (Cinc), Carlos Beltran (Mets), the entire Seattle Mariner Roster, Frank Thomas (He ain't dead yet!), Joe Borowski (Cleve), and many many more.

Case #2: Your team is on or near the top of the league's standings.

In essence you review your roster in the same way as the lower ranked team but with a increased slant on your above average performing players. Ask yourself, can you expect them to maintain the same level of performance in the second quarter as they did in the first. Many teams fall in the standings because they fail to maintain their roster in the same way as the first quarter. Ask yourself, can Chipper Jones (Atl) maintain his current level of batting (+.400 Bat.Avg.) for the foreseeable future. Chances are there will be a drop off. A slight drop off might not have a negative effect upon your team's weekly performance. But a large drop off, which is mathematically more certain, might be the difference between victory and defeat. If the later occurs do you have a player or players who could carry the load? Usually a good defeat or two will force you to react (don't over react to a defeat!). This where the patience factor comes into play again. Review your weekly strengths and weaknesses. React when appropriate. (Example: Last week one of my Yahoo Fantasy Teams had a pitching staff that came in with a 1 win and 7 Loss weekly performance. Since I have a good deal of confidence in this staff, I didn't feel the need for any major roster moves. This week, Thur Friday, the same staff is 4 & 0 with a sub 2.00 ERA.) Thus don't destroy your roster that got you here due to one poor week.

Review:

1. Have patience with high performers.
2. Have a plan if someone drops off or is injured.
3. Review your league's transaction logs daily.
4. If you are in multiple leagues, identify players being picked up or dropped more frequently and check their availability in your league.
5. Remember, it's a long season!

OldJerseyman

Micro to Macro: Bizarro World Fantasy Baseball, More Pitching and SS Woes

So I haven’t talked about my fantasy baseball team in awhile. Last time I discussed the topic, I was struggling to find a SS when Troy Tulowitzki went down with quad injury? Well the last two weeks, I’ve been working on the 1st Quarter Report Cards and I’m happy to announce that Chase Utley and Carlos Quentin made the first team, while Josh Hamilton made the second team (AND he’s on the cover of SI this week. Go read his remarkable story!). On the pitching side, Brandon Webb and George Sherrill made the cut.

Before I get to my club, I will like to talk about a Sports Illustrated magazine article I read last week and it reads like the last two articles that I wrote for this website. The article mentions that the MLB season is in this state of “Bizarroism” where up-is-down-and-down-is-up—or at least that’s my understanding of how Bizzaro World works in the Superman comics. I hate Superman though so.... but the point of the article was to sum this wacky season of MLB, which includes more parity, an emphasis on giving younger players a chance, and a style of baseball not seen since the 1980s. It’s an entertaining and must read for any baseball fan, both fantasy and non-fantasy leaguers alike.

In that same article, entitled The Bizarro Supermen (the article mainly talks about the Tampa Rays), they have the All-Bizarro Team written by Nate Silver from the highly respected baseball juggernaut that is BASEBALL PROSPECTUS. They categorize players who are having surprising starts to this season as either “Real” or “Fluke.” A quick rundown of the players are as follows:

LF, Carlos Quentin—We both AGREE that his season is for REAL, but for different reasons. Mr. Silver’s explanation of Quentin’s great start was because he finally has a full time spot in the big leagues. My reasoning behind his success was because of pedigree (he’s always been a highly touted prospect), a well-noted high on-base%, and because of a shoulder injury that he didn’t recuperate from—until now. Although playing time has something to do with it, Mr. Silver made it seem that that was the only reason why Quentin is doing great so far this season.

CF, Nate McLouth—WE BOTH AGREE THAT HE’S A FLUKE.

RF, Ryan Ludwick—Though I haven’t given Ludwick an evaluation on this website, I also agree with Mr. Silver’s final assessment that he too is a FLUKE.

3B, Blake DeWitt—DeWitt was available in my league and was putting numbers to replace Justin Upton from my DH slot. But just like Silver, I looked at his minor league numbers and came to the same conclusion that his hot start can be considered a FLUKE.

SS, Ryan Theriot—Mr. Silver slots “The Riot” on the FLUKE list. I will reluctantly agree with Silver, but on a fantasy team, Theriot will find ways to make it on a fantasy roster. Remember, I spoke highly of Theriot a couple of weeks ago and would’ve picked him up if he were available (instead of Felipe Lopez). His true position on a baseball team is that of a utility infielder, but hitting #2 on a potent Cubs’ offense and his approach at the plate won’t hurt you. For you Roto-leaguers, I think he can hit over .285-.290, score 80+ runs, and will steal 25+ stolen bases.

2B, Dan Uggla—I mentioned in my Hitters’ First Quarter Report that Uggla has the ability to be the second best 2B in fantasy baseball, but just like Silver, his strikeout rate is alarming. Silver sums it best by saying that Uggla “has too many holes in his swings.” Nevertheless, based on his power numbers, we both feel Uggla is the REAL deal.

1B, Connor Jackson—We both agree that he’s for REAL.

C, Mike Napoli—Silver believes that Napoli’s power numbers are for REAL, but I think the low batting average (and based on his history, it will be difficult for him to get it higher than .250), his KO rate (strikes out roughly every 3 at-bats), and the fact that backup Angels’ catcher, Jeff Mathis already has 77 at-bats (to Napoli’s 103) and that leads me to conclude that he may not necessarily be a fluke, but he is not the best option at catcher for your fantasy team.

RP, Brian Wilson—Silver has him as a FLUKE because Wilson was saving 71% of the Giants’ victories. I believe, however, that the reason that Wilson is a major FLUKE is because his WHIP is at 1.64. No other RP with 10+ saves has a WHIP that high, except for Jason Isringhausen (1.78) and Eric Gagne (2.02) and they both eventually lost their jobs as closers (almost at the same time, by the way. Both are now on the DL). The 10+ K/9 rate is great, but only Frankie Rodriguez has a higher walk rate than Wilson and the H/9 rate is embarrassing with only the aforementioned Izzie and Gagne having rates higher than Wilson. At this rate, Wilson might end up losing the closer’s role soon (except that the Giants don’t have anybody else that can take the spot away from Wilson).

SP, Edinson Volquez—Silver thinks he’s for REAL. It seems that everybody in this world thinks Volquez is having the greatest breakout party since the i-Phone first became readily available. I’m not questioning the kid’s talent. He certainly has the goods and the right numbers to prove it. However, as I mentioned last week, until the walks go down, I’d be more cautious on Volquez’s hot start. Already, the BB/9 rate has slightly increased, but his H/9 has gone up slightly as well. I think he’s off to a FLUKY start and we’ve been burned by former Texas Rangers’ pitching prospects before (Volquez being an ex-Rangers’ prospect). Look for him to finish with a 1.30+ WHIP. The strikeouts will definitely be there, but the walks are insane for a pitcher who’s supposed to be part of the elite in terms of fantasy pitchers.

Ok, now on to my team. Felipe Lopez was not the SS I was hoping for. So far in the month of May, Lopez hit .226 with a pathetic .599 OPS. Meanwhile, teammate Cristian Guzman, who was available for me in early May, has been the second best hitting SS in our league for the month of May. Doh! Clint Barmes, a guy who I refused to pickup, ended up hitting .391 with a 1.077 OPS. Double Doh!!! All the warning signs were there, but I was blinded by Lopez’s hot streak in April. In my defense, the list of SS available was pretty thin after that first week in May. You guys saw the list in early May, it was very demoralizing. However, since Lopez is deciding to give every Felipe in this world a bad name, I had no choice but to succumb to the fact that I will be playing musical chairs at SS, either until Tulowitzki proves he’s back to his 2007 form or for the rest of the season (which defeats the purpose of keeping Tulowitzki for the 2008 campaign, geez!). There’s plenty of underachieving SS available in my free agent pool and for the next scoring period, Orlando Cabrera gets the first crack to see if he can be a formidable replacement on my roster at short (hey, a guy who is concern about his stats as much as I am is always a good sign! Think Rickey Davis when he was trying to achieve his first triple-double), which is proving to be a curse-filled position for me.

So we turn from my season-long SS saga to the fall of Nick Swisher who was my first pick in this year’s draft (a second rounder as I traded away my 2008 first round pick. Long story). Swisher was a great pick at that time because he qualified at multiple positions. It was a luxury to have a guy who had you covered in 2 OF positions and at 1B as I can concentrate on literally picking the best player available, regardless of position in subsequent rounds. Unfortunately, Swisher was nothing more than dead weight on my club. Final numbers for Swish went like this: .206 BA, .648 OPS, on pace to barely hit over 10+ homers for this season (when he was projected to hit 33), and was having career lows in Iso Power, and in the SECA categories. Worst of all, his Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) (look all the way to the bottom of this article for explanation of this stat) was at 28%. Combine that with a 3.24 RC/27 and you can’t even conclude that Swisher is just plain unlucky this early in this season, but that he might really be this bad! This is Felipe Lopez bad here! Swisher was replaced by Shane Victorino, who won’t hit for power, but at least he’s more consistent than Swisher at this point and is a threat for stolen bases, already on pace to steal 30. The on-base% is low for my taste, but Juan Pierre who is notoriously known for his low on-base% has proven to be a solid option in the OF for both H2H and ROTO leagues alike as his speed has been his meal ticket to fantasy rosters for years now. Also, you can’t ignore the fact that Victorino, over the last 21 days of play has been the second best CF in our league, with only Josh Hamilton in his way for first. Victorino was also a player that I coveted before the draft and now I finally have room for him in my roster. Here’s hoping he’s a better selection than Felipe Lopez.

I finally had to rid myself of Fausto Carmona. The inconsistency, the low K/9 rate, the walks and finally the hip injury was just too much to overcome for me. His replacement came down to Bronson Arroyo, Glen Perkins, and Brandon Backe—at the beginning of the 9th week in play. I chose Backe, but a new wildcard has entered the mix in Kevin Slowey who is only owned in 33% of Sportsline’s fantasy leagues and only a meager 1.2% at ESPN. He will more than likely be a two-start pitcher in fantasy week #10 and is worth the flier in all fantasy leagues right now. As far as the former three pitchers mentioned, keep a close eye on all of them. Arroyo might still be available in a lot of leagues and has a history of moderate success and has pitched better in his past three starts. Perkins, along with Slowey, and former Twin Matt Garza, has been a top prospect in the organization and was pitching well before he got a heavy dose of Yankee bats this week. And Backe was hyped in the off season as a pitcher with medium risk, medium reward late round selection. Since his World Series debut, he has started only 13 games in the past two seasons and when he does start, he has an extreme home-road splits that might be worth a spot start in daily leagues when he does indeed have a home game to pitch on a given week. The following table shows what these four pitchers have done in their last three starts (GdAO is Groundouts to Air Outs ratio):


INN Kd9 BBd9 Hd9 GdAO ERA WHIP BAA
Backe, Brandon SP HOU 18.7/7.2/1.0 /8.2/ 0.8 /4.34/1.02/0.239
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN 17.3/9.4/4.2/9.9 /0.9/ 3.12/1.56/0.271
Perkins, Glen RP MIN 18.0/3.5/2.0/11.5/0.6/4.00/1.50/0.315
Slowey, Kevin SP MIN 20.7/5.7/1.7/7.4 /1/1.74/1.02/0.227

Arroyo’s old K/9 rate was back to familiar territory but the walks are unbearable and he is prone to getting lit up based on his H/9. However, his three-year average is a lot lower than the average shown for his last three starts. If you have the roster spot, pick him up now. Continue to monitor Perkins and roll the dice with Slowey for the upcoming week.

The following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of baseball leagues at Sportsline or ESPN:
Dan Wheeler—With Troy Percival shelved on the DL for the Tampa Rays, Wheeler is the leading candidate to close games on an interim basis.
Jake Westbrook—As Carmona goes on the DL, Westbrook becomes Cleveland’s #3 starting pitcher. A possible 2-start pitcher in Week 10.
Pedro Martinez—Is expected to make his first start since coming off the DL June 3 against San Francisco.
Jason Bergmann—A fantasy dark horse in the off season (and being drafted by yours truly), Bergmann was sent down to the minors after struggling in his first three starts (I, in turn, dropped him from my roster), and after finding himself in the minors, has been lights out for the Washington Nationals (I picked him up in fantasy week 8, but have yet to start him though). He is more than likely available in your league. Forget the fact that he pitches for a horrible team, a good pitcher, is a good pitcher and this guy is a good pitcher.
Justin Masterson—As far as MLB transactions go, when a team calls up one of their top pitching prospects, fans and fantasy leaguers alike are highly excited and filled with anticipation to see if they can live up to the hype. Dice-K is on the DL and Masterson is rumored to take his turn in the rotation. In the off season, Sportsline mentioned that he doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters, but he induces a lot of ground outs. Well, in 2007, his K/9 rate was at a respectable 6.7. This minor league season, it’s at a whopping 8.9! Not bad for a groundball pitcher, huh? One big concern is that he also gives up a lot of walks. The BB/9 rate is almost at 3.5 in ’08 and in his two starts for the BoSox this season, his rate is at 5 already. He is a possible two-start pitcher for week 10. If you believe in the hype, go and grab him while he’s still available because odds are, he’s going by fast.

As written by,

Felipe Melecio
Currently Listening To: Against Me! “As the Eternal Cowboy”
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