So I haven’t talked about my fantasy baseball team in awhile. Last time I discussed the topic, I was struggling to find a SS when Troy Tulowitzki went down with quad injury? Well the last two weeks, I’ve been working on the 1st Quarter Report Cards and I’m happy to announce that Chase Utley and Carlos Quentin made the first team, while Josh Hamilton made the second team (AND he’s on the cover of SI this week. Go read his remarkable story!). On the pitching side, Brandon Webb and George Sherrill made the cut.
Before I get to my club, I will like to talk about a Sports Illustrated magazine article I read last week and it reads like the last two articles that I wrote for this website. The article mentions that the MLB season is in this state of “Bizarroism” where up-is-down-and-down-is-up—or at least that’s my understanding of how Bizzaro World works in the Superman comics. I hate Superman though so.... but the point of the article was to sum this wacky season of MLB, which includes more parity, an emphasis on giving younger players a chance, and a style of baseball not seen since the 1980s. It’s an entertaining and must read for any baseball fan, both fantasy and non-fantasy leaguers alike.
In that same article, entitled The Bizarro Supermen (the article mainly talks about the Tampa Rays), they have the All-Bizarro Team written by Nate Silver from the highly respected baseball juggernaut that is BASEBALL PROSPECTUS. They categorize players who are having surprising starts to this season as either “Real” or “Fluke.” A quick rundown of the players are as follows:
LF, Carlos Quentin—We both AGREE that his season is for REAL, but for different reasons. Mr. Silver’s explanation of Quentin’s great start was because he finally has a full time spot in the big leagues. My reasoning behind his success was because of pedigree (he’s always been a highly touted prospect), a well-noted high on-base%, and because of a shoulder injury that he didn’t recuperate from—until now. Although playing time has something to do with it, Mr. Silver made it seem that that was the only reason why Quentin is doing great so far this season.
CF, Nate McLouth—WE BOTH AGREE THAT HE’S A FLUKE.
RF, Ryan Ludwick—Though I haven’t given Ludwick an evaluation on this website, I also agree with Mr. Silver’s final assessment that he too is a FLUKE.
3B, Blake DeWitt—DeWitt was available in my league and was putting numbers to replace Justin Upton from my DH slot. But just like Silver, I looked at his minor league numbers and came to the same conclusion that his hot start can be considered a FLUKE.
SS, Ryan Theriot—Mr. Silver slots “The Riot” on the FLUKE list. I will reluctantly agree with Silver, but on a fantasy team, Theriot will find ways to make it on a fantasy roster. Remember, I spoke highly of Theriot a couple of weeks ago and would’ve picked him up if he were available (instead of Felipe Lopez). His true position on a baseball team is that of a utility infielder, but hitting #2 on a potent Cubs’ offense and his approach at the plate won’t hurt you. For you Roto-leaguers, I think he can hit over .285-.290, score 80+ runs, and will steal 25+ stolen bases.
2B, Dan Uggla—I mentioned in my Hitters’ First Quarter Report that Uggla has the ability to be the second best 2B in fantasy baseball, but just like Silver, his strikeout rate is alarming. Silver sums it best by saying that Uggla “has too many holes in his swings.” Nevertheless, based on his power numbers, we both feel Uggla is the REAL deal.
1B, Connor Jackson—We both agree that he’s for REAL.
C, Mike Napoli—Silver believes that Napoli’s power numbers are for REAL, but I think the low batting average (and based on his history, it will be difficult for him to get it higher than .250), his KO rate (strikes out roughly every 3 at-bats), and the fact that backup Angels’ catcher, Jeff Mathis already has 77 at-bats (to Napoli’s 103) and that leads me to conclude that he may not necessarily be a fluke, but he is not the best option at catcher for your fantasy team.
RP, Brian Wilson—Silver has him as a FLUKE because Wilson was saving 71% of the Giants’ victories. I believe, however, that the reason that Wilson is a major FLUKE is because his WHIP is at 1.64. No other RP with 10+ saves has a WHIP that high, except for Jason Isringhausen (1.78) and Eric Gagne (2.02) and they both eventually lost their jobs as closers (almost at the same time, by the way. Both are now on the DL). The 10+ K/9 rate is great, but only Frankie Rodriguez has a higher walk rate than Wilson and the H/9 rate is embarrassing with only the aforementioned Izzie and Gagne having rates higher than Wilson. At this rate, Wilson might end up losing the closer’s role soon (except that the Giants don’t have anybody else that can take the spot away from Wilson).
SP, Edinson Volquez—Silver thinks he’s for REAL. It seems that everybody in this world thinks Volquez is having the greatest breakout party since the i-Phone first became readily available. I’m not questioning the kid’s talent. He certainly has the goods and the right numbers to prove it. However, as I mentioned last week, until the walks go down, I’d be more cautious on Volquez’s hot start. Already, the BB/9 rate has slightly increased, but his H/9 has gone up slightly as well. I think he’s off to a FLUKY start and we’ve been burned by former Texas Rangers’ pitching prospects before (Volquez being an ex-Rangers’ prospect). Look for him to finish with a 1.30+ WHIP. The strikeouts will definitely be there, but the walks are insane for a pitcher who’s supposed to be part of the elite in terms of fantasy pitchers.
Ok, now on to my team. Felipe Lopez was not the SS I was hoping for. So far in the month of May, Lopez hit .226 with a pathetic .599 OPS. Meanwhile, teammate Cristian Guzman, who was available for me in early May, has been the second best hitting SS in our league for the month of May. Doh! Clint Barmes, a guy who I refused to pickup, ended up hitting .391 with a 1.077 OPS. Double Doh!!! All the warning signs were there, but I was blinded by Lopez’s hot streak in April. In my defense, the list of SS available was pretty thin after that first week in May. You guys saw the list in early May, it was very demoralizing. However, since Lopez is deciding to give every Felipe in this world a bad name, I had no choice but to succumb to the fact that I will be playing musical chairs at SS, either until Tulowitzki proves he’s back to his 2007 form or for the rest of the season (which defeats the purpose of keeping Tulowitzki for the 2008 campaign, geez!). There’s plenty of underachieving SS available in my free agent pool and for the next scoring period, Orlando Cabrera gets the first crack to see if he can be a formidable replacement on my roster at short (hey, a guy who is concern about his stats as much as I am is always a good sign! Think Rickey Davis when he was trying to achieve his first triple-double), which is proving to be a curse-filled position for me.
So we turn from my season-long SS saga to the fall of Nick Swisher who was my first pick in this year’s draft (a second rounder as I traded away my 2008 first round pick. Long story). Swisher was a great pick at that time because he qualified at multiple positions. It was a luxury to have a guy who had you covered in 2 OF positions and at 1B as I can concentrate on literally picking the best player available, regardless of position in subsequent rounds. Unfortunately, Swisher was nothing more than dead weight on my club. Final numbers for Swish went like this: .206 BA, .648 OPS, on pace to barely hit over 10+ homers for this season (when he was projected to hit 33), and was having career lows in Iso Power, and in the SECA categories. Worst of all, his Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) (look all the way to the bottom of this article for explanation of this stat) was at 28%. Combine that with a 3.24 RC/27 and you can’t even conclude that Swisher is just plain unlucky this early in this season, but that he might really be this bad! This is Felipe Lopez bad here! Swisher was replaced by Shane Victorino, who won’t hit for power, but at least he’s more consistent than Swisher at this point and is a threat for stolen bases, already on pace to steal 30. The on-base% is low for my taste, but Juan Pierre who is notoriously known for his low on-base% has proven to be a solid option in the OF for both H2H and ROTO leagues alike as his speed has been his meal ticket to fantasy rosters for years now. Also, you can’t ignore the fact that Victorino, over the last 21 days of play has been the second best CF in our league, with only Josh Hamilton in his way for first. Victorino was also a player that I coveted before the draft and now I finally have room for him in my roster. Here’s hoping he’s a better selection than Felipe Lopez.
I finally had to rid myself of Fausto Carmona. The inconsistency, the low K/9 rate, the walks and finally the hip injury was just too much to overcome for me. His replacement came down to Bronson Arroyo, Glen Perkins, and Brandon Backe—at the beginning of the 9th week in play. I chose Backe, but a new wildcard has entered the mix in Kevin Slowey who is only owned in 33% of Sportsline’s fantasy leagues and only a meager 1.2% at ESPN. He will more than likely be a two-start pitcher in fantasy week #10 and is worth the flier in all fantasy leagues right now. As far as the former three pitchers mentioned, keep a close eye on all of them. Arroyo might still be available in a lot of leagues and has a history of moderate success and has pitched better in his past three starts. Perkins, along with Slowey, and former Twin Matt Garza, has been a top prospect in the organization and was pitching well before he got a heavy dose of Yankee bats this week. And Backe was hyped in the off season as a pitcher with medium risk, medium reward late round selection. Since his World Series debut, he has started only 13 games in the past two seasons and when he does start, he has an extreme home-road splits that might be worth a spot start in daily leagues when he does indeed have a home game to pitch on a given week. The following table shows what these four pitchers have done in their last three starts (GdAO is Groundouts to Air Outs ratio):
INN Kd9 BBd9 Hd9 GdAO ERA WHIP BAA
Backe, Brandon SP HOU 18.7/7.2/1.0 /8.2/ 0.8 /4.34/1.02/0.239
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN 17.3/9.4/4.2/9.9 /0.9/ 3.12/1.56/0.271
Perkins, Glen RP MIN 18.0/3.5/2.0/11.5/0.6/4.00/1.50/0.315
Slowey, Kevin SP MIN 20.7/5.7/1.7/7.4 /1/1.74/1.02/0.227
Arroyo’s old K/9 rate was back to familiar territory but the walks are unbearable and he is prone to getting lit up based on his H/9. However, his three-year average is a lot lower than the average shown for his last three starts. If you have the roster spot, pick him up now. Continue to monitor Perkins and roll the dice with Slowey for the upcoming week.
The following pitchers are owned in less than 50% of baseball leagues at Sportsline or ESPN:
Dan Wheeler—With Troy Percival shelved on the DL for the Tampa Rays, Wheeler is the leading candidate to close games on an interim basis.
Jake Westbrook—As Carmona goes on the DL, Westbrook becomes Cleveland’s #3 starting pitcher. A possible 2-start pitcher in Week 10.
Pedro Martinez—Is expected to make his first start since coming off the DL June 3 against San Francisco.
Jason Bergmann—A fantasy dark horse in the off season (and being drafted by yours truly), Bergmann was sent down to the minors after struggling in his first three starts (I, in turn, dropped him from my roster), and after finding himself in the minors, has been lights out for the Washington Nationals (I picked him up in fantasy week 8, but have yet to start him though). He is more than likely available in your league. Forget the fact that he pitches for a horrible team, a good pitcher, is a good pitcher and this guy is a good pitcher.
Justin Masterson—As far as MLB transactions go, when a team calls up one of their top pitching prospects, fans and fantasy leaguers alike are highly excited and filled with anticipation to see if they can live up to the hype. Dice-K is on the DL and Masterson is rumored to take his turn in the rotation. In the off season, Sportsline mentioned that he doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters, but he induces a lot of ground outs. Well, in 2007, his K/9 rate was at a respectable 6.7. This minor league season, it’s at a whopping 8.9! Not bad for a groundball pitcher, huh? One big concern is that he also gives up a lot of walks. The BB/9 rate is almost at 3.5 in ’08 and in his two starts for the BoSox this season, his rate is at 5 already. He is a possible two-start pitcher for week 10. If you believe in the hype, go and grab him while he’s still available because odds are, he’s going by fast.
As written by,
Felipe Melecio
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Showing posts with label pitchers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pitchers. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Fantasy Baseball: First Quarter Report Card Part II
The following is a list of pitchers who passed the first quarter (or the first six weeks) of the MLB season with flying colors. Their performances were based on the point-value system of this league, and are based on the stats that were accumulated after all of the 05/11/08 games had ended. For a list of stats and their meanings, click here.
You will be reading about the Top 7 pitchers after six weeks of the season. I will summarize their outstanding start and will also determine what to expect in the second quarter of play.
1. Brandon Webb—WHAT TO LIKE? Webb is 8-0 with a WHIP of exactly 1 (I’m not even going to bother with decimal points!), a batting average against of .197, and an ERC of 1.85.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? A 6.59 K/9 is just a little low for my regular standards (by the way, it is my personal opinion that starting pitchers should be able to meet the following criteria: 7.5+ K9 and golf scores from the following: 3.5 BB/9, 8.5 H/9, and a WHIP of under 1.30. If these pitchers don’t meet most, if not all of the criteria, then there’s no use for them in the fantasy world). Not only does Webb not meet my K/9 standard (however, he is my fantasy ace. How’s that for a paradox?), but his rate is dragging behind his rate from last season, from his 3-year average, and even his career mark. This drop in the rate could be considered a slight concern as Webb’s strikeout totals have been somewhat inconsistent for most of his career.
ANALYSIS: Webb is having a career year in terms of ERA and WHIP. He is on pace to meet his 3-year average in Innings Pitched, strikeouts, and walks allowed. The one category in question is the hits allowed, which he’s on pace to finish at 169. He’s not going to shut down opposing batters every single game. He’s at 6.43 H/9 right now, but his 3-year average is around 8.40. Couple that with his low K/9 and you have a guy who can finish the season giving up 215 hits. He’s just not dominant enough to shut down opponents and as a sinkerball pitcher; he relies on hitters laying some wood on the ball. Sometimes, those balls put in play fall in for singles. Other than that, Webb is as consistent as you can get in the game and if you look up the word ACE in the dictionary, his picture would appear under the definition.
2. Cliff Lee—WHAT TO LIKE? Where to start is the better question. His ERC is at .54, a .60 WHIP, 7.86 K/9, and a 19.5 K/BB ratio! Wow, just wow!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? See stats above. Those numbers are so ridiculous, they’re almost alien. I’m not going to accuse the guy of steroid use, but those Kurt Warner conspiracy theorists should take a look at this guy as well (for those who don’t know, Gregg Easterbrook, one of my favorite columnists and a big influence in my writing had a running gag, nay, a conviction, that former NFL MVP QB, Kurt Warner was indeed an alien from another planet, playing football in human form. He probably wasn’t the only one with that thought, but he did have his own column). Warner—err Lee, has a BIPA of .202. Now you can take that in two ways: Lee is pitching so great, that he’s absolutely unhittable and is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Or you can be like me and believe that all pitchers eventually hit the BIPA norm of .300 sooner or later and that his numbers are going to skyrocket (in the wrong way) when hitters start figuring out what he’s doing differently this year, as opposed to years past.
ANALYSIS: See above. Lee was described to start the 2008 season as having “a trend of an increasing WHIP with a decreasing strikeout rate.” I do believe that is still true of this guy. You can look at his career numbers and judge for yourself, but his H/9 in the last three years is at 9.5 so he is not invincible. He should not be your team’s ace. He has the ability to be a good pitcher, but not someone you want carrying your fantasy pitching staff. You’re in a world of hurt if you do.
3. Ervin Santana—WHAT TO LIKE? .97 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 1.97 ERC. He has shown, heretofore, that his September performance from last season was no fluke.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Has a history of control problems and the inability to pitch on the road. His 3-year average WHIP is a concern.
ANALYSIS: It’s hard to tell with Santana because he is so young at 25 and it looks like his numbers from the first three years are not good indicators as to how he will do this season simply because he’s not the same pitcher or person from the last three years. He is very similar to Lee in the fact that both were demoted to the minors last season. The difference between him and Lee is that Lee is a veteran pitcher and we know what to expect from him. Santana still has a lot of untapped potential. The demotion from last season really did wonders for him and it has shown in his performance thus far. I’ll admit, I’m puzzled, but I do know that the .97 WHIP is a fluke, but more evidence from this year will be needed to make a complete analysis on this guy. Keep monitoring him and continue to use him as long as he’s pitching this well. He’s not an ace though and is not to be trusted with that role—yet.
4. Tim Lincecum—WHAT TO LIKE? 9.48 K/9 (Kerry Wood anyone?), 3.19 ERC, 5-1 pitching for the lowly Giants
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? That 1.25 WHIP is making me queasy and uncomfortable as his track record shows that he sometimes loses control of his stuff (Kerry Wood anyone?). His ERA is at 1.61. The ERC is still respectable, but something is just not adding up and the only conclusion I can come up is that his walks are going to drive you Lincecum owners completely crazy. Last season, his BB/9 was at exactly 4, he was projected by sportsline.com to hit the walk rate at 3.70+ and even if he finishes at 193 Innings Pitched (the average of the “on pace” and “projected” total of innings pitched), he’s still on pace to finish with a 3.5+BB/9. It is a major concern and Lincecum owners might want to trade him while his stock is still high. Keeper league owners might, MIGHT want to do the same as well, but the potential is there for Lincecum to be a dominant pitcher in the bigs.
ANALYSIS: As mentioned, Lincecum reminds me a lot Kerry Wood, except that Wood, in his best years, would be near unhittable. Lincecum’s H/9 is already at 8+ to start the season. Add to the fact that he can give up walks in bunches and fantasy baseball owners are in for a real roller coaster of a season. However, all hope is not lost for the season as the BIPA is already at .300, which means that there’s a good chance that he might finish the season with these numbers. The ERA will rise, but it won’t rise to ridiculous proportions. The WHIP should hover around 1.30 throughout the season. There’s still a good chance he might finish with a winning record just because he is so talented, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the .500 mark before the season ends. If you have the patience and immense pitching depth, Lincecum’s strikeouts alone should make him a good choice to start every week. You have been warned about the walks, nevertheless.
5. Roy Halladay—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.03 WHIP, 2.48 ERC, 4 CG!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Just like Webb, his K/9 is below 7. Halladay’s current 6.71 K/9 is actually above his 3-year average. The H/9 is also below his 3-year average, but he was projected to finish above the dreaded 8.5 based on his 8.6 H/9 from the past three years. Also has a disappointing 3-5 record pitching for the offensively anemic Toronto Blue Jays by 05/11/08.
ANALYSIS: Yes, Halladay is a very hittable pitcher! Halladay, however, pitches near perfect as he might scatter hits, but NOBODY is getting on base with a cheap walk. He has the ability to finish the season with a 1.5 BB/9! There is this thought among fantasy experts that pitchers who can’t get the K/9 between 7-7.5 are vulnerable to give up a lot of hits (as Halladay has shown already, unfortunately) because they’re not going to overpower hitters, meaning they’re going to give up a lot of earned runs and so rises the ERA. These pitchers have to be near perfect to be effective in this fantasy world of ours that we live. Even though Halladay has been categorized in that class of pitchers who can be described by that previous statement, Halladay is proving he’s not Brian Bannister. No, Halladay is a horse who will eat up a lot of innings and not give up walks at an alarming rate. He has shown he can pitch this way for years now so don’t worry about the lack of wins. They will come as they have before, and the low WHIP and ERA are good indicators that they will come in bunches like in years past.
6. Jake Peavey—WHAT TO LIKE? 8.56 K/9, 2.47 ERA; 1.08 WHIP
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? The fact that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. Oh, and that pesky sore elbow on the pitching arm. Yeah, that’s a big red flag if I ever saw one.
ANALYSIS: Peavy’s numbers were incredible as always and was off to a great start with the lowly Padres. The latest report showed no structural damage on his elbow after he had gone through an MRI. No timetable has been set for his comeback. It is a heavy blow for Peavy owners as pitchers like these don’t grow on trees. Don’t drop him just yet, but keep a very keen eye on his situation.
7. Chien-Ming Wang—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.13 WHIP, 2.39 ERC; 6-1 RECORD.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? He has the lowest strikeout rate among the top 7 at 6.23, however, he’s exceeding his projections and his K/9 from the last two seasons. Playing for a struggling Yankees team might affect his wins total, but was a healthy 6-1 by the end of the first quarter.
ANALYSIS: Wang is pitching very well thus far, but let’s not forget about his past. He usually gets a WHIP at about 1.25-1.30. Not bad, but that certainly doesn’t put you in the elite. Other pitchers who fall within this WHIP rate range are Braden Looper (ordinary 2:1 BB/K rate and the hit rate is well above 9+), Dana Eveland (.500 pitcher with a slightly higher K/9 ratio and sometimes has issues with control with a BB/9 of 3.80), and Mark Hendrickson (a ridiculously low K/9 of 3.75 and the H/9 is at 8.62). Those pitchers are top 60, but nowhere near the elite status that Wang is in, but all three have some similar weaknesses as Wang. Wang will give up hits and it’s doubtful he can keep his K/9 this high. What differentiates Wang from the Loopers of the fantasy world is that he does pitch for the Yankees, who might be struggling now, but by the end of the year, they should be one of the top teams in terms of W-L record AND he maintains the BB/9 rate at a very low rate (not as low as Halladay though). Wang must keep pitching this way in order to stay at the top with the elite.
THE NEXT 7
8. Jonathan Papelbon—THE GOOD: 11 Saves, .91 WHIP, 11.09 K/9, 1.75 ERC
THE BAD: He’s giving up a lot more hits than usual.
ANALYSIS: Let’s face it, he’s the best reliever in baseball, playing with arguably the best team in baseball. He’s simply the best.
9. Francisco Rodriguez—THE GOOD: 14 saves, a 2.64 ERC, and a H/9 of 6.14
THE BAD: A ridiculously low 6.14 (his 3-year average is at 12.07!) and a walk rate of 5.52 (3-year average of 4.02), and a high WHIP for a closer of 1.30 (1.15 is his 3-year average).
ANALYSIS: The ERA is the highest its been since 2003 and he’s on pace to not reach 90 K’s for the first time in his career, but he’s on pace to meet his projected goals in the walks, hits, and saves department and his WHIP from 2007 was at 1.25 and he’s capable of lowering the WHIP before the year is over. A solid reliever.
10. Carlos Zambrano—THE GOOD: 1.11 WHIP, 5-1 RECORD, 1.80 ERA
THE BAD: ERC is at 2.63 (still good, but almost a run higher than his actual ERA), K/9 is at 6.22 (3-year average is above 8+).
ANALYSIS: WHIP is at its lowest since 2005, but he’s on pace to not strikeout 170+ since 2003. Perhaps less strikeouts means less pitches thrown per game, which equals more durability. At any rate, pitching for the Chicago Cubs will almost guarantee he finishes with 15+ wins. A questionable ace, but definitely a stud.
11. George Sherrill—THE GOOD: 13 saves, 7.16 K/9, 3.42 ERC, 6.06 H/9 (lowest among the BIG FOUR relievers, with Joe Nathan being the other top save getter on the list).
THE BAD: 1.29 WHIP, which is a product of a 5.51 BB/9. The next RP with a similar WHIP is Jose Valverde who has a higher K/9 rate and a lower BB/9 than Sherrill gives up a lot of hits (the most hittable RP in the top 30 list based on his 8.84 H/9).
ANALYSIS: The reason Sherrill is racking up the saves is because the Orioles are winning and winning a lot of close games. The walk rate is unacceptably high even if its similar to K-Rod—Sherrill is not K-Rod! We don’t know if the O’s can keep winning at this rate, but so far it’s all good. Continue to ride the Sherrill hot streak, nay trade Sherrill while his value is this high.
12. Edinson Volquez—THE GOOD: 11.06 K/9, 1.23 WHIP, 1.06 ERA, 5-1 RECORD, 5.95 H/9
THE BAD: When I saw he only had a 2.17 K/BB ratio, I was puzzled as to why it was so low. Then I saw his BB/9 ratio and almost fainted. It’s at 5+! Worse, his ERC is at 2.53.
ANALYSIS: Volquez has become a national favorite among fantasy and non-fantasy fans of baseball. However, as you can see from the ridiculously high walk rate, he’s not as good as his ERA will indicate (that’s why ERA is no longer a viable way to measure a pitcher’s performance in fantasy—oddly enough, it is still used as THE stat to measure pitching performance in many roto leagues. And that is why I don’t like playing in roto-leagues), and unless he starts showing some control out there, I can’t buy the fact that he is a future ace for fantasy owners by 2010 (which would be the start of his third year as a full time starting pitcher). I firmly believe that as soon as hitters start figuring out this kid’s fastball, that hit rate will go up and all those guys Volquez is walking will finally come home. WHERE’S THAT PRECIOUS LOW ERA NOW? It will be up there matching his BB/9 at 5.00+.
13. Joe Nathan—THE GOOD: 12 saves, 1.14 WHIP, 9 K/9, 1.93 ERA
THE BAD: The ERC is at 2.80, 8.36 H/9 is a concern
ANALYSIS: The ERA will find its way to get over 2-2.10. As far as walks and hits go, he’s on pace to meet his 2008 projections. The K/9 rate is low, but he’s on pace to finish with his lowest K-total since becoming the Twins’ closer. Regardless, Nathan is a legit closer and a cornerstone in any fantasy pitching staff.
14. Aaron Cook—THE GOOD: 1.13 WHIP, 2.26 ERA, 6-1 RECORD
THE BAD: A 3.72 K/9 rate, .230 BIPA
ANALYSIS: It’s seems that every year, we get a really good stretch from Aaron Cook before the low K/9 rate catches up to him and drags him down the rest of the season. I have seen flashes from Cook like this before, but facts is facts, when a pitcher can’t strikeout batters, he has to be near perfect to eat up innings and be effective. Obviously, Cook is pitching as best he can as shown on the WHIP. However, the fact that the BIPA is only at .230 tells me that his great start to the season has been all luck and low skill. I don’t trust him and you should trust him either. Again, ride him out until its time for him to get dropped again or if you yourself are lucky enough, trade him at peak value and make out like a thief.
That ends Part II of this 2-part series. Last week, we talked about the top hitters who had the best first quarter of the season. This time, we talked about the pitchers. Of the 14, I say at least seven are the real deal, the other half are flukes and there’s a good chance that they might not show up on this list for the 2nd quarter. PLAY BALL!
You will be reading about the Top 7 pitchers after six weeks of the season. I will summarize their outstanding start and will also determine what to expect in the second quarter of play.
1. Brandon Webb—WHAT TO LIKE? Webb is 8-0 with a WHIP of exactly 1 (I’m not even going to bother with decimal points!), a batting average against of .197, and an ERC of 1.85.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? A 6.59 K/9 is just a little low for my regular standards (by the way, it is my personal opinion that starting pitchers should be able to meet the following criteria: 7.5+ K9 and golf scores from the following: 3.5 BB/9, 8.5 H/9, and a WHIP of under 1.30. If these pitchers don’t meet most, if not all of the criteria, then there’s no use for them in the fantasy world). Not only does Webb not meet my K/9 standard (however, he is my fantasy ace. How’s that for a paradox?), but his rate is dragging behind his rate from last season, from his 3-year average, and even his career mark. This drop in the rate could be considered a slight concern as Webb’s strikeout totals have been somewhat inconsistent for most of his career.
ANALYSIS: Webb is having a career year in terms of ERA and WHIP. He is on pace to meet his 3-year average in Innings Pitched, strikeouts, and walks allowed. The one category in question is the hits allowed, which he’s on pace to finish at 169. He’s not going to shut down opposing batters every single game. He’s at 6.43 H/9 right now, but his 3-year average is around 8.40. Couple that with his low K/9 and you have a guy who can finish the season giving up 215 hits. He’s just not dominant enough to shut down opponents and as a sinkerball pitcher; he relies on hitters laying some wood on the ball. Sometimes, those balls put in play fall in for singles. Other than that, Webb is as consistent as you can get in the game and if you look up the word ACE in the dictionary, his picture would appear under the definition.
2. Cliff Lee—WHAT TO LIKE? Where to start is the better question. His ERC is at .54, a .60 WHIP, 7.86 K/9, and a 19.5 K/BB ratio! Wow, just wow!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? See stats above. Those numbers are so ridiculous, they’re almost alien. I’m not going to accuse the guy of steroid use, but those Kurt Warner conspiracy theorists should take a look at this guy as well (for those who don’t know, Gregg Easterbrook, one of my favorite columnists and a big influence in my writing had a running gag, nay, a conviction, that former NFL MVP QB, Kurt Warner was indeed an alien from another planet, playing football in human form. He probably wasn’t the only one with that thought, but he did have his own column). Warner—err Lee, has a BIPA of .202. Now you can take that in two ways: Lee is pitching so great, that he’s absolutely unhittable and is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Or you can be like me and believe that all pitchers eventually hit the BIPA norm of .300 sooner or later and that his numbers are going to skyrocket (in the wrong way) when hitters start figuring out what he’s doing differently this year, as opposed to years past.
ANALYSIS: See above. Lee was described to start the 2008 season as having “a trend of an increasing WHIP with a decreasing strikeout rate.” I do believe that is still true of this guy. You can look at his career numbers and judge for yourself, but his H/9 in the last three years is at 9.5 so he is not invincible. He should not be your team’s ace. He has the ability to be a good pitcher, but not someone you want carrying your fantasy pitching staff. You’re in a world of hurt if you do.
3. Ervin Santana—WHAT TO LIKE? .97 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 1.97 ERC. He has shown, heretofore, that his September performance from last season was no fluke.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Has a history of control problems and the inability to pitch on the road. His 3-year average WHIP is a concern.
ANALYSIS: It’s hard to tell with Santana because he is so young at 25 and it looks like his numbers from the first three years are not good indicators as to how he will do this season simply because he’s not the same pitcher or person from the last three years. He is very similar to Lee in the fact that both were demoted to the minors last season. The difference between him and Lee is that Lee is a veteran pitcher and we know what to expect from him. Santana still has a lot of untapped potential. The demotion from last season really did wonders for him and it has shown in his performance thus far. I’ll admit, I’m puzzled, but I do know that the .97 WHIP is a fluke, but more evidence from this year will be needed to make a complete analysis on this guy. Keep monitoring him and continue to use him as long as he’s pitching this well. He’s not an ace though and is not to be trusted with that role—yet.
4. Tim Lincecum—WHAT TO LIKE? 9.48 K/9 (Kerry Wood anyone?), 3.19 ERC, 5-1 pitching for the lowly Giants
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? That 1.25 WHIP is making me queasy and uncomfortable as his track record shows that he sometimes loses control of his stuff (Kerry Wood anyone?). His ERA is at 1.61. The ERC is still respectable, but something is just not adding up and the only conclusion I can come up is that his walks are going to drive you Lincecum owners completely crazy. Last season, his BB/9 was at exactly 4, he was projected by sportsline.com to hit the walk rate at 3.70+ and even if he finishes at 193 Innings Pitched (the average of the “on pace” and “projected” total of innings pitched), he’s still on pace to finish with a 3.5+BB/9. It is a major concern and Lincecum owners might want to trade him while his stock is still high. Keeper league owners might, MIGHT want to do the same as well, but the potential is there for Lincecum to be a dominant pitcher in the bigs.
ANALYSIS: As mentioned, Lincecum reminds me a lot Kerry Wood, except that Wood, in his best years, would be near unhittable. Lincecum’s H/9 is already at 8+ to start the season. Add to the fact that he can give up walks in bunches and fantasy baseball owners are in for a real roller coaster of a season. However, all hope is not lost for the season as the BIPA is already at .300, which means that there’s a good chance that he might finish the season with these numbers. The ERA will rise, but it won’t rise to ridiculous proportions. The WHIP should hover around 1.30 throughout the season. There’s still a good chance he might finish with a winning record just because he is so talented, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the .500 mark before the season ends. If you have the patience and immense pitching depth, Lincecum’s strikeouts alone should make him a good choice to start every week. You have been warned about the walks, nevertheless.
5. Roy Halladay—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.03 WHIP, 2.48 ERC, 4 CG!
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? Just like Webb, his K/9 is below 7. Halladay’s current 6.71 K/9 is actually above his 3-year average. The H/9 is also below his 3-year average, but he was projected to finish above the dreaded 8.5 based on his 8.6 H/9 from the past three years. Also has a disappointing 3-5 record pitching for the offensively anemic Toronto Blue Jays by 05/11/08.
ANALYSIS: Yes, Halladay is a very hittable pitcher! Halladay, however, pitches near perfect as he might scatter hits, but NOBODY is getting on base with a cheap walk. He has the ability to finish the season with a 1.5 BB/9! There is this thought among fantasy experts that pitchers who can’t get the K/9 between 7-7.5 are vulnerable to give up a lot of hits (as Halladay has shown already, unfortunately) because they’re not going to overpower hitters, meaning they’re going to give up a lot of earned runs and so rises the ERA. These pitchers have to be near perfect to be effective in this fantasy world of ours that we live. Even though Halladay has been categorized in that class of pitchers who can be described by that previous statement, Halladay is proving he’s not Brian Bannister. No, Halladay is a horse who will eat up a lot of innings and not give up walks at an alarming rate. He has shown he can pitch this way for years now so don’t worry about the lack of wins. They will come as they have before, and the low WHIP and ERA are good indicators that they will come in bunches like in years past.
6. Jake Peavey—WHAT TO LIKE? 8.56 K/9, 2.47 ERA; 1.08 WHIP
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? The fact that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. Oh, and that pesky sore elbow on the pitching arm. Yeah, that’s a big red flag if I ever saw one.
ANALYSIS: Peavy’s numbers were incredible as always and was off to a great start with the lowly Padres. The latest report showed no structural damage on his elbow after he had gone through an MRI. No timetable has been set for his comeback. It is a heavy blow for Peavy owners as pitchers like these don’t grow on trees. Don’t drop him just yet, but keep a very keen eye on his situation.
7. Chien-Ming Wang—WHAT TO LIKE? 1.13 WHIP, 2.39 ERC; 6-1 RECORD.
WHAT NOT TO LIKE? He has the lowest strikeout rate among the top 7 at 6.23, however, he’s exceeding his projections and his K/9 from the last two seasons. Playing for a struggling Yankees team might affect his wins total, but was a healthy 6-1 by the end of the first quarter.
ANALYSIS: Wang is pitching very well thus far, but let’s not forget about his past. He usually gets a WHIP at about 1.25-1.30. Not bad, but that certainly doesn’t put you in the elite. Other pitchers who fall within this WHIP rate range are Braden Looper (ordinary 2:1 BB/K rate and the hit rate is well above 9+), Dana Eveland (.500 pitcher with a slightly higher K/9 ratio and sometimes has issues with control with a BB/9 of 3.80), and Mark Hendrickson (a ridiculously low K/9 of 3.75 and the H/9 is at 8.62). Those pitchers are top 60, but nowhere near the elite status that Wang is in, but all three have some similar weaknesses as Wang. Wang will give up hits and it’s doubtful he can keep his K/9 this high. What differentiates Wang from the Loopers of the fantasy world is that he does pitch for the Yankees, who might be struggling now, but by the end of the year, they should be one of the top teams in terms of W-L record AND he maintains the BB/9 rate at a very low rate (not as low as Halladay though). Wang must keep pitching this way in order to stay at the top with the elite.
THE NEXT 7
8. Jonathan Papelbon—THE GOOD: 11 Saves, .91 WHIP, 11.09 K/9, 1.75 ERC
THE BAD: He’s giving up a lot more hits than usual.
ANALYSIS: Let’s face it, he’s the best reliever in baseball, playing with arguably the best team in baseball. He’s simply the best.
9. Francisco Rodriguez—THE GOOD: 14 saves, a 2.64 ERC, and a H/9 of 6.14
THE BAD: A ridiculously low 6.14 (his 3-year average is at 12.07!) and a walk rate of 5.52 (3-year average of 4.02), and a high WHIP for a closer of 1.30 (1.15 is his 3-year average).
ANALYSIS: The ERA is the highest its been since 2003 and he’s on pace to not reach 90 K’s for the first time in his career, but he’s on pace to meet his projected goals in the walks, hits, and saves department and his WHIP from 2007 was at 1.25 and he’s capable of lowering the WHIP before the year is over. A solid reliever.
10. Carlos Zambrano—THE GOOD: 1.11 WHIP, 5-1 RECORD, 1.80 ERA
THE BAD: ERC is at 2.63 (still good, but almost a run higher than his actual ERA), K/9 is at 6.22 (3-year average is above 8+).
ANALYSIS: WHIP is at its lowest since 2005, but he’s on pace to not strikeout 170+ since 2003. Perhaps less strikeouts means less pitches thrown per game, which equals more durability. At any rate, pitching for the Chicago Cubs will almost guarantee he finishes with 15+ wins. A questionable ace, but definitely a stud.
11. George Sherrill—THE GOOD: 13 saves, 7.16 K/9, 3.42 ERC, 6.06 H/9 (lowest among the BIG FOUR relievers, with Joe Nathan being the other top save getter on the list).
THE BAD: 1.29 WHIP, which is a product of a 5.51 BB/9. The next RP with a similar WHIP is Jose Valverde who has a higher K/9 rate and a lower BB/9 than Sherrill gives up a lot of hits (the most hittable RP in the top 30 list based on his 8.84 H/9).
ANALYSIS: The reason Sherrill is racking up the saves is because the Orioles are winning and winning a lot of close games. The walk rate is unacceptably high even if its similar to K-Rod—Sherrill is not K-Rod! We don’t know if the O’s can keep winning at this rate, but so far it’s all good. Continue to ride the Sherrill hot streak, nay trade Sherrill while his value is this high.
12. Edinson Volquez—THE GOOD: 11.06 K/9, 1.23 WHIP, 1.06 ERA, 5-1 RECORD, 5.95 H/9
THE BAD: When I saw he only had a 2.17 K/BB ratio, I was puzzled as to why it was so low. Then I saw his BB/9 ratio and almost fainted. It’s at 5+! Worse, his ERC is at 2.53.
ANALYSIS: Volquez has become a national favorite among fantasy and non-fantasy fans of baseball. However, as you can see from the ridiculously high walk rate, he’s not as good as his ERA will indicate (that’s why ERA is no longer a viable way to measure a pitcher’s performance in fantasy—oddly enough, it is still used as THE stat to measure pitching performance in many roto leagues. And that is why I don’t like playing in roto-leagues), and unless he starts showing some control out there, I can’t buy the fact that he is a future ace for fantasy owners by 2010 (which would be the start of his third year as a full time starting pitcher). I firmly believe that as soon as hitters start figuring out this kid’s fastball, that hit rate will go up and all those guys Volquez is walking will finally come home. WHERE’S THAT PRECIOUS LOW ERA NOW? It will be up there matching his BB/9 at 5.00+.
13. Joe Nathan—THE GOOD: 12 saves, 1.14 WHIP, 9 K/9, 1.93 ERA
THE BAD: The ERC is at 2.80, 8.36 H/9 is a concern
ANALYSIS: The ERA will find its way to get over 2-2.10. As far as walks and hits go, he’s on pace to meet his 2008 projections. The K/9 rate is low, but he’s on pace to finish with his lowest K-total since becoming the Twins’ closer. Regardless, Nathan is a legit closer and a cornerstone in any fantasy pitching staff.
14. Aaron Cook—THE GOOD: 1.13 WHIP, 2.26 ERA, 6-1 RECORD
THE BAD: A 3.72 K/9 rate, .230 BIPA
ANALYSIS: It’s seems that every year, we get a really good stretch from Aaron Cook before the low K/9 rate catches up to him and drags him down the rest of the season. I have seen flashes from Cook like this before, but facts is facts, when a pitcher can’t strikeout batters, he has to be near perfect to eat up innings and be effective. Obviously, Cook is pitching as best he can as shown on the WHIP. However, the fact that the BIPA is only at .230 tells me that his great start to the season has been all luck and low skill. I don’t trust him and you should trust him either. Again, ride him out until its time for him to get dropped again or if you yourself are lucky enough, trade him at peak value and make out like a thief.
That ends Part II of this 2-part series. Last week, we talked about the top hitters who had the best first quarter of the season. This time, we talked about the pitchers. Of the 14, I say at least seven are the real deal, the other half are flukes and there’s a good chance that they might not show up on this list for the 2nd quarter. PLAY BALL!
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Micro to Macro: The Fantasy Baseball Short Stop Famine
My name is Felipe Melecio. I’ve been playing fantasy baseball since 2001. I’ve played all sorts of fantasy baseball games from salary cap to traditional 5x5, have won league titles at Sandbox, Yahoo, and Sportsline and have finally settled to concentrate all of my attention on a keeper league, fantasy-point style, head-2-head league, playing against competitive, knowledgeable people from all over the country. I’m a big fan of the game and I’m always open to learn more and more about the nuances of the game of baseball. For the next several weeks, this weekly article will focus on my fantasy baseball team and in my quick synopsis of my team, I’m hoping that I can delve into concerning matters regarding my team that more than likely you, the reader, will definitely be able to relate. Along with bad, I will also be discussing the positives that are occurring in this MLB season as well. Look at it as a focus in the micro to make sense of the macro baseball world around us.
As mentioned, I am in a keeper league and because of that I had to keep some players from last year’s roster. First off, Brandon Webb, starting the season 7-0 with an ERA of 2.48 and the WHIP is great at 1.06. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as I wanted, but with a batting average against (BAA) of .197 and a Component ERA (ERC) of 2.01 (ERC is a pitcher's ERA based on the hits and walks he allowed, rather than actual runs), he is proving why he’s one of the elite starting pitchers in all of baseball. Next, Fausto Carmona, who has been very bi-polar in his starts this year. One week he will look amazing, while the next he will have you pulling out your hair. Proving once again that ERA is overrated (he has it at 2.60), the ERC (stands at 5.27) and the WHIP is a horrible 1.70. I’m not even going to talk about his ridiculous strikeout rate (not that there’s anything to talk about anyway). It has been an unacceptable early performance from a guy who was a Cy Young candidate last season. Carmona was a lot of people’s keeper or early to mid round selection and is too early to release him, especially based on his breakout performance from last season and he does have a win-loss record of 3-1 so his team will help him get some wins. If you have him, you should be like me and continue to ride it out until he (hopefully) finds his groove again. Continue to insert other pitchers in the meantime. And my final pitching keeper was Chad Billingsley, who was always the odd man out in the Dodger rotation as the unofficial 6th or 7th starter in the bullpen when he was first called up to the team and has turn into a bonafide starting pitcher. The ERC at 4.88 and the WHP at 1.59 should worry some owners, but you have to remember that his first start was interrupted by a rain delay, then he would twice come out of the bullpen in the first week of the season, throwing his numbers out of orbit. One should consider that in his last 4 starts, he’s pitched deeper and deeper into games. The final proof that he should be improving as the season moves along is his year-to-date (ytd) strikeout rate of 13.01 (leads the Majors in that category with pitchers who have at minimum of 20 innings pitched) and 14.5 in his last four starts. If you have him on your roster, continue to start him with confidence as I think this kid can dominate hitters soon. If you think you can trade for him, he has been getting dealt for players like Raul Ibanez, Gil Meche, Zach Duke, and Michael Bourn. And those trades were done in the last 24-48 hours! Jump on him while you can still get him cheap!
As far as hitters go, Chase Utley was recently named a HERO for the month of April on this website. No further explanation needed on this player. He is awesome! Victor Martinez gave me the scare of a lifetime when on opening day, in an attempt to stretch a single into a double, he pulls up lame and holding his hamstring. Luckily, not only did he not go into the DL because of it, but he was playing at 100% less than a week later and hasn’t missed much action since the first week. V-Mart has yet to hit a homerun this season, but at this point, it’s not a matter of how, but of when, as in “when is he going to start going on a power streak in order to reach the 25 homeruns he was projected to hit this season?” He is one of the best catchers in the game and if you have him, just ignore him and get back to me by mid-June. You shall not be disappointed when he starts putting up big numbers. Besides, who else are you going to insert at your backstop position? Popular pick ups from waivers in the last 7 days include Jeff Clement, Paul Bako (an obvious Dusty Baker favorite), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (seems to only be playing every other day as of this writing), and Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, and Jose Molina who are respectable alternatives, but nowhere near the caliber that Martinez is. Trust me, continue to show patience on this guy. If you do indeed don’t have the patience for V-Mart AND have extra roster spots to fill, then immediately pick up Ryan Doumit (who is posting better numbers than Martinez, in case you haven’t noticed). We all know Doumit’s life story: impressed in 2005, lost the catching spot to Ronny Paulino in 2006, showed he could hit in 2007 as a part time hitter, and coming into 2008, he was a man with no position for the lowly Pirates. Well, it looks like the Pirates are finally giving him a chance to get some at bats together (on pace to reach over 450 at bats for the first time in his career) and could really produce this season. Nevertheless, he is no V-Mart. Ryan Braun was in my minor league slot (we get two minor league slots) and he wound up winning NL rookie of the year. He was magnificent last season and was a no-brainer to be kept for this year. He went into a slump in mid-April and missed a few games due to a minor shoulder injury and to take a break from said slump. After that, he’s been a monster. Matter of fact, in his last 7 games, he’s had 2 homers and 9 RBIs. Don’t worry much about Braun and continue to have him on cruise control.
Which brings us to the 7th and last keeper and the subject matter for the rest of this article—Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo got off to a horrendous start this season. I’m talking about the type of start that validates such fallacies as the “sophomore jinx” but it happened to Tulo. By the end of the third week of the season, it looked like Tulowitzki was on the verge of breaking away from his early season slump, he had a mediocre 4th week, and then was forced to leave the 04/29/08 game against the Giants due to a quad injury. Before the injury, Tulowitzki was stuck in a three-game hitless streak. Tulowitzki will return by the All-Star break—by the earliest. Which brings us Tulowitzki owners to a dilemma: Who do I/we replace him with?
We first look at teammate Clint Barmes who first became a known commodity in 2005 when he was given 350 at-bats that season. He was a very popular waiver pick up that year, but aside from the decent .288 batting average, his OPS were very low, even for a shortstop and in 2006, when he had 478 at bats, his overall numbers were just putrid. Right now, his Slugging% is a good looking .480, but only a .307 On-base%. He’s a really popular pickup this week, but I say there’s other SS out there who are worth a roster spot on your team.
Erick Aybar is hitting .298 for the season and has picked up regular playing time since Howie Kendrick went down with an injury for the Angels. He doesn’t hit for much power, his RC/27 (which estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score) score is in the low 4s and doesn’t walk much. I have no idea how this guy is able to score so many points in our fantasy points league seeing how he has only 5 doubles all year long. Roto-leaguers might want to have him because he’s on pace to steal 25 bases. I’m just baffled that 99% of ESPN fantasy baseball league owners have Aybar on their roster. I’m sorry but I like my SS/MIs to put up bigger numbers than the ones that are provided by Aybar. I’ll pass, thank you much.
We now move to Ryan Theriot who might be the best option so far and is owned by 84% of http://www.sportsline.com/ fantasy baseball owners. He’ll steal more bases than Aybar and has an overall better season than him as well (.316 avg.; .800 OPS; 5.52 RC/27). Other popular SS that might still be available are Orlando Cabrera (who you might want to pick up with the hopes he picks up the hitting really soon. I wouldn’t count on it though), Cristian Guzman (who’s having a career year so far this season, but we’ve all been hurt by Guzman before. Never again!), Jhonny Peralta (aside from his 25 homerun potential, has really done nothing since his breakout 2005 season), J.J. Hardy (who is described as a streaky hitter. Right now, he’s going through the wrong kind of streak at this moment), Bobby Crosby (low batting average, low OPS, but the RBIs are coming in real handy at the moment), Yuniesky Betancourt (real ordinary player, but .290 average is his one saving grace). As you can see, Theriot would be the logical choice and a fairly good chance he might still be available in your league. Also, be sure to look out for Yunel Escobar from the Atlanta Braves who is having a very good season. You might just be lucky enough to pick him up (who is at 96% ownership at Sportsline). If you’re like me and you HAVE to choose a player between Theriot and Escobar, you can continue to ride the Guzman hot streak until it runs out of fuel....
... or you could be like me and go with personal favorite, Felipe Lopez. Lopez, who just knocked in his 300th career RBI over the weekend, is currently on a six game winning streak, was relegated to a part time player from April 10-17. Since April 18, Lopez has hit .323 and has registered an OPS of .804 (by the way, I believe that a reliable baseball player should be able to post a minimum of a .790 OPS percentage). He has struck out as much as he walked, has 11 RBIs (only Miguel Tejada has more RBIs than Lopez during that same time span among SS), plays in the supposed hitters’ park that is Nationals Park, and best of all, he’s finally getting regular playing time after losing the everyday job at SS and 2B during spring training. The last time he’s hit 20+ homers was in 2005 when he was jacking them out of Cincinnati. Perhaps the new ballpark in Washington will lead him to return to his 2005 form. He also has a recent history of reaching an on-base percentage of over .350 (unlike Barmes, Cabrera, etc). He is eligible at 2B, SS, OF (or LF for those who split the OF positions into three). You can either get a big name like Hardy or Crosby, but why not go with the hot hand who might prove to be the most consistent player as the season progresses?
As mentioned, I am in a keeper league and because of that I had to keep some players from last year’s roster. First off, Brandon Webb, starting the season 7-0 with an ERA of 2.48 and the WHIP is great at 1.06. The strikeout rate isn’t as high as I wanted, but with a batting average against (BAA) of .197 and a Component ERA (ERC) of 2.01 (ERC is a pitcher's ERA based on the hits and walks he allowed, rather than actual runs), he is proving why he’s one of the elite starting pitchers in all of baseball. Next, Fausto Carmona, who has been very bi-polar in his starts this year. One week he will look amazing, while the next he will have you pulling out your hair. Proving once again that ERA is overrated (he has it at 2.60), the ERC (stands at 5.27) and the WHIP is a horrible 1.70. I’m not even going to talk about his ridiculous strikeout rate (not that there’s anything to talk about anyway). It has been an unacceptable early performance from a guy who was a Cy Young candidate last season. Carmona was a lot of people’s keeper or early to mid round selection and is too early to release him, especially based on his breakout performance from last season and he does have a win-loss record of 3-1 so his team will help him get some wins. If you have him, you should be like me and continue to ride it out until he (hopefully) finds his groove again. Continue to insert other pitchers in the meantime. And my final pitching keeper was Chad Billingsley, who was always the odd man out in the Dodger rotation as the unofficial 6th or 7th starter in the bullpen when he was first called up to the team and has turn into a bonafide starting pitcher. The ERC at 4.88 and the WHP at 1.59 should worry some owners, but you have to remember that his first start was interrupted by a rain delay, then he would twice come out of the bullpen in the first week of the season, throwing his numbers out of orbit. One should consider that in his last 4 starts, he’s pitched deeper and deeper into games. The final proof that he should be improving as the season moves along is his year-to-date (ytd) strikeout rate of 13.01 (leads the Majors in that category with pitchers who have at minimum of 20 innings pitched) and 14.5 in his last four starts. If you have him on your roster, continue to start him with confidence as I think this kid can dominate hitters soon. If you think you can trade for him, he has been getting dealt for players like Raul Ibanez, Gil Meche, Zach Duke, and Michael Bourn. And those trades were done in the last 24-48 hours! Jump on him while you can still get him cheap!
As far as hitters go, Chase Utley was recently named a HERO for the month of April on this website. No further explanation needed on this player. He is awesome! Victor Martinez gave me the scare of a lifetime when on opening day, in an attempt to stretch a single into a double, he pulls up lame and holding his hamstring. Luckily, not only did he not go into the DL because of it, but he was playing at 100% less than a week later and hasn’t missed much action since the first week. V-Mart has yet to hit a homerun this season, but at this point, it’s not a matter of how, but of when, as in “when is he going to start going on a power streak in order to reach the 25 homeruns he was projected to hit this season?” He is one of the best catchers in the game and if you have him, just ignore him and get back to me by mid-June. You shall not be disappointed when he starts putting up big numbers. Besides, who else are you going to insert at your backstop position? Popular pick ups from waivers in the last 7 days include Jeff Clement, Paul Bako (an obvious Dusty Baker favorite), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (seems to only be playing every other day as of this writing), and Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, and Jose Molina who are respectable alternatives, but nowhere near the caliber that Martinez is. Trust me, continue to show patience on this guy. If you do indeed don’t have the patience for V-Mart AND have extra roster spots to fill, then immediately pick up Ryan Doumit (who is posting better numbers than Martinez, in case you haven’t noticed). We all know Doumit’s life story: impressed in 2005, lost the catching spot to Ronny Paulino in 2006, showed he could hit in 2007 as a part time hitter, and coming into 2008, he was a man with no position for the lowly Pirates. Well, it looks like the Pirates are finally giving him a chance to get some at bats together (on pace to reach over 450 at bats for the first time in his career) and could really produce this season. Nevertheless, he is no V-Mart. Ryan Braun was in my minor league slot (we get two minor league slots) and he wound up winning NL rookie of the year. He was magnificent last season and was a no-brainer to be kept for this year. He went into a slump in mid-April and missed a few games due to a minor shoulder injury and to take a break from said slump. After that, he’s been a monster. Matter of fact, in his last 7 games, he’s had 2 homers and 9 RBIs. Don’t worry much about Braun and continue to have him on cruise control.
Which brings us to the 7th and last keeper and the subject matter for the rest of this article—Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo got off to a horrendous start this season. I’m talking about the type of start that validates such fallacies as the “sophomore jinx” but it happened to Tulo. By the end of the third week of the season, it looked like Tulowitzki was on the verge of breaking away from his early season slump, he had a mediocre 4th week, and then was forced to leave the 04/29/08 game against the Giants due to a quad injury. Before the injury, Tulowitzki was stuck in a three-game hitless streak. Tulowitzki will return by the All-Star break—by the earliest. Which brings us Tulowitzki owners to a dilemma: Who do I/we replace him with?
We first look at teammate Clint Barmes who first became a known commodity in 2005 when he was given 350 at-bats that season. He was a very popular waiver pick up that year, but aside from the decent .288 batting average, his OPS were very low, even for a shortstop and in 2006, when he had 478 at bats, his overall numbers were just putrid. Right now, his Slugging% is a good looking .480, but only a .307 On-base%. He’s a really popular pickup this week, but I say there’s other SS out there who are worth a roster spot on your team.
Erick Aybar is hitting .298 for the season and has picked up regular playing time since Howie Kendrick went down with an injury for the Angels. He doesn’t hit for much power, his RC/27 (which estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score) score is in the low 4s and doesn’t walk much. I have no idea how this guy is able to score so many points in our fantasy points league seeing how he has only 5 doubles all year long. Roto-leaguers might want to have him because he’s on pace to steal 25 bases. I’m just baffled that 99% of ESPN fantasy baseball league owners have Aybar on their roster. I’m sorry but I like my SS/MIs to put up bigger numbers than the ones that are provided by Aybar. I’ll pass, thank you much.
We now move to Ryan Theriot who might be the best option so far and is owned by 84% of http://www.sportsline.com/ fantasy baseball owners. He’ll steal more bases than Aybar and has an overall better season than him as well (.316 avg.; .800 OPS; 5.52 RC/27). Other popular SS that might still be available are Orlando Cabrera (who you might want to pick up with the hopes he picks up the hitting really soon. I wouldn’t count on it though), Cristian Guzman (who’s having a career year so far this season, but we’ve all been hurt by Guzman before. Never again!), Jhonny Peralta (aside from his 25 homerun potential, has really done nothing since his breakout 2005 season), J.J. Hardy (who is described as a streaky hitter. Right now, he’s going through the wrong kind of streak at this moment), Bobby Crosby (low batting average, low OPS, but the RBIs are coming in real handy at the moment), Yuniesky Betancourt (real ordinary player, but .290 average is his one saving grace). As you can see, Theriot would be the logical choice and a fairly good chance he might still be available in your league. Also, be sure to look out for Yunel Escobar from the Atlanta Braves who is having a very good season. You might just be lucky enough to pick him up (who is at 96% ownership at Sportsline). If you’re like me and you HAVE to choose a player between Theriot and Escobar, you can continue to ride the Guzman hot streak until it runs out of fuel....
... or you could be like me and go with personal favorite, Felipe Lopez. Lopez, who just knocked in his 300th career RBI over the weekend, is currently on a six game winning streak, was relegated to a part time player from April 10-17. Since April 18, Lopez has hit .323 and has registered an OPS of .804 (by the way, I believe that a reliable baseball player should be able to post a minimum of a .790 OPS percentage). He has struck out as much as he walked, has 11 RBIs (only Miguel Tejada has more RBIs than Lopez during that same time span among SS), plays in the supposed hitters’ park that is Nationals Park, and best of all, he’s finally getting regular playing time after losing the everyday job at SS and 2B during spring training. The last time he’s hit 20+ homers was in 2005 when he was jacking them out of Cincinnati. Perhaps the new ballpark in Washington will lead him to return to his 2005 form. He also has a recent history of reaching an on-base percentage of over .350 (unlike Barmes, Cabrera, etc). He is eligible at 2B, SS, OF (or LF for those who split the OF positions into three). You can either get a big name like Hardy or Crosby, but why not go with the hot hand who might prove to be the most consistent player as the season progresses?
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